Key carding

southAP

Well-Known Member
#1
Im trying to learn as much as I can about sequncing for single and 2 deck games, a problem I ran into wasny so much the mathematics or execution of the technique but the dealers. I say the dealers because to play an accurate game you need a dealer that will put only one card between the target and key card per riffle. The problem I see is that many dealers are new or dont have a precise riffle so its either lacking cards beween they key and target or have too many? Is there any way to take this problem into account while playing?
 

forwhat77

Well-Known Member
#2
Keycarding is a good talent to enhance, but of course you can only execute it on the right shuffle when it prevents itself. If the "new" dealers are card clumping then this is not a bad thing either if you learn how to use this information as well.
 
#3
southAP said:
Im trying to learn as much as I can about sequncing for single and 2 deck games, a problem I ran into wasny so much the mathematics or execution of the technique but the dealers. I say the dealers because to play an accurate game you need a dealer that will put only one card between the target and key card per riffle.
Not so.
Statistically the Ace-keycard proximity is remarkably cohesive under a variety of shuffles. zg
 

southAP

Well-Known Member
#4
zengrifter said:
Not so.
Statistically the Ace-keycard proximity is remarkably cohesive under a variety of shuffles. zg
Well in contrast to predicting the ace by the key card you would expect it to be 3 cards awau in three riffles but if its four riffles away it could end on the dealers hands.

In regards to cards clumping, i've seen that and did a crude utilization of cutting them into play. I say crude because I jumped my bets when hitting a clump if aces but had no way to tell exactly where they would land. Only that they were there.
 
#5
southAP said:
Well in contrast to predicting the ace by the key card you would expect it to be 3 cards awau in three riffles but if its four riffles away it could end on the dealers hands.
Riffles aren't perfect. Often, even with several riffles, the cards stay together. zg
 
#7
southAP said:
Ok, so how would I go about steering that ace to my own hand instead of the dealer?
Thats not what we are discussing - steering.

The main aspect of - keycard sequencing - is to know when the Ace is in the proximal neighborhood and bet bigger.

Steering is different. zg
 

southAP

Well-Known Member
#8
zengrifter said:
Thats not what we are discussing - steering.

The main aspect of - keycard sequencing - is to know when the Ace is in the proximal neighborhood and bet bigger.

Steering is different. zg
Maybe I should have wrote that different. When key carding you know that the target card will fall soon after they key. Isnt the point of key carding to know exactly when it will fall and bet accordingly? if so then it would in,essence be steering. Or am I thinking to deeply into this?
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#9
southAP said:
Ok, so how would I go about steering that ace to my own hand instead of the dealer?
Steering is when you know the EXACT location of a card, and you play the appropriate number of hands in order to steer it to yourself or to the dealer. This is rarely (if EVER) the case in ace tracking.

What you're talking about is not STEERING, but minimizing the chance that the dealer will get the ace (reverse hit). Your best protection for this is to play as many spots as possible, and/or play at full tables. The further away from the dealer you're predicting the card to be, the less chance it has of going to the dealer.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#10
southAP said:
Well in contrast to predicting the ace by the key card you would expect it to be 3 cards awau in three riffles but if its four riffles away it could end on the dealers hands.

In regards to cards clumping, i've seen that and did a crude utilization of cutting them into play. I say crude because I jumped my bets when hitting a clump if aces but had no way to tell exactly where they would land. Only that they were there.
It could end up in the dealer's hand in any case imaginable, whether it is 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 cards away. The point is, you don't know at what point in the deal that it will come out, or even if it will come out in the first go-round or the second. The mere fact that you know it is very likely to come in the next deal is enough to warrant a larger bet, especially so if you are able to spread to two or more hands.
 

southAP

Well-Known Member
#11
aslan said:
It could end up in the dealer's hand in any case imaginable, whether it is 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 cards away. The point is, you don't know at what point in the deal that it will come out, or even if it will come out in the first go-round or the second. The mere fact that you know it is very likely to come in the next deal is enough to warrant a larger bet, especially so if you are able to spread to two or more hands.
So its more on an estimate than an exact science? What would be the best strategy to get the most profit out of key carding?
 
#12
If I understand correctly, it's important to get an idea of how consistent a dealer's shuffle is. If their riffles are clean and consistent, 1-2 cards will usually be riffled between each key card. This uncertainty is mitigated by playing multiple hands to increase the chance that the card you want will fall into one of them. Usually, the edge is big enough to offset the negative expectation on the spots that the card misses.

However, in a single-deck game, key carding may not be the strategy you're looking for. If you know where an ace is (say, the bottom of the pack before the shuffle), you won't need key cards to know when it will come up on the next round, assuming that the shuffle is easily trackable.
 
#15
Lonesome Gambler said:
However, in a single-deck game, key carding may not be the strategy you're looking for. If you know where an ace is (say, the bottom of the pack before the shuffle), you won't need key cards to know when it will come up on the next round, assuming that the shuffle is easily trackable.
I had trouble following this one. Could you re-state it? zg
 
#16
Right, I edited other sentences from that post that made it clearer. OP stated that he was looking at SD and DD games. If he knows where an ace is in those games, he may simply be able to cut to it or to a packet containing it that will fall into one of the first few spots at the table, which will presumably be played by him. I think what I'm trying to say is still not clear here, but that's OK because I'm not an expert and no one should take my advice on the subject of Ace location.
 

southAP

Well-Known Member
#17
Ok I think I understand how this works but im still unclear on how I can utilize this, bet, or which kind of shuffles will be weak enough to exploit which I know are things that shouldnt be public.
 
#18
Got it.

Spaw - keycarding is also not "Ace location", which is used in conjunction with steering. And when it
comes to steering, there is more profit in 10-steering (to the dealer) because there are more 10s/opps. zg
 
#19
southAP said:
Ok I think I understand how this works but im still unclear on how I can utilize this, bet, or which kind of shuffles will be weak enough to exploit which I know are things that shouldnt be public.
Most shuffles will work. I've found that even ASMs work.
When the keycard comes out raise to your max counting bet x2 hands. zg

Ps - Here is a controversial book, worth reading nontheless -- Blackjack Ace Prediction
 

southAP

Well-Known Member
#20
zengrifter said:
Most shuffles will work. I've found that even ASMs work.
When the keycard comes out raise to your max counting bet x2 hands. zg

Ps - Here is a controversial book, worth reading nontheless -- Blackjack Ace Prediction
I was thinking of reading that book but it had mixed reviews, but since you are advising it, i'll give it a go.
 
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