Am i experiencing +EV or is this normal?

#1
I recently started counting cards on a DD DOA DAS H17 LS game. My betting spreads are 1-8. I use the HiLo count with a side ace count. I have played ~150 hrs and my hourly is current at ~5units/hr.

Is this just really good positive variance or is it standard?

Also, how many hours would you expect to play to find a good estimate of your true hourly?

Btw this is my first post.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#2
bobstaman said:
I recently started counting cards on a DD DOA DAS H17 LS game. My betting spreads are 1-8. I use the HiLo count with a side ace count. I have played ~150 hrs and my hourly is current at ~5units/hr.

Is this just really good positive variance or is it standard?

Also, how many hours would you expect to play to find a good estimate of your true hourly?

Btw this is my first post.
from looking at a canned sim of a similar game and counting methods it looks as if you are exceeding expected value by on average in the neighborhood of circa 2.5 units/hr (maybe depending on how many hands per hour you are averaging one, maybe two standard deviations to the good) . errhh that would be for playing without the ace side count.
but that's only an estimate because you haven't stated how many hands/hour you think you are playing.
but anyway if you sim your game you wouldn't have to worry about how many hours to play to find a good estimate of your true hourly win rate.
 

johnnyb

Well-Known Member
#3
bobstaman said:
I recently started counting cards on a DD DOA DAS H17 LS game. My betting spreads are 1-8. I use the HiLo count with a side ace count. I have played ~150 hrs and my hourly is current at ~5units/hr.

Is this just really good positive variance or is it standard?

Also, how many hours would you expect to play to find a good estimate of your true hourly?

Btw this is my first post.
Good variance. You'll hit some swings here and there eventually. Don't get too big headed, it makes losing sessions psychologically worse. Stick to the math.

For the other question, run a sim with your rules and penetration to figure out the hourly.

I wish you the best variance!
:grin:
 

AussiePlayer

Well-Known Member
#6
bobstaman said:
Are there any free sims out there? If not, where and how much could I buy one for?
There's a free one here (Dead link: http://www.bjstats.com//bjbr.asp) although it doesn't have HiLo with ASC.

If you take AP seriously, CVCX or CVDATA is a must.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#7
bobstaman said:
Are there any free sims out there? If not, where and how much could I buy one for?
For basic sims, PowerSIM is adequate and free, though not terribly user-friendly. But CV is worth the $.
 
#12
bobstaman said:
I recently started counting cards on a DD DOA DAS H17 LS game. My betting spreads are 1-8. I use the HiLo count with a side ace count. I have played ~150 hrs and my hourly is current at ~5units/hr.

Is this just really good positive variance or is it standard?

Also, how many hours would you expect to play to find a good estimate of your true hourly?

Btw this is my first post.
Bob, that is a great game even at 50% pen, using HI-LO-LO :cool: as it appears you are, to some extent, the game is very beatable, do not be greedy as you need not be barred from this game. Use your head, study the indices and enjoy.:cool::)

My Best,
CP
 
#14
Friendo

Friendo said:
Should he not also be applying some SKILLZ?
"Skillz" come in time, through experience and study and immersion in all aspects of the game.

I think this gent has a far way to go in developing Skillz, although it is my sincere desire that he reaches that plateau.:)

CP
 
#15
sounds good

Late surrender on double deck game. where is it?

Your game is going very well, keep it up. If you play at empty tables with good penetration it cuts down on negative swings which may come in the future.

The EV+ is expected, you are playing well at a good game. You're doing better than average so don't be shocked if you hit a few loses.
 
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