Is EV impacted by when you leave?

#1
If I stick to a rule like, "I will leave the casino when I am up by 20 units, regardless of the count", will this impact my EV?

If I only leave the casino after the end of good shoe (count-wise), will this impact EV?

Is there any "leaving strategy" that impacts EV? The only thing I can think of is leaving mid-shoe. If I leave (each shoe) when TC<-1, my EV is higher than when I play all.
 

iCountNTrack

Well-Known Member
#2
Mr. Ed said:
If I stick to a rule like, "I will leave the casino when I am up by 20 units, regardless of the count", will this impact my EV?

If I only leave the casino after the end of good shoe (count-wise), will this impact EV?

Is there any "leaving strategy" that impacts EV? The only thing I can think of is leaving mid-shoe. If I leave (each shoe) when TC<-1, my EV is higher than when I play all.
Stop losses or wins have no effect on your EV, because the EV per hand is the same before playing, while playing and after you stop playing. However what will happen is that the accumulated expectations will win over the accumulated standard deviations as the numer of trials increase
 

Daggers

Well-Known Member
#3
i asked something similar earlier and what i realized was that even if you leave if you are 20 units up and you are expected to only have 5 or something, later it will average out to 5. Because you could have been 20 units down instead but variance was kind to you and later, variance says that you will be 15 units down to average out to the five units.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#4
Since your long run expectation is linked to the amount of play you get at plus counts, I would think that leaving before the end of a plus count just lengthens your journey to the long run. Plus counts are why we count, so why leave them prematurely? Or am I missing something?
 

Baberuth

Well-Known Member
#5
There is no rule for leaving a plus shoe.

We count to get a plus and then we have an advantage. Play the plus and then leave. Aslan is so correct.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#6
If you still have a strong game going, if you are not tapped out; and if you're not so tired as to be playing less than optimally; there is only ONE reason why you would EVER leave - to avoid being identified as an AP. Unfortunately; in the REAL world, this reason trumps all others; no matter WHAT the count is at the time.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#7
Sucker said:
If you still have a strong game going, if you are not tapped out; and if you're not so tired as to be playing less than optimally; there is only ONE reason why you would EVER leave - to avoid being identified as an AP. Unfortunately; in the REAL world, this reason trumps all others; no matter WHAT the count is at the time.
This is true. So far in my short career, I have never been forced to leave before the end of a positive count, but I am sure others have. It is, as you say, the one reason I would leave, unless I couldn't hold it any longer. :eek:
 

jaygruden

Well-Known Member
#8
aslan said:
This is true. So far in my short career, I have never been forced to leave before the end of a positive count, but I am sure others have. It is, as you say, the one reason I would leave, unless I couldn't hold it any longer. :eek:
The only time I've left a shoe during a plus count was when variance busted the BR that I had in my pocket during the plus-stretch. It's the worst feeling in the world to be sitting there in the middle of a huge count and have no scratch to get down. I'll never let that happen again. Regarding heat....I look at it like this....If I am getting heat then what's another 5 minutes to ride out the plus count. If that short time is going to get me nabbed then I was already nabbed before that point. I may as well play out the rest of the +EV and walk with a bigger pile than do the walk of shame with no bus money on me.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#9
jaygruden said:
If I am getting heat then what's another 5 minutes to ride out the plus count. If that short time is going to get me nabbed then I was already nabbed before that point.
This is a valid argument, but oftentimes SUSPICION is a precursor to HEAT. If you can recognize this (not always possible, of course) you can and SHOULD leave immediately; usually unscathed.
 
#10
Leaving an advantage situation will hurt your EV. You play through a lot of weaker situations to get to one of these big advantages. You should not leave once your opportunity has arrived. Your only stop win should be if you have won so much the casino will bring serious heat. In that situation play crazy for a while. You either give some back and get the cover you need to be welcomed back or you win more and get the cover you need to be welcomed back. After a big opportunity you should take a break for a while win or lose. Try to look like you have somewhere to go before it is over. Keep looking at your watch or ask where the nearest bathroom is and start to squirm a little. You could ask where a certain place that you are supposed to meet your significant other in.
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#11
Daggers said:
i asked something similar earlier and what i realized was that even if you leave if you are 20 units up and you are expected to only have 5 or something, later it will average out to 5. Because you could have been 20 units down instead but variance was kind to you and later, variance says that you will be 15 units down to average out to the five units.
Technically not completely accurate. Variance won't somehow "know" in the future to bring your average back down to norm, this is Gambler's Fallacy. Its more accurate to say, in the long run, you average will be 5, and the sheer numbers of the long run will make your +20 insignificant.

You play a billion more hands averaging 5, your +20 won't make a significant difference to the average. So your EV for all this time is really 5.00000000000000000000000000000000000001 :)
 

zoomie

Well-Known Member
#12
tthree said:
Leaving an advantage situation will hurt your EV. You play through a lot of weaker situations to get to one of these big advantages. You should not leave once your opportunity has arrived. Your only stop win should be if you have won so much the casino will bring serious heat. In that situation play crazy for a while. You either give some back and get the cover you need to be welcomed back or you win more and get the cover you need to be welcomed back. After a big opportunity you should take a break for a while win or lose. Try to look like you have somewhere to go before it is over. Keep looking at your watch or ask where the nearest bathroom is and start to squirm a little. You could ask where a certain place that you are supposed to meet your significant other in.
Agree, but on more than one occasion, with a big win, I have left near the end of a very plus shoe because I just felt it was time to go. And, if I was being watched and counted down, leaving "early" might just get me some longevity.
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#13
Sometimes my wife suggests leaving after a good win. My standard answer is, "do the casinos close when they reach a certain limit?"

Last time though, she was right. Was up 400 units and gave back half of that in 15 minutes at a high variance info game :mad:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#14
Sucker said:
This is a valid argument, but oftentimes SUSPICION is a precursor to HEAT. If you can recognize this (not always possible, of course) you can and SHOULD leave immediately; usually unscathed.
But if you're already in the midst of betting max bet, you are doing nothing any more suspicious by continuing to flat bet at the increased rate. If leaving after the shoe is the tip-off, then what are they going to do, ask you not to play? You have already quit and on your way to three card poker, the crap table or the cashier, depending on the circumstances.
 
#15
zoomie said:
Agree, but on more than one occasion, with a big win, I have left near the end of a very plus shoe because I just felt it was time to go. And, if I was being watched and counted down, leaving "early" might just get me some longevity.
Agreed. Leaving a big plus count with a hand or 2 left in the shoe does help sell that you are not counting. I am not sure it will change their mind but hopefully you only play great games. The loss of that EV could come back as much more winning sessions in the future that you would otherwise be barred from. If you got the skill of avoiding the 86ing use it.
 
#16
it hurts greatly

Leaving a positive shoe is costly. Only about 25% of hands are positive. The effect is decreased penetration. The more negative hands you play the more damaging. N0 will increase. As far as longevity you are hoping to get in the future what you are giving up now. A high price to pay.

If one feels compelled to do this often due to heat possibly lowering spread could be superior because it allows consistency of play, important long run (N0) consideration
 
Top