Help please. What should my bet be?

#1
Ok, 2D hand dealt, DAS, H17, 60% pen (yuck), 3:2, No Surrender, $10.00 minimum table, Hi-Lo, $3000.00 BR. Where should my minimum bet be? What should I spread to for optimal RoR?

I've been playing these at a $10.00 minimum spreading to 4x that when cards are good, but I think I may be cutting myself short... Should I be coming in with more or spreading farther?
 

ohbehave

Well-Known Member
#2
It doesn't look good I'm afraid. On 10-40 spread I get a win rate of only $7.70 per 100 hands with a whopper ROR of 34%. Increasing the BR to $10k brings the ROR to 6%. It would be a hail mary BR at $3000 unfortunately. Doesn't seem fair does it?

edit: this is for Stand 17 (didn't have a sim for H17)
 
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#3
If I Increased the bankroll?

ohbehave said:
It doesn't look good I'm afraid. On 10-40 spread I get a win rate of only $7.70 per 100 hands with a whopper ROR of 34%. Increasing the BR to $10k brings the ROR to 6%. It would be a hail mary BR at $3000 unfortunately. Doesn't seem fair does it?

edit: this is for Stand 17 (didn't have a sim for H17)
Oh, I guess I've been doing pretty well keeping my bankroll then. The $7.70 return is pretty much spot on with my actual. Ok, say bankroll increases to $10k with a 6% ROR, great. What's a "safe" ROR? I'm thinking anything under 12%? Where would I be with minimum and bet spread with the $10k and a 12% ROR on the same game?

Thanks for the assistance!
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#4
ohbehave said:
It doesn't look good I'm afraid. On 10-40 spread I get a win rate of only $7.70 per 100 hands with a whopper ROR of 34%.
I'm not sure how you can come up with a win rate and RoR, since the poster gave no info about his betting ramp? All he said was he bets the minimun and then bets 4X minumum when count "is good". Is he betting $40 at +1? or +3? or +5? Are there $20 and $30 bets as well, or is he just jumping from $10 to $40? what about play all or wonging out of neg counts? There's just not enough info to have come up with these results. Also 34% RoR seems high off the top off my head.
 

ohbehave

Well-Known Member
#5
kewljason said:
I'm not sure how you can come up with a win rate and RoR, since the poster gave no info about his betting ramp? All he said was he bets the minimun and then bets 4X minumum when count "is good". Is he betting $40 at +1? or +3? or +5? Are there $20 and $30 bets as well, or is he just jumping from $10 to $40? what about play all or wonging out of neg counts? There's just not enough info to have come up with these results. Also 34% RoR seems high off the top off my head.
Well yes your right I made some assumptions but with only a 4x spread at DD its not difficult to determine a ramp. As you know you really can't wong in and out of DD and since you will get frequent advantage counts you have to get your max bet out often frequently jumping from min to max.

Anyway my response was basically using the best ramp I could come up with to maximize win rate and minimize ROR, essentially an optimal ramp for playing at the table. I was surprised at the high ROR also. Anyone else is welcome to post a sim but thats what I got on 1 billion rounds.
 

ohbehave

Well-Known Member
#6
winr_winr_chicken_dinner! said:
Oh, I guess I've been doing pretty well keeping my bankroll then. The $7.70 return is pretty much spot on with my actual. Ok, say bankroll increases to $10k with a 6% ROR, great. What's a "safe" ROR? I'm thinking anything under 12%? Where would I be with minimum and bet spread with the $10k and a 12% ROR on the same game?

Thanks for the assistance!
With a $10k BR you can get about $11/100 rounds with less than 10% ROR with no ramp... bet $10 at 0 and under and $50 at 1 or more.

If you want to ramp it go 10 at 0 and under, 25 at 1-2, 50 at 3 or more for $8/100 and less than 6% ROR. Or if you can get away with it go 10/50/100 at the same counts for $22 and 10%... maybe a hit and run strategy.
 
#7
ohbehave said:
With a $10k BR you can get about $11/100 rounds with less than 10% ROR with no ramp... bet $10 at 0 and under and $50 at 1 or more.

If you want to ramp it go 10 at 0 and under, 25 at 1-2, 50 at 3 or more for $8/100 and less than 6% ROR. Or if you can get away with it go 10/50/100 at the same counts for $22 and 10%... maybe a hit and run strategy.
Thanks for the help, I was bet ramping 10, 20, 30. I like the hit and run - Maybe for my last 15 minutes of play before I jump on the bus, huh?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#8
winr_winr_chicken_dinner! said:
What's a "safe" ROR? I'm thinking anything under 12%?
It all depends on how safe you want to be. A 12% RoR gives you about a 1-in-8 chance of going broke. That's too risky for me but it might be fine for you if the money doesn't mean much to you. It all depends on the value you put on your bankroll and the value of taking the chance at winning. Those values will be different for everybody.

-Sonny-
 
#9
Sonny said:
It all depends on how safe you want to be. A 12% RoR gives you about a 1-in-8 chance of going broke. That's too risky for me but it might be fine for you if the money doesn't mean much to you. It all depends on the value you put on your bankroll and the value of taking the chance at winning. Those values will be different for everybody.

-Sonny-
What's safe for you Sonny?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#10
winr_winr_chicken_dinner! said:
What's safe for you Sonny?
Personally I try to stay around 1% or under, but that's just me. Many people are comfortable taking more risk in order to increase potential profits. Many books use a benchmark 5% RoR.

-Sonny-
 
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Kasi

Well-Known Member
#11
Sonny said:
Many books use a benchmark 5% RoR.-Sonny-
I've always had a little trouble with this - would a 5% ROR more or less mean a 2 Standard deviation event would basically wipe you out, more or less - I guess obviously answering "when" would have a bearing?

Or maybe only for a trip roll but maybe not for lifetime because you could recover when below 5%?

Or maybe is it if one is 2SD behind at NO one would be wiped out?

I'm not sure what I'm asking lol but I know 1% makes alot more sense to me just becasue you can survive those highish SD events lol.

None of my business but what risk do you consider acceptable for a trip? Maybe 10%ish?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#12
Kasi said:
I've always had a little trouble with this - would a 5% ROR more or less mean a 2 Standard deviation event would basically wipe you out, more or less - I guess obviously answering "when" would have a bearing?
Not exactly. A 2 SD event might involve losing 60 units in an hour, but anyone with a decent bankroll can handle much more than that without breaking a sweat. Even a 5 SD event wouldn’t bring most players close to bankruptcy. SD is for measuring short-term volatility while RoR is for measuring long-term volatility in relation to the size of your bankroll.

A 5% RoR means that you have a 5% change of going broke at some point. It is more likely that you will go broke at the beginning, but you could easily win some money before going into a tailspin and losing everything. Another way to look at it is that 1-out-of-20 people who use that strategy will go broke.

Kasi said:
None of my business but what risk do you consider acceptable for a trip? Maybe 10%ish?
I'm actually more conservative with my trip RoR than my lifetime RoR. If I lose my BR during a trip then I have no chance of making a comeback. All I can do is sit in my room watching TV for the rest of the trip because I've lost my advantage. There’s nothing more depressing than standing behind a table watching your favorite dealer paying out pushes and flashing cards but not being able to play. He probably won’t be there for long ether. I always travel with enough money to have a trip RoR close to 0%, or at the very least have access to more money if things go badly. As long as you have access to enough money you can have a 0% trip RoR without having to carry around too much cash.

-Sonny-
 
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