Long term profit is seeing the big picture

#1
I am sorry if I have been beating a dead horse lately. I tore my calf muscle really bad and the combination of pain, disruption of work and additional medical visits has understandably made me a little tense. I had an MRI today so I should know soon if they will operate to make sure I don't pull my achilles tendon the rest of the way off my calf. For anyone I was uncharacteristically short with I apologize.

What got me going to begin with is this notion to hit the casinos as hard as you can with a huge spread to have as high an EV as you can regardless of how that affects your games and the game in general. If that is what you want to do I can't stop you but I wish you would consider the ways you have at your disposal to up your EV that have an upside rather than a downside.

The downside of the high spread:

It is not so much the spread itself but the size of the max bet as some have correctly pointed out but the spread for the same max bet has some heat considerations. It is about staying within the tolerance of the casino so there is no one size fits all answer to what is a smart limit on spread or max bet is. The better the game the more heat you should expect to encounter. When you press beyond casino tolerance two things can happen. You kill the game for yourself or they decide for whatever reason that they need to make the rules or pen more unfavorable killing the good game for everyone. Maybe they don't want all the extra staff necessary to weed out those exceeding their tolerance level. Maybe they are worried about legal concerns. Maybe they just don't want to be so vulnerable to big losses in the future. No matter what being greedy and pushing the store's tolerance level is bad for everyone. I didn't even talk about the affect on variance a large spread.

What is in your power to up your EV with an upside:

SCORE as the most important thing to maximize not EV.
Multiple hands reduce variance.
Always insure blackjack at all but minimum bet.
Realize insuring good hands at small insurance disadvantage reduces variance while increasing long term EV.
Try to find a store that has LS, a very important rule, and learn the indices.
Play a system that is strong overall (BC, PE and IC).
Learn to use risk averse indices.
Add a side count or two to your game.
You should wong out when the shoe has a poor chance of recovery.
Penetration is the most important factor when choosing a game.
After a big shoe leave win or lose.
You can decrease your spread and win more by following the above advice.
Shorter sessions now have higher EV and lower variance.

All of the above strengthens your game, increases longevity, increases your long term EV, lowers your variance, increases your SCORE and allows a smaller spread to be more profitable. All it takes is a little effort. Grad school for the serious AP if you like.

The other thing that got me going was the shortsighted plan of attack that many APs use when a great opportunity arises from a promotion. Like the flawed plan of attack they use for their regular play that centers around short term EV rather than long term EV. They calculate what gives them the biggest advantage. They go after a month long promotion in a manner that assures it ends in days. They may be looking at a month of 12% advantage for a percentage of hands and decide the smart thing to do is play it so hard it lasts a day or two. How is that smart. Everyone could play up to their normal maximum bet and try not to kill the goose that is laying the golden egg. They would reap in huge profits that are all but assured as variance is negated with enough playing time. Instead they only get enough play in that variance makes actually profiting questionable. These people believe they are maximizing EV but maximizing long term EV takes a totally different approach. You must see the big picture not what you see under the microscope. Because of these people APs guard these promos and rightfully so. A smart player ready to milk the promo over its scheduled run will clean up playing well past his NO. The short sighted AP will play with a much higher EV but has to settle for how variance leaves him before he reaches his NO. A pretty dumb approach to the best opportunity that may present itself all year.

Think your plan of attack through while considering the big picture. Your bankroll will thank you. You will enjoy many happy returns in every sense of the words.
 

Coyote

Well-Known Member
#2
Sorry to hear of your condition. I have a friend who went through the same thing. He came through fine. Here's to a speedy recovery!:toast:

Great Thread! Many of us would be wise to heed your advice. I will! I am reading Arnold Snyder's Blackbelt In Blackjack and he says some of the same things on page 127.

Thanks for the wisdom and best to you,
Coyote
 

FrankieT

Well-Known Member
#4
tthree said:
SCORE as the most important thing to maximize not EV.
Multiple hands reduce variance.
Always insure blackjack at all but minimum bet.
Realize insuring good hands at small insurance disadvantage reduces variance while increasing long term EV.
Try to find a store that has LS, a very important rule, and learn the indices.
Play a system that is strong overall (BC, PE and IC).
Learn to use risk averse indices.
Add a side count or two to your game.
You should wong out when the shoe has a poor chance of recovery.
Penetration is the most important factor when choosing a game.
After a big shoe leave win or lose.
You can decrease your spread and win more by following the above advice.
Shorter sessions now have higher EV and lower variance.
Very sound advice. Vote to sticky.
 

Lonesome Gambler

Well-Known Member
#8
There's a lot of good advice in the OP, but it's a one-size-fits-all approach. Not everyone has the same goals. I hate to seem contrarian as I think you've got a strong grasp on what makes a solid, conservative player, but I personally think that a lot of what you suggest will cost people in the long run.

First of all, I strongly agree that a serious AP needs to look at things in terms of the big picture. And that means the possibility that you may not be counting cards for the rest of eternity. Many strong card counters eventually add other weapons to their arsenal and become more complete—and thus, more profitable—players.

Ostensibly, your approach is borne of the "you can shear a sheep once..." philosophy, which I honestly think had a lot more merit twenty years ago. There are a lot more sheep these days.

While you do mention decreasing variance and using risk-averse plays, these are not as important to a well-bankrolled professional player as they are to someone just starting out. A new player with a small bankroll that they can't afford to lose may do well to heed some of that advice.

But there's a catch: the aspiring player, in their quest to shield their bankroll from frightening swings and troublesome casino heat, will often have to spend a very long time grinding out small profits with a small edge before they can move onto bigger and better things. Short sessions help, but it doesn't take long before people know your face. If you log 200 hours in one casino in a year, they know who you are. When you move up in stakes or start playing different games, people will take note. If you find yourself burned at a particular casino after a year or so, was it worth the $10-20/hr?

On the other end of the spectrum, you have the highly-aggressive player. This player has the best shot at success because he's not afraid to take chances when the risk/reward ratio is positive enough. Understanding and respecting a casino's pain threshold is important to this player too, but he can stand a backoff or 86'ing here or there. Naturally, this is an undesirable outcome, but do you know how many casino there are these days? And more are on the way. Although burning games is a serious concern, underplaying games is also a mistake.

I'm not saying that maximizing EV is everything, but minimizing risk and variance and being overly heat-averse will hurt an aspiring player in myriad ways. Increased exposure, high opportunity cost, career burnout, not being able to afford fancy Scotch... you get my point.

So excellent post, but I think that people should understand that the motives of aggressive players are not always inherently selfish or foolish.

And by the way, here's to a swift recovery!
 

Lonesome Gambler

Well-Known Member
#9
tthree said:
The other thing that got me going was the shortsighted plan of attack that many APs use when a great opportunity arises from a promotion. Like the flawed plan of attack they use for their regular play that centers around short term EV rather than long term EV. They calculate what gives them the biggest advantage. They go after a month long promotion in a manner that assures it ends in days.
While I think your heart is in the right place, you have to realize that if a promo is that good, you're not the only one that noticed it. And not everyone will be willing to make a gentleman's agreement to potentially sustain a promo (many promos will be killed even if played conservatively as civilians will have an edge too. Many other promos have a set end time anyway). I know that "if you don't do it, someone else will" is not a good justification for most actions, but in this case, it's the reality. I say get the money.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#10
The truth is you both have many useful things to say, and every bit of advice has a place at one time or another. I like what you said, LG, that there is no one size fits all. Circumstances vary, goals vary, bankrolls vary, skill sets vary. What tthree was doing was speaking in generalities, and he is generally correct, What LG was saying spoke to more specific differences and it too was correct. I like it when APs put down in writing what their strategies, tactics and considerations are like the two of you have done. Rather than confusing anyone, I think both of your remarks were thoughtful and will be helpful to anyone who reads them in context and in the spirit in which they were given. I personally can not hear enough advice. My game wants to go this way and that way, often following the line of least resistance, and I need someone rehashing the fundamentals of good play. When you hear the truth, you know it. The discussions on the Forum keep me from going off the deep end, correct the erroneous thinking I sometimes fall prey to, and reaffirm the good things that I am doing. Kudos to both of you! :toast:
 

Machinist

Well-Known Member
#11
LG is absolutely right. If you don't kill a promo some one else will. Milking promos almost never works. If it is an obvious promo forget it, hammer it hard.
I have tried it both ways over my career, my attiude is 100% to kill it . Maybe start slow, but know that it has to be killed.:mad:
I haven't been posting much of late,,,,,, why? I'm busy killing things.....:)

Machinist
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#13
Hey, tthree. I went to Vegas with a sore foot. In Vegas I walked and walked and walked, and the foot, notably my heel, became sorer, and sorer and sorer. When I returned from three weeks there, I still refused to see a doctor. I finally realized that I had done just the opposite from what I should have done-- you can't walk your way out of it. Finally, I visited a foot doctor. X-rays and ultra sound confirmed that I had a heel spur and badly inflamed foot muscle. I got a cortisone shot, am taking anti-inflammatory medicine, and am wearing a sort of shoe splint for a week now. It's slowly getting better. You don't realize how much a pain-free calf or foot is until you experience the opposite. Also, since this happened, I have noticed myriads of other people with foot and leg problems in wheel chairs, with canes, with limps, and with orthopedic shoes and casts. I never noticed them before my own problems.
 
#14
Walk it off...

Pussy.

(Disclaimer: this is sarcasm, from a guy without the intelligence to reasonably discuss our game, but who is trying to attain the ten-post threshold so he might PM.)

Pussy.

(That's funny, right? And, if not, I apologize.)

...Pussy.

C'mon, that's at minimum smirk-worthy, is it not?
 
#16
Does it at all matter if I think I'm funny? If I have no intent to harm a pillar of this community?

'Cause, if not, I feel I should be banned immediately...

I drink, is waht I'm tryin' to convey here...
 
#17
aslan said:
Hey, tthree. I went to Vegas with a sore foot. In Vegas I walked and walked and walked, and the foot, notably my heel, became sorer, and sorer and sorer. When I returned from three weeks there, I still refused to see a doctor. I finally realized that I had done just the opposite from what I should have done-- you can't walk your way out of it. Finally, I visited a foot doctor. X-rays and ultra sound confirmed that I had a heel spur and badly inflamed foot muscle. I got a cortisone shot, am taking anti-inflammatory medicine, and am wearing a sort of shoe splint for a week now. It's slowly getting better. You don't realize how much a pain-free calf or foot is until you experience the opposite. Also, since this happened, I have noticed myriads of other people with foot and leg problems in wheel chairs, with canes, with limps, and with orthopedic shoes and casts. I never noticed them before my own problems.
Call my doctor, he'll give you a recommendation for medical marijuana. zg
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#18
zengrifter said:
Call my doctor, he'll give you a recommendation for medical marijuana. zg
Ha! That's all I need. :grin:

I think I have an eating disorder, too. What advice do you have for that? You would think it would be easy to lose weight, but I try everyday, and at the end of each day I find myself in front of the boob tube or the PC stuffing my face. I cannot believe I am so friggin' weak-willed. Any serious advice would be greatly appreciated. Also, any jokes would be taking in good stead as well. It's funny, but it ain't friggin' funny, if you know what I mean. :laugh:
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#19
zengrifter said:
Call my doctor, he'll give you a recommendation for medical marijuana. zg
Are you allowed to smoke medical marijuana in public? Would be some awesome cover :laugh:

Even better for an AP would be a doctor who'll get you a wheel chair for any slight reason.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#20
Gamblor said:
Are you allowed to smoke medical marijuana in public? Would be some awesome cover :laugh:

Even better for an AP would be a doctor who'll get you a wheel chair for any slight reason.
*Aslan daydreaming* I am picturing a shapely RN wheeling me up to the bj table at first base, with the pit welcoming me, "Hello, Mr. Anderson. Good to see you again this evening. Do you want your usual $50,000 marker?" "Yes, Peter. The usual for starters. And thank you kindly for the special Presidential Suite, the exquisite lobster dinner and the complimentary bottle of Dom Perignon last night." My, those professionally done phony IDs work wonders! *Aslan wakes up*
 
Top