Need an advise about progression

#1
I'm new to blackjack - have been playing for a month and a half. I was playing different types of progressions and winning till I went to High Limit Room and went up from 500$ to 13000$. Unfortunately, I was so excited that I made a couple of stupid bets and then tried to win it all back...you can guess the rest. Now I'm back to 10$ table play and trying to figure out the progression play that will suit me. First of all, I admit I was lucky not lose even once during this month and a half (I went to casino 20 times) and of course I do understand that card counting is a superior technique in every aspect to progression play. However, for now I want to stick to progression and play for a while with small bankroll because it was working so good for me before. my main problem is that I was very inconsistent with my style of play. I was playing 10 20. If it didn't go my way I started to play 10 20 60 or 10 20 60 200 depending on my situation. Sometimes I just switched to playing 2 hands. I want to try to play one progression and as an amateur I want to ask you guys if this progression makes any sense and what are my chances. I play 10 20 60. If I win 100, I play it till I lost these 3 hands. If I go up 10, I add these chips to 60 stack; if I'm up 30 - progression is 10 30 80 and so on till I reach 100 - then whatever happens happens but I'm not gonna loose at least. Couple of times I won good money with this progression. Couple of times I didn't and switched to something else. It just seems a little bit more safe but maybe it only seems. So what do u think?
P.S. Sorry for so many words
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
#2
I think you'll soon find that this isn't the site to frequent, if you want people to reinforce your bogus ideas by "helping" you with your progression system.

Thanking you for paying to keep the lights on for people like us,

Spaw

Edit: I think you understand that you are still playing a negative-expectation game here when using progressions. What I don't understand is why you'd play it then. The progression system does not change the advantage that the casino has over you. Advantage play turns the tables, so that the game favors us.

Even if blackjack was a 0% HE game, there is nothing intrinsically fun about the game; the casino, with all of its slimy clientele, is the last place I would want to be on a Saturday night, even if I was playing a 0% HE game.
 
#3
Some people do play progressions. I'm not saying this is the way to win or that this particular progression will make someone rich. But for now I'm still gambling with the money I won and if it won't work out for me I'll just quit or play for fun once in a while. What I need is an advise from someone who has played progressions for a long time ( I hope there are people who do ok or at least break even most of the time). The question is how good are my chances to win 100$ playing 10 20 60. How many times I will win or loose 100 on average.
 
#4
Southpaw said:
Edit: I think you understand that you are still playing a negative-expectation game here when using progressions. What I don't understand is why you'd play it then.
Cause it works for now. And I do not risk too much by doing it. Probably I was just lucky and will run out of luck soon but while I'm playing I want to know how can I play better. I doubt I will became a professional blackjack player though
 
#5
You Are Not a Special Snowflake

For every $100 you bet you will lose approx 50 cents.

bet 5 x $20 lose 50 cents
bet 10 x $10 lose 50 cents
bet 2 x $20 and 6 x $10 lose 50 cents
bet 2 x $5, 5 x $10 and 2 x $20 lose 50 cents

every time you bet $100 in any way you lose 50 cents.

Do you think you are the first to every use a progression?

A progression fools one because they win occasional big bets which can work in the short term. This could also work. If one wins one bet of $1,000 then they can afford to lose many $5 bets. however, if you do this enough do you agree that you will go broke?
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
#6
Some people do play progressions. These are degenerates. I already told you that this is not the site you'd like to frequent if you want someone to "help" you with a progressions. There are no such nonsensical persons here; we haven't any resident progressionists; these types pop up for a few weeks, only to disappear.

And for the record, yes you are risking a lot by playing a progression. Although the expected-value is the same in both cases, you would be a lot better off playing the smallest flat-unit (preferably a zero-dollar unit).

You can't play better by playing any progression; there are no such things as good or bad Progressionists, while there are good basic strategy players and poor basic strategy players; how you decide to place your bets does not matter when you are playing without a clue of the remaining deck's composition. Progressionists are not professionals and they never will be.

Spaw
 
#7
blackjack avenger said:
For every $100 you bet you will lose approx 50 cents.

bet 5 x $20 lose 50 cents
bet 10 x $10 lose 50 cents
bet 2 x $20 and 6 x $10 lose 50 cents
bet 2 x $5, 5 x $10 and 2 x $20 lose 50 cents

every time you bet $100 in any way you lose 50 cents.

Do you think you are the first to every use a progression?

A progression fools one because they win occasional big bets which can work in the short term. This could also work. If one wins one bet of $1,000 then they can afford to lose many $5 bets. however, if you do this enough do you agree that you will go broke?
Statistically speaking you are right of course and again I'm not arguing that there is a working progression system. I'm just curious about odds of losing 3 hands in a row. Let's say I won that 1000 bet and now having fun with 5 bets.
 
#8
Southpaw said:
Some people do play progressions. These are degenerates.
Spaw
Degenerates are the ones who generalize to much, Southpaw

Southpaw said:
I already told you that this is not the site you'd like to frequent if you want someone to "help" you with a progressions.
Then why is Voodoo Betting Strategies section on this site?
Southpaw said:
You can't play better by playing any progression; there are no such things as good or bad Progressionists, while there are good basic strategy players and poor basic strategy players; how you decide to place your bets does not matter when you are playing without a clue of the remaining deck's composition. Progressionists are not professionals and they never will be.
Yeah, I agree. To play progression is statistically incorrect strategy and professionals count cards (no irony here). But that doesn't answer my question and frankly I don't think you want to do that. Pointless debate, don't you think?
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
#9
justme said:
Then why is Voodoo Betting Strategies section on this site?
To semi-quote shadroch as to why the voodoo section exists:

"The voodoo section doesn't exist because Ken and the moderators wanted to create a place where progressionists could thrill us with their nonsensical bullshit, but rather to weed out the trash and deposit it somewhere."

But to answer your question, if you play perfect basic strategy, you will win about 42-43% of hands. You will tie about 7-8% of hands and you will lose about 50% of hands.

Spaw
 
#10
Southpaw said:
To semi-quote shadroch as to why the voodoo section exists:

"The voodoo section doesn't exist because Ken and the moderators wanted to create a place where progressionists could thrill us with their nonsensical bullshit, but rather to weed out the trash and deposit it somewhere."

But to answer your question, if you play perfect basic strategy, you will win about 42-43% of hands. You will tie about 7-8% of hands and you will lose about 50% of hands.

Spaw
OK. Thank you.
 
#12
Dyepaintball12 said:
Low cards +1, High Cards -1.

Bigger number, bet more.
I pay attention to that but once I was crushing the table (without counting) and they called pit boss 3 times. She was explaining like no he's very consistent he plays progression, he plays basic strategy really well blah blah blah. Bigger numbers usually do not affect my initial bet but can affect a number of steps in progression. That's the way for me to employ both techniques at once and not to get caught though I do not keep specific count just watch if too many small cards are out. I have a feeling that if I just do card counting I'll get caught pretty quick. When you play progression, on the other hand, it is very hard to tell if you count something or not. Overall, I just need to go up $100 to win my session. From there I can end up winning $10-30 or over a thousand (done both) but I'm not gonna loose on that day :) That's way I was wondering what are my chances to be $100 up if I play 10 20 60. Looks like I will win 4 out of 10 which is not that bad considering I usually win over a hundred from there and can maximize my winnings by adjusting progression and doing money management.
 

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#13
justme said:
I pay attention to that but once I was crushing the table (without counting) and they called pit boss 3 times. She was explaining like no he's very consistent he plays progression, he plays basic strategy really well blah blah blah. Bigger numbers usually do not affect my initial bet but can affect a number of steps in progression. That's the way for me to employ both techniques at once and not to get caught though I do not keep specific count just watch if too many small cards are out. I have a feeling that if I just do card counting I'll get caught pretty quick. When you play progression, on the other hand, it is very hard to tell if you count something or not. Overall, I just need to go up $100 to win my session. From there I can end up winning $10-30 or over a thousand (done both) but I'm not gonna loose on that day :) That's way I was wondering what are my chances to be $100 up if I play 10 20 60. Looks like I will win 4 out of 10 which is not that bad considering I usually win over a hundred from there and can maximize my winnings by adjusting progression and doing money management.
This just makes no sense to me at all! What the heck are you blabbering about!? You can win 10 or 30 or over a grand!!!??? :eek:
 
#14
gamblingghost said:
This just makes no sense to me at all! What the heck are you blabbering about!? You can win 10 or 30 or over a grand!!!??? :eek:
Ok. Let's say you won $100. From there you gamble with this $100. No loosing on that day except some time at the casino. If you win 10-20 and when lose 3 hands in a row you walk away. Not a lot but you gotta be consistent. On the other hand you can sit there for an hour without losing 3 hands in a row. If you up 300-400$ you can add another 100 to you progression and so on. I have done that and this is not unusual and you do not have to be extremely lucky for that. IMHO, money management is almost just as important as a basic strategy and can help you maximize your winnigs and walk away at the right moment but hey what do I know I only play for a month and a half...
 

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#15
Well, you obviously don't know a lot but you have come to the right place
to learn. One of the first things you will have to get clear in your mind is
that no matter how lucky you think you are, you will still lose at progressions
if you play long enough. Why? you ask. Because you are consistently playing
with a neg. expectation. My advice. Learn to count. It is not really that difficult. You can do it!! Get Verite' and start practicing as soon as you can!
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#16
Instead of blowing all your money on progressions just send it to me. Get a couple more posts so you can PM me and I'll send you my address. You'd rather give your money to someone who can really use it than a big greedy casino, wouldn't you? :laugh:
 

ohbehave

Well-Known Member
#17
justme said:
Ok. Let's say you won $100. From there you gamble with this $100. No loosing on that day except some time at the casino. If you win 10-20 and when lose 3 hands in a row you walk away. Not a lot but you gotta be consistent. On the other hand you can sit there for an hour without losing 3 hands in a row. If you up 300-400$ you can add another 100 to you progression and so on. I have done that and this is not unusual and you do not have to be extremely lucky for that. IMHO, money management is almost just as important as a basic strategy and can help you maximize your winnigs and walk away at the right moment but hey what do I know I only play for a month and a half...
All of this is speculation. You have to win the $100 first before you can gamble with it.There is no math behind a progression that can prove it a longterm winner. I believe you know this but you are choosing to ignore it. Hey, I've been there. I started playing BJ with a progression and was convinced it worked. Luckily some good folks here steered my right and I quit the progression before I lost a ton of money. If a progression was a winning strategy you would not have to walk away after either winning or losing $100. Just keep playing forever. The casino will probably not stop a progressionist. The fact that you have to stop and start again another day should give you some concern. The only reason AP's limit there playing time is due to exposure otherwise if we were allowed we would play night and day and only stop to make trips to the bank.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#18
justme said:
Ok. Let's say you won $100. From there you gamble with this $100. No loosing on that day except some time at the casino. If you win 10-20 and when lose 3 hands in a row you walk away. Not a lot but you gotta be consistent. On the other hand you can sit there for an hour without losing 3 hands in a row. If you up 300-400$ you can add another 100 to you progression and so on. I have done that and this is not unusual and you do not have to be extremely lucky for that. IMHO, money management is almost just as important as a basic strategy and can help you maximize your winnigs and walk away at the right moment but hey what do I know I only play for a month and a half...
True. If you already have money you won from the casino and only gamble with this money and quit before you lose it all you'll come out a few bucks ahead...but what's the point? People play this game for fun, to make money or both. I don't see anything fun about playing 5 minute sessions having to quit before losing your meager winnings, and you certainly aren't going to make any real money this way. If your goal is to just walk away from the casino up $5-20 so you can brag to your friends how you "stuck it to the casino" then this method could work for you. You just have to worry about getting off to a good start. Good luck with that! :whip:
 
#19
gamblingghost said:
. Learn to count. It is not really that difficult. You can do it!! Get Verite' and start practicing as soon as you can!
My problem with card counting is that I don't want to get caught and I'm not very mobile at the moment so I want to stick to playing in the same casino . What I would like to do is to learn some basic technique that will give me small advantage to know when is the right time to go one step further in progression.
 

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#20
justme said:
My problem with card counting is that I don't want to get caught and I'm not very mobile at the moment so I want to stick to playing in the same casino . What I would like to do is to learn some basic technique that will give me small advantage to know when is the right time to go one step further in progression.
See, the problem here is that you use the words 'advantage' and 'progression' in the same sentence. That is a problem see!? Because they don't go together. You don't have a mathmatical advantage with progressions. The only way to get the math on your side is to count. Simple concept, do you accept it?????
 
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