Money Management

#1
I'm new to this forum and fairly new to playing BJ. I'm just learning the game and I don't attempt to count yet. I do use the basic strategy as far as when to hit, etc

I've done some research on this forum and the rest of the internet and didn't find any info that seems to be legit on my question. I'm assuming the "betting stategies" I've read about are mostly bunk, martingale, fiabinacci (spelling) etc or double your bet after you win 2 hands or double your bet after you lose 2 hands ... or whatever. I assume that each deal is a random event. I do think I have hot streaks and cold streaks.

Finally my question. Is there a basic betting or money management strategy for the non counter. I love to play and also love to get comps. For now, I think I'd be happy if I could break even or come close.

A dealer I played with a lot last week told me a local guy in LV comes in every day. He brings 2000 and tries to play till he is up 350 and then quits as soon as that happens, if its 10 minutes or 4 hours. She said he does not count and his theorey is that, with 2000, betting 20 a hand, most of the time he will be up 350 at some point before he goes broke. He will change tables if he is getting killed, will increase bet if on a hot streak and decrease if his luck seems bad. But nothing sceintific or set rules. She said that works fairly well for him money wise.

Sorry for the long post (my first) I don't spell very well and don't know much about BJ. Thanks for taking the time to read my post and thanks in advance if you have some comments.
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#2
The best money management for a non-counter BS player is bet as little as possible because you're playing a negative expectation game. You are correct that all the "systems" like progression betting don't work.

If you're trying to have some fun and play for comps, put out a big bet when the pit is watching you, usually when you first buy in. Also, try to sit at full tables so you play fewer hands per hour. Along those lines, sit at tables with side bets like Match the Dealer, which slows play even more. You might want to read Rubin's "Comp City."
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#3
1) Always use your players club card.
2) play at full tables
3) take frequent bathroom breaks
4) be very nice to every dealer and pitbosss you come in contact with. As a non-counter, you have nothing to lose and everything to gain by being nice to them. The pit has a great deal of desrepency in doling out comps.
5) Check the various casinos to see who is offering what on the day you will be playing.
 
#4
Thanks

Thanks for the comment 21

So the story about the local guy with 2000 is probably BS? I wonder if there is a way to figure the odds on that. If you use basic stategy, what are the odds you will be up at some point before you go bust? Realizing its a losing proposition in the long haul.

I like to stay in nice places. So betting low doesn't work getting comps. Last week for 4 nites, I played about 20 hours with an average bet of about 60. I got a very nice 99 a nite suite, about 500 worth of comps and left about 2000 at the tables. But I love to play, talk to people and check out the sights.

Afterwards I did reflect on my play and realized that I almost always forget to get up, when I'm up. I was up considerably several times. I guess thats how they built the casinos, banking on human nature. I will change that behavior next time.
 
#5
Money

Thanks Shad

Being friendly with the dealer and pit boss made a hugh difference for me a couple times during my last trip. I got credit for a much higher average bet that I should on several occasions.
 

muppet

Well-Known Member
#6
rick9194 said:
A dealer I played with a lot last week told me a local guy in LV comes in every day. He brings 2000 and tries to play till he is up 350 and then quits as soon as that happens, if its 10 minutes or 4 hours. She said he does not count and his theorey is that, with 2000, betting 20 a hand, most of the time he will be up 350 at some point before he goes broke.
57.26% chance he will lose 2k before being up 350, assuming perfect basic strategty and he bets 20 per hand playing a 6d shoe with LV rules.

mind you..this is my first time using a RoR calc so i could be way off :(
 

Renzey

Well-Known Member
#7
Quitting Winners doesn't work

Rick,
Every ploppy thinks if you quit when you're ahead, that has to give you an edge. It doesn't!

Suppose you and I flipped a coin for money every afternoon. I'd agree to play on and on, as long as you wished. You could quit at any time you like. But for that privilege, you'd have to lay me $1.01 to a dollar on every flip. Now I'd have a half percent edge on you, much like with basic strategy blackjack.

Your strategy would be to quit anytime you got ahead, even if it was after the very first flip. You can see just by diagraming a simple binary tree that you will be a winner on roughly 83% of your sessions. But will you have an edge on me? No! Why not?

How are you ever going to win more than 50% of your flips overall? Unless you do, that $1.01 per loss is going to beat you. The fact that you quit at selective intervals doesn't alter the 50/50 game that you're playing, but only interrupts the 50/50 process. Whenever you decide to begin play again, that's just the next flip. The coin doesn't care how long it's been since the last one!

All quitting at a "stop-win" point does is create a record that contains a whole slew of small winners and a few staggering losers. But the grand total is still eventually going to be 50-50 heads and tails. You cannot "time your luck".

Just understand that each time you quit a winner, you were just artificially selecting favorable intervals at which to step back and admire your progress -- nothing more. It's all one long game even if you try to not let it be.

Think of it this way. When driving down a long, long road, you can almost always choose to stop and rest on a hill if that's your wish. But if that road leads to the valley, a few long stretches of downhill pavement will more than make up for the many little hills along the way -- because you are after all, driving on a road that takes you to the valley.

Hope this helps.
 
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Finn Dog

Well-Known Member
#8
rick9194 said:
Is there a basic betting or money management strategy for the non counter. I love to play and also love to get comps. For now, I think I'd be happy if I could break even or come close.
No such system exists for BJ--counting is the only proven method. (Why do you think that $350 man is welcome in the casino on a daily basis compared to counters, who are not?)

The house has probably has a 1/2 percent edge over you with basic strategy. That may not sound like much, but your $2000 can easily be wiped out in far less than a day when you experience negative variance--and you will.

If you're looking to break even and are after comps, forgot about blackjack completely if you don't count and take up video poker instead--break even to slightly positive EV games can still be found around.

Do a search on this forum under video poker and you'll find threads of where and how to start.

I know you didn't want to hear this but as you know, sometimes the truth hurts.

FD
 
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muppet

Well-Known Member
#9
muppet said:
57.26% chance he will lose 2k before being up 350, assuming perfect basic strategty and he bets 20 per hand playing a 6d shoe with LV rules.

mind you..this is my first time using a RoR calc so i could be way off :(
err yeah so i wasn't entering the right numbers..now i got 16.75% ror, which at least makes sense....: 16.75% of the time he will lose $2000, and 83.25% he will win $350
 
#11
muppet said:
err yeah so i wasn't entering the right numbers..now i got 16.75% ror, which at least makes sense....: 16.75% of the time he will lose $2000, and 83.25% he will win $350
That does sound about right. So in theory if you tried that 10 times you would loose appx 3300 and win 2900, net 400 loss, did I figure that right?
 

Billy C1

Well-Known Member
#12
21forme said:
The best money management for a non-counter BS player is bet as little as possible because you're playing a negative expectation game. You are correct that all the "systems" like progression betting don't work.

If you're trying to have some fun and play for comps, put out a big bet when the pit is watching you, usually when you first buy in. Also, try to sit at full tables so you play fewer hands per hour. Along those lines, sit at tables with side bets like Match the Dealer, which slows play even more. You might want to read Rubin's "Comp City."
Big bets in minus EV games=Paying for your comps!

BillyC1
 
#13
Finn Dog said:
No such system exists for BJ--counting is the only proven method. (Why do you think that $350 man is welcome in the casino on a daily basis compared to counters, who are not?)

The house has probably has a 1/2 percent edge over you with basic strategy. That may not sound like much, but your $2000 can easily be wiped out in far less than a day when you experience negative variance--and you will.

If you're looking to break even and are after comps, forgot about blackjack completely if you don't count and take up video poker instead--break even to slightly positive EV games can still be found around.

Do a search on this forum under video poker and you'll find threads of where and how to start.

I know you didn't want to hear this but as you know, sometimes the truth hurts.

FD
Yeah .... I guess I already knew that. But thanks for the tip, I'll check out the info on video poker.

Another question for the board. If the edge from playing and counting perfectly, is about 1.5% (I think I read that on here ... is that correct)
With SD what it is, if I'm going to LV 4 or 5 times a year and gambling maybe 20 hours a trip .... will I even notice the difference if counting or not?

I don't disagree with anything you guys have said. I guess the truth is if I have a winning session/trip, I'm lucky. Or said another way I had SD in my favor, by chance.

Also to someone who asked .... I play BS 99% of the time. Every once in a while, after I've lost maybe 10 times hitting the 16 against a 7 plus, I might stay on the 16. I did that 2 times in 20 hours last trip. So the answer is no, not every time.

So I struck out on soliciting a miracle from you guys.

I think I could learn to count, maybe. I know its not something everyone can learn and execute. I think thats a legit question .... for the amount I play, will I even notice a difference?

You guys who can count/play effectively .... how much do you play?

Thanks This is a great forum
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#14
rick9194 said:
..... I do think I have hot streaks and cold streaks.
you are correct but this is not the key you are looking for.
you need to understand what to expect in terms of units won/lost or money won/lost with respect to hands played over time. you wont know exact units or exact money won/lost over a given number of hands but you can know ranges of units or ranges of money won/lost for a given number of hands.
this kind of information can be gleaned from simulation software or mathematics for various games. blackjack, video poker, ect. ...
Finally my question. Is there a basic betting or money management strategy for the non counter. I love to play and also love to get comps. For now, I think I'd be happy if I could break even or come close.
for blackjack you would want to play perfect basic strategy and just mainly flat bet if you are not counting cards.
you need to know and understand as exactly as possible how a given casino awards comps and other promotional offerings. this requires a bit of research. you then want to determine the monetary value of that stuff.
then you can do the math for what you expect for a given game in terms of won/lost ranges against the math of such promotional offerings in order to see if you have an advantage over a given period of time with respect to hands played over that period of time. keep in mind different casino's can be rated against one another in terms of promotional offerings and over time these sort of things will likely change.
you want to think in terms of value gained versus value expended.
what is the entertainment value worth to you, does the number of meal comps you gain cut down on normal eating out costs and grocery expenditors for you, can you save on home heating, home cooling, gas or flight costs for trips to the casino that you would normally make if you are able to score free hotel rooms for a number of nights? consider your normal budgetary expenses. perhaps shows, golf expenses can even be considered.
look at the big picture, sort of thing, over extended periods of time.
these things can be worked out mathematically.
A dealer I played with a lot last week told me ..... But nothing sceintific or set rules. She said that works fairly well for him money wise.
....
well, if it does work out for him money wise there probably is something he has figured in a scientific, mathematical sense according to known set rules otherwise he'd just be gambling against unknown odds.
 

pogostick

Well-Known Member
#15
rick9194 said:
I'm new to this forum and fairly new to playing BJ. I'm just learning the game and I don't attempt to count yet. I do use the basic strategy as far as when to hit, etc

I've done some research on this forum and the rest of the internet and didn't find any info that seems to be legit on my question. I'm assuming the "betting stategies" I've read about are mostly bunk, martingale, fiabinacci (spelling) etc or double your bet after you win 2 hands or double your bet after you lose 2 hands ... or whatever. I assume that each deal is a random event. I do think I have hot streaks and cold streaks.

Finally my question. Is there a basic betting or money management strategy for the non counter. I love to play and also love to get comps. For now, I think I'd be happy if I could break even or come close.

A dealer I played with a lot last week told me a local guy in LV comes in every day. He brings 2000 and tries to play till he is up 350 and then quits as soon as that happens, if its 10 minutes or 4 hours. She said he does not count and his theorey is that, with 2000, betting 20 a hand, most of the time he will be up 350 at some point before he goes broke. He will change tables if he is getting killed, will increase bet if on a hot streak and decrease if his luck seems bad. But nothing sceintific or set rules. She said that works fairly well for him money wise.

Sorry for the long post (my first) I don't spell very well and don't know much about BJ. Thanks for taking the time to read my post and thanks in advance if you have some comments.
Rick > you are going in the right direction by learing BS . No there are no betting system that work unless you do learn to count. You are going to hear hundreds of stories like the one you heard and unless he was counting ,they are bull S ! I do if you can call it use a betting system ,but you have to learn to count first. Go to the site forum & click on card counting & start the lessons . After you feel confident you have learned BC , you may want to use this strategy. The ideal table would be $5 single deck. I start with $10 bets . this will help if the tens are heavy on top , then I decrease or increase according to the count. I bet $10 even count , $5 any neg count & $15 any plus count. I win some and lose some ,but counting the comps I have done ok. Pogo PS> I always start with $300 a session & if the pb is watching , I make my first bet $15 . That may rate me as a $15 player for comps. For the rest of you guys that are serious counters & want to feel at ease counting, I recommend cruise ships. That story will be another forum. Pogo
 

pogostick

Well-Known Member
#16
pogostick said:
Rick > you are going in the right direction by learing BS . No there are no betting system that work unless you do learn to count. You are going to hear hundreds of stories like the one you heard and unless he was counting ,they are bull S ! I do if you can call it use a betting system ,but you have to learn to count first. Go to the site forum & click on card counting & start the lessons . After you feel confident you have learned BC , you may want to use this strategy. The ideal table would be $5 single deck. I start with $10 bets . this will help if the tens are heavy on top , then I decrease or increase according to the count. I bet $10 even count , $5 any neg count & $15 any plus count. I win some and lose some ,but counting the comps I have done ok. Pogo PS> I always start with $300 a session & if the pb is watching , I make my first bet $15 . That may rate me as a $15 player for comps. For the rest of you guys that are serious counters & want to feel at ease counting, I recommend cruise ships. That story will be another forum. Pogo
I left a few things out . In a single deck , if I reach the count of + 4 ,I will play the rest of the hands at $15 and - 4 play $5 out no matter how many card are left in the deck. on the first hand , I bet $10 until I lose no matter what the count is .then start betting accordind to the count. Pogo
 
#17
different thought

Hi Rick 9194,

Could not help myself, just had to give you my opinion, which is a bit against the tide as it were;
If you read Blackjack Bluebook 11, By Fred Renzey, and Twenty First Century by Walter Thomason, you will get both the correct Basic Strategy, and a suitable betting strategy to match;
Learn them both correctly, I use them in conjunction with the csm's and find that they work very well,
Although Walter has taken a bit of a beating from the computer fans, his research is most impressive and confronting,
As I cannot count cards either, this is the next best thing, in my opinion;
Elkobar..
 
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