Set up to fail?

#1
Hey guys, been lurking around for awhile but this is my first post. Started playing some blackjack on the weekends. (edited location details) I found a DD Hit on soft 17 game, looks to be about 70-75% penetration thats worth playing. I know BS inside and out, using the Hi-Lo count and currently working on learning I18 indices

Anyways, its $5-$500 table and Im betting a 1-8 bet spread ($5-$40)
Without buying an analyzer of some sort, am I betting enough to overcome the losses on the negative counts if Im playing all hands? This casino seems to be pretty laid back and I havent had any problems sitting out when the TC hit negative.

Im worried about my betting strategy, I put out a red chip per positive true count. So with a TC of 2, I have $10 out and with a TC of 8 I have the full $40 out.

Ive also considered counting aces as it should be really easy on a double deck, but dont know what exactly I would do with it at the table. Ive searched around slightly but all i found was that in order for it to be worth it, I would need to change my count to a ace neutral one.

Thoughts / Ideas / Flames welcome
:toast:
 
#2
S2krazy03 said:
Hey guys, been lurking around for awhile but this is my first post. Started playing some blackjack on the weekends. Im in oklahoma but I found a casino that pays its own antes, and it happens to be the casino that has a DD Hit on soft 17 game, looks to be about 70-75% penetration. I know BS inside and out, using the Hi-Lo count and currently working on learning I18 indices

Anyways, its $5-$500 table and Im betting a 1-8 bet spread ($5-$40)
Without buying an analyzer of some sort, am I betting enough to overcome the losses on the negative counts if Im playing all hands? This casino seems to be pretty laid back and I havent had any problems sitting out when the TC hit negative.

Im worried about my betting strategy, I put out a red chip per positive true count. So with a TC of 2, I have $10 out and with a TC of 8 I have the full $40 out.

Ive also considered counting aces as it should be really easy on a double deck, but dont know what exactly I would do with it at the table. Ive searched around slightly but all i found was that in order for it to be worth it, I would need to change my count to a ace neutral one.

Thoughts / Ideas / Flames welcome
:toast:
DD games are typically less tolerant of large spreads. Some may even say your spread is to large. Side counting seven's would bring you more of a gain than aces. A balanced side count of aces and twos used with HIOPT I when added together gives you HILO for betting and HIOPT I can be used for most playing decisions as it correlates better. You can factor in the A/2 side count were aces are beneficial or harmful or use HILO for those hands.
 
#3
fine

Your count is fine
Your spread not perfect, is fine
Play some shoes for longevity reasons:
Off the top
Wong in from positive RC to under TC 2
Wong out from -1 to -3 TC after a bad hand.
Mix it up.

Your spread is large but the top bets are not large and they are infrequent.

The belief that red chippers are safe is not quite the case, so use some betting camo.
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#4

A 4-1 spread is as far as you can safely go in a DD game -- at least for those with good rules and pen.

They will let you get away an with 8-1 spread (in red) because your max' bet

is so small that your "expectation" is approximately minimum wage.
 
#5
So the way Im playing currently (if played correctly) wont yield a negative EV in the long run?

My goal for my play is to be able to have fun and not lose money. I dont want to consider it a job, but more of a weekend hobby that might yield a bit of cash on my end. Ive got a good bit of background in statistics so I understand that even if played correctly, I could come out at a loss, and know the short term gains are gonna roller coaster all over the place.

With that said, it was nice to go into the casino the other night and make enough money to pay for a speeding ticket I got the day before :laugh:
 
#6
S2krazy03 said:
So the way Im playing currently (if played correctly) wont yield a negative EV in the long run?

My goal for my play is to be able to have fun and not lose money. I dont want to consider it a job, but more of a weekend hobby that might yield a bit of cash on my end. Ive got a good bit of background in statistics so I understand that even if played correctly, I could come out at a loss, and know the short term gains are gonna roller coaster all over the place.

With that said, it was nice to go into the casino the other night and make enough money to pay for a speeding ticket I got the day before :laugh:
What we are saying is you will do well on a per unit win rate but a smaller spread with bigger units at a good game would be more profitable. If all you want is not to lose money you are good to go if they tolerate your play.
 
#7
Sk

On the DD game I suggest a 1-6 with $10 min, and a side of aces with Hi-Lo, with the right strategy you can dominate the game. Playing two spots off the top is also highly recommended.

You can PM me later, next week, about some strategy move with the Hi-Lo-Lo count.

One problem with DD is heat and you never want a barring if you can slip it, in any way, a lower expectation is better than no expectation at all, if you get barred. In DD, the new SD, this is something you either "deal with", or, get "dealt out".:):eek:

CP
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#8
S2krazy03 said:
Hey guys, been lurking around for awhile but this is my first post. Started playing some blackjack on the weekends. Im in oklahoma but I found a casino that pays its own antes, and it happens to be the casino that has a DD Hit on soft 17 game, looks to be about 70-75% penetration. I know BS inside and out, using the Hi-Lo count and currently working on learning I18 indices

Anyways, its $5-$500 table and Im betting a 1-8 bet spread ($5-$40)
Without buying an analyzer of some sort, am I betting enough to overcome the losses on the negative counts if Im playing all hands? This casino seems to be pretty laid back and I havent had any problems sitting out when the TC hit negative.

Im worried about my betting strategy, I put out a red chip per positive true count. So with a TC of 2, I have $10 out and with a TC of 8 I have the full $40 out.



Ive also considered counting aces as it should be really easy on a double deck, but dont know what exactly I would do with it at the table. Ive searched around slightly but all i found was that in order for it to be worth it, I would need to change my count to a ace neutral one.

Thoughts / Ideas / Flames welcome
:toast:
,
Wouldnt worry about side counting aces, w/hi-lo since your just starting out. Your spread seems fine(but your strategy does not) at low limits. Unless your really short funded you need to be getting your maxbets out at around +4 with hi-lo. Of course around +8 is safer(wins less) but yields less. I believe.
 

AC232323

Well-Known Member
#9
I would have to disagree with flash on 1-8 being the highest safe spread you can have in double deck. I think you can do a much, much bigger spread if you have a decent act. The amount that you can spread in Oklahoma is going to be a lot different than the amount you could get away with in Vegas. My recommendation would be to spread as much as you possibly can (based on how much heat you are getting and your bankroll). In some backwoods Oklahoma casino at a $5 table I would think think you could get away with around 1-15 spread.
As far as simulating your EV, take a look at http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/SimSimp_Beta.htm for an open source simulator.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#10
It depends upon MUCH more than just your act (& I'm quite sure Mr. Flash knows this).

You can have the best act in the world, and a sharp PB or a sharp surveillance operator will be able to rather quickly pick you off with even a 1-8 spread.

Paradoxically, a STUPID pit crew in a backwoods place will bust you for counting even FASTER - even if you're flat betting!

Example: About 10 years ago, my BP beat Casino Niagara out of about 15K (flat betting 2 x $500). After I sent him away, I remained in the 3b seat long enough to listen to the conversation among the floorman, pit boss, & shift manager. After about 15 minutes they all came to the conclusion that my guy was counting. You have no idea how hard it was to NOT shout out to them: "YOU STUPID IDIOTS! THE GUY WAS COUNTING? FLAT BETTING? ON A CSM MACHINE? :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#11

IF AC232323 is referring to casinos in Oklahoma he is referring
to a hopeless game where an "ante" is charged per hand played.

Let's keep it real, shall we ?
 
#12
although ^^^ is right, I doubt anyone would care about someone counting in an ante game, as you just cant beat it, I think AC232323 is probably in the right ballpark about casinos not being as worried about counters like vegas is over here. This place atleast seems to be really laid back and ive already spotted a guy who comes in daily and is for sure counting and doesn't seem to have any problems.
 
#15
living on the edge

Try to notice how much heat the other player gets for their max $150 bets, can help as a guide for you.

However, if your bank is under 10g keeping bets under $100 is prudent.
 

Solo player

Well-Known Member
#17
Spread tolerance

You just have to figure what amount you can get away with in any givin place.( Heat will be included) Some or maybe most places will only tolerate spreads in quarters of 1-4. Others 1-8. After you start getting some hours in at the tables you can sense when the pit starts to become uneasy with your spread. But if TEITS is watching you'll never notice it until you get the tap.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#18
Solo player said:
But if TEITS is watching you'll never notice it until you get the tap.
The bosses are sweating your game; one of them goes to the phone; suddenly NO ONE is watching the game; you can bet your sweet a** the game has been "put up" into the eye! Put it in neutral for about 15 minutes, then leave. This will usually buy you additional trips to that house.
 
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