Questions regarding bet spread/camo!

#1
Hi everyone! I've been perusing these forums for a few months now but finally decided to register. I have been counting for about 3 months now. Currently I am using the Hi lo count along with the I18. I made my first trip about 3 weeks ago as an advantage player and my second last week. Over the course of those two trips I am up 50 units ($10 unit) and averaging about $50/hr. My bankroll is $5000 right now so I know betting a 1-8 spread with $10 unit is risky but my bankroll is replenishable. There is only one, maybe two $5 dollar tables in the city where I play and tons of $10 tables. This is why I am playing the $10 min and not the $5.

Now, I am very uncertain as to what spread to use so I don't draw too much heat. This was the spread I used for my first two trips:

TC <= 0 1 unit
+1 2 units
+2 3 units
+3 3 units
+4 4 units
+5 6 units
+6 6 units
+7 8 units
+8 8 units

Now since those two trips I've purchased CVCX to run simulations. According to CVCX for S17, DAS, 6 Deck, 75% penetration the ideal spread to use is:

0 1 unit
+1 3 units
+2 6 units
+3 or greater 8 units

The difference in hourly rate is very significant according to the simulations I have run. My inital spread will profit about $5/hr while the cvcx recommended spread is $15/hr. Big difference, and I do realize my ROR is significantly higher. Now I have quite a few questions on what to use. Here are my concerns:

1. Will going from betting 2 red min to 3 green when the count warrants be too much of a jump? ( I mean I know I can throw out 16 red but I would think 3 green looks less suspicious than a big stack of chips in the circle)

2. If I bet the 80 on +3 or greater will throwing the red chip on the 3 greens make me look more suspicious like I'm trying to hide my greens? Should I just bet three green and round my bet to $75 instead?

3. Is playing lower limits a safer zone for me to get away with quickly jumping up a 1-8 spread?

4. I tried elmiminating too many changes in the spread for the cvcx optimal. I just rounded the 8 unit and 6 unit bets to 7.5 so I can just get three green out on the table and not have too much changing in bet amounts. According to the CVCX data there is only an expected loss of $1/hr to do this. Would this help not drawing too much heat by only having 3 total bet amounts in my spread? ($10, $25, $75)

I don't use any kind of betting/play camo etc. I'm not sure if I should add some camo or not. I know alot of people recommend parlaying and ramping more based on winning or losing the previous hand ( parlaying bets when the count warrants after a win/ decreasing bets only after losses) To me this seems too costly. Any suggestions are helpful. I've just been very confused as to whether I'm being too blatant. I read where some experts recommend play camo, betting camo then I read about experts who say it costs too much money for these camo plays to even make your playing time worth while. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated! =)
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#2
endofOne said:
My inital spread will profit about $5/hr while the cvcx recommended spread is $15/hr. Big difference, and I do realize my ROR is significantly higher.
Actually, your ROR is probably smaller with the more optimal bet spread because your advantage is much higher. The short-term swings will be higher but your long-term risk will be lower since you are earning more money for a similar amount of risk.

endofOne said:
1. Will going from betting 2 red min to 3 green when the count warrants be too much of a jump?
Probably not. You won’t be making big jumps very often. In a shoe game the count will move very slowly so you will be gradually adjusting your bets. Most people won’t even notice.

endofOne said:
2. If I bet the 80 on +3 or greater will throwing the red chip on the 3 greens make me look more suspicious like I'm trying to hide my greens?
I wouldn’t worry about it. If you do it right you might look more like a gambler by betting odd amounts like that.

endofOne said:
3. Is playing lower limits a safer zone for me to get away with quickly jumping up a 1-8 spread?
Usually it is. If your max bet is small enough the casino might not pay any attention to you at all. The lower limit tables usually get less attention and they are more crowded so it is easier to blend in. But each casino is different so you will have to get a feel for what kind of bets they will tolerate.

endofOne said:
I don't use any kind of betting/play camo etc. I'm not sure if I should add some camo or not.
Don’t worry about camo. At your level you can’t afford it and you probably don’t need it. There are plenty of ways to use free camo, like keeping your sessions short and playing at times when the pit is distracted. You barely have an advantage to begin with so don’t be too willing to give anything up.

-Sonny-
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#3
endofOne said:
0 1 unit
+1 3 units
+2 6 units
+3 or greater 8 units
This is where the definition of "unit" gets squishy. If you squint your eyes and round, then what you write above is pretty much the same as:

0 0 units
+1 1 unit
+2 2 units
+3 3 units

Except that each unit is roughly twice as big (roughly $20 instead of $10).

Looks like CVCX has you betting around $60 in a high count, and your bankroll is $5000. That sounds about right for "full Kelly" betting, which, while not reckless, means there is still a very significant chance of losing a very large portion of your bankroll, and being force to resize downward (or replenish).

Also, if you're playing shoes, and if you're talking about a max bet of $60, then that means you need to avoid a good portion of neutral negative counts if the min bet is $10. You'll want to use both wonging in and wonging out. Maybe not all the time, but lots.
 
#4
Thanks!

Thank you for the replies! I know that where I play wonging in/out is very common. I've seen quite a few people just sitting out every time the count is negative without leaving the table then placing a bet as soon as the count goes positive. Don't the casinos care? I mean isn't that like wearing a sign saying "I Count"? Apparently they must not care because they were there for long periods of time without any heat.

On my trip last week I happened to sit down at a table where I believe a spotter was sitting. He was an older gentleman that had a college professor look to him sitting out every hand with a negative count. Once the tc started to quickly rise a younger player about half his age walked up and asked if he could sit down next to him and the guy mumbled something about wanting to play 2 spots and to take a seat over at 3rd base, directly across from his first base position. On the first hand the younger guy is betting almost exactly the same as me. When the count lowered he lowered his bet and vice versa. He knew the count when he sat down mid shoe. I even thought he was mirroring my bets and decreased my bet on one hand when the shoe was + but he was still progressively following the count.

I was getting nervous that our betting progressions were almost directly proportional give or take a few reds. The younger guy did not wong in because he was not watching the table at all. I concluded the only way this person could have sat down knowing the count and betting accordingly is if he was getting signals from the professor across the table. I just thought it was interesting to have my first run in with that type of situation. Funny thing was they timed it perfectly because we had 3 consecutive shoes go to a tc of +4 or more on each shoe. He played our table for about 45 mins then as soon as the next shoe shifted negative he cashed out with a considerable profit.
 
#5
End

I am impressed with the job you have done so far to come out ahead against the casino. You are moving in the right directions. :)

My major suggestion to you is to find a LS game. Prepare for the big swings, especially if you play a no LS game. Use heavy indice plays and find tables with few players.

Remember with those bet ramps you will often be expected to double and split so those $80 bets can get rather large in the blink of an eye. Play the cards and the math, not the money, that is most important...be sure you can do that.

If you are interested in attending the "09 BJ BASH" send me a PM. ;)

CP
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#6
Sonny said:
endofOne said:
If I bet the 80 on +3 or greater will throwing the red chip on the 3 greens make me look more suspicious like I'm trying to hide my greens?
If you do it right you might look more like a gambler by betting odd amounts like that.
To expand on what Sonny said, what will make you look most like a methodical counter is to have neat stacks of 10, a separate stack of greens, and when you want to pull back a $40 bet you pull back 1 green and 3 reds, put them carefully on your respective piles, and then carefully select out three greens and one red into the circle. Nothing screams "I AM CAREFULLY MEASURING OUT WHAT I BET AND AM VERY CONSCIOUSLY BETTING A SPECIFIED AMOUNT" like someone sitting there and counting a big stack of reds to make sure it's $80 and not $75.

Keep your chips in a quasi-ordered clump in front of you. When you increase your bet, push chips in, but don't take any out. If you're increasing from $60 to $80, just throw a green chip on top of whatever you have there - varying your $80 bet to $75 or $85 occasionally is fine. When betting $30, switch between betting a green and a red and 6 reds, whichever is easiest at the time (if you're increasing from $20 to $30 add two reds, if you lost your previous bet, put out $25+$5).

I'll often bet some really weird amounts - I'll put out a $50 bet first, and then pick up $5 in silver, and put them on top, and then take one off the top and make it a tip. But I'll grant that's only possible because I can calculate a 3:2 payoff for a $54 bet without losing the count. Even my counting friends were pretty impressed with that.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#7
endofOne said:
Now since those two trips I've purchased CVCX to run simulations. According to CVCX for S17, DAS, 6 Deck, 75% penetration the ideal spread to use is:

0 1 unit
+1 3 units
+2 6 units
+3 or greater 8 units

The difference in hourly rate is very significant according to the simulations I have run. My inital spread will profit about $5/hr while the cvcx recommended spread is $15/hr. Big difference, and I do realize my ROR is significantly higher. ..
Way cool you blew some money on a sim. Even with "only" a $5K roll and a $10 min bet lol. Congratulations.

How about that - it's already maybe paying for itself - tripling your win rate just by optimally betting lol.

I was just curious what your ROR was with your initial spread - in the 30% range or so? Maybe a litle higher with the cvcx spread?

Anyway, you could always use the sim to try out your proposed spreads. Like maybe change the 3 units +2 2.5 units and then make all the rest 7.5 units. Even maybe add in a 5 unit bet at +2 before you start the 7.5's.

Maybe even have it do a 1-15 spread which might even smooth out some bets at the +3,4,5 counts. Probably not increase risk much but definitely increase EV a bunch.

It doesn't seem too likely you would have made too many 8 unit bets in your original spread since they occur so high?

I don't know anything about heat but I wouldn't worry much about playing all hands at a $10 table. I'd be worrying alot more about my risk lol.

But it sounds like you already have added 50 units to your original roll!

Good luck.

Playing fewer hands in negative counts etc is definitely something to consider.
It likely could change your $10 unit and create a much lower risk.

Whatever you choose to do, run a sim for each style of play. Even different pen levels in case it changes to 5/6 etc.

Then, in my unreal world, try to match actual results later to the sim you were trying to play to lol.

In fact, here's a homework assignment maybe for you lol. If you actually feel you played your original spread pretty consistently in your last 2 trips and won 5 units an hour for I assume about 10 hours of play in total, while only expecting about a half-unit/hr, how unlikely, "lucky", would you say your results were?

Now if you really didn't stick to the spread that much, maybe bet crazy here or there, maybe spread to multiple hands here and there, etc then it's harder to do lol. Try to think in terms of hands played going forward, rather than hours, would be another suggestion because that $5/hr really means $5 for every 100 rounds played kind of thing.

Sorry - I rant on and on lol.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#8
EasyRhino said:
This is where the definition of "unit" gets squishy. If you squint your eyes and round, then what you write above is pretty much the same as:

0 0 units
+1 1 unit
+2 2 units
+3 3 units

Except that each unit is roughly twice as big (roughly $20 instead of $10).

Looks like CVCX has you betting around $60 in a high count, and your bankroll is $5000. That sounds about right for "full Kelly" betting, which, while not reckless, means there is still a very significant chance of losing a very large portion of your bankroll, and being force to resize downward (or replenish).

Also, if you're playing shoes, and if you're talking about a max bet of $60, then that means you need to avoid a good portion of neutral negative counts if the min bet is $10. You'll want to use both wonging in and wonging out. Maybe not all the time, but lots.
Well I don't get what you are saying lol.

First of all everything he said seemed consistent with a $10 unit and a max bet of $80 if playing all-hands.

Your proposed spread seems to imply never playing a count at 0. Basically backcounting and entering at +1 with a $20 unit.

Although, if one were actually back-counting, I'd guess entering at +1 would be far from an optimal spread. Especially combined with 2 units at +2 etc. With an optimal spread and a $20 unit, I'd guess $5K would have a very small risk.

Anyway, why not, if one chooses to use both wonging in and wonging out at different times while -playing, why not try to run a sim for each scenario and at least get something close to maybe an optimal spread for when one chooses to do it etc?

If you ever find the definition of a unit getting "squishy", it's likely time to run another sim with a different min unit. Or just find the "squishy unit" field in the sim and use that lol.

And so what, if my loose definition of "reckless", obviously not yours though which is fine of course, actually happens to be "a very significant chance of losing a very large portion of your bankroll, and being force to resize downward (or replenish)."

But, whatever "reckless" may mean to any individual, I certainly agree with you the latter statement certainly describes a full-kelly risk.

I must be old school or something. Like if all these $5K rolls are so replenishable, why not just replenish it now a few times and then play with a very low risk? Or play the $5K roll in a way that actually has a low risk?
 
Top