Is it wrong to play long?

Martin Gayle

Well-Known Member
#21
StandardDeviant said:
You're right Lucifer, $25 is high for a person like me. I play the table mins which vary by time of day from $10 to $25. I try to play as much as possible at $10 mins but sometimes it's $15 or $25. And it's never lower than $10.

Betting $100 as a max bet is "too high for a person like me" for a Fortune 500 Top Exec? Anyone can be whoever they want on the internet.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#22
21forme said:
And you drive 8h round trip to a casino? :eek:

You should be flying somewhere!
Right you are...our Vegas trips start next month.

Oh...and I forgot to mention in that whole "I'm an executive" line, that I'm still paying to put kids through college :rolleyes:

The "local" casino can't be reached easily by flying. It would almost take as much time to fly as it does to drive. So what we typically do is drive up one day, and come back the next. I know it's not ideal; it's kind of been our launching pad.

We're going to switch to Vegas trips for the most part, because I agree, the drive is a pain.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#23
Martin Gayle said:
Betting $100 as a max bet is "too high for a person like me" for a Fortune 500 Top Exec? Anyone can be whoever they want on the internet.
You're missing the point. Maybe you didn't read the earlier posts. I am keeping the spread low because I am (was) concerned that if I bet normally I would draw attention, and I'm still learning to count proficiently.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#24
StandardDeviant said:
I understand that my EV is negative.
Full stop. Nothing else matters after this point. If you're playing a losing game (and you are), then there's no reason to worry about heat(*), or anything else. All you need to worry is that you're losing money within your means. The size of your bets doesn't matter. Cover plays don't matter. Your wife's play doesn't matter (except for perhaps increasing losses). You're just gambling like anyone else. Even if the casino gets suspicious, they'll see that, and they'll let you play on. Hence the "not mattering".

(*) I'll confess I know a guy who got booted from the Barbary Coast just for getting lucky, but that's a fluke.

So, let's say, theoretically, that you're playing a winning game (and we're talking, vs. shoes, a 10x-20x spread or backcounting). Well, 4 hours each way is a pretty ridiculous commute. And it's only one venue. Any EV from playing would probably get swamped by gas prices and by opportunity costs on your time. If I were to find myself in such a place, I would try to play it hard, and for fairly long sessions, and would probably inevitably get caught. But at least that would save me another drive.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#25
EasyRhino said:
...If you're playing a losing game (and you are), then there's no reason to worry about heat(*), or anything else. All you need to worry is that you're losing money within your means...
Thanks Rhino. Sounds like I don't have a problem at the moment. I'm wondering about the point where I'm more confident in my counting and I start playing quarters with a 15x spread for hours at a time. Could I play like that and still sit there for hours on end? Or do I need to keep my spreads lower in order to preserve longevity?

I know 4 hours (it's actually closer to 3+ if traffic isn't bad) seems crazy, but the thing about it is that I can go more frequently, say every other weekend. This allows me to practice more frequently in the casino. Vegas is a 5-6 hour flight. Tack an hour to the front and back of that and we have a 16 hour round trip commute door to door. It'd be tough to work that into my work schedule 2x per month. So driving to the local casino lets me get more practice sessions in.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#26
Having a big bet in the $400 range would probably attract attention at most places. Marathon sessions will get you booted. I know from personal experience. And by "marathon" it may mean as little as an hour and a half.

StandardDeviant said:
I know 4 hours (it's actually closer to 3+ if traffic isn't bad) seems crazy, but the thing about it is that I can go more frequently, say every other weekend.
It's still a bum deal. I mean, Vegas is a 5 or 5.5 hour drive for me, and I still don't go that often, mainly because it's a big hassle. But when I finally get there, at least there's a ton of different stores to play at.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#27
EasyRhino said:
Having a big bet in the $400 range would probably attract attention at most places...
That makes sense.

I figure I will need things like camo when I get to that kind of betting. Part of the rationale for using camo now is that I think it would be weird to play perfect BS now at low stakes, and then to appear to be making a bunch of bone headed moves when there's real money on the table.

Maybe I'm giving the casino more credit than they deserve, and maybe they can't really figure it all out. But I don't think I want to find out.
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#28
What is the typical action in this casino, know your casino

There are casinos in Vegas and throughout the country where you could play 24 hours straight, spreading $10-$100 and not get noticed unless you start counting out loud.
There are casinos where you can spread $5-$40 and will hear checks play once you put a green chip on the felt and you better be out the door quickly after that or they will help you leave.

There are times in certain casinos where if you think about it you can spread $25-$250 for a few hours and catch no heat but if you return to that same casino at a different time that spread will instantly catch attention.

There is no real answer to the question of what is too long without knowing the casino, the kind of action it generates, and more subtile things like diferences between different shifts in the same casino.

Some things are easy: Double deck game at Mirage, 45 minutes or a couple of big bets, whichever comes first then out the door.
MGM $5 or $10 game, play and spread to your hearts content.


ihate17
 

lucifer

Well-Known Member
#29
standard, let me sum up counting for you and your situation. If you only have one casino to go to, and you want to spread to a top bet of 400, you will never make it as a counter. ever.period. Counting cards is all about volume.That would be casino volume my friend. If you can make 50.00 or 100.00 per 100 hands, thats great, as long as you have 10 places to play at.10 casinos times 2 shifts is 20 sessions of one hour or less.thats 1000 a week and they only see your face once a week.thats a real good living for doing something you love.I dont care what anyone says, you cant make any real money at this game unless you can play at many casinos.that means atlantic city or vegas. i know pros travel all over the world, but i have no interest playing in some country with no real laws.vegas is the mecca for counters.period.there are so many god damn casinos in this town, if your not greedy, you can do very well.i will give you an example.the 5.00 match play.on its own isnt worth much.But, if every casino in vegas gave you a 5.00 MP when you walked in the door, and you could do it everyday, you would never have to work.same with bj.you are going to have to play in vegas now.fitzgeralds has 2 dollar blackjack now. you dont have to wait until your ready.get your ass to vegas now and play 14 hours a day.by the 4th day you will be 50x better then you are now.you can spread quarters on dd by the 5th day.forget this trash pocahontas casino your driving 4 hours to get to. your out your damn mind. do you realize how dangerous driving 8 hours 3 times a week is.there are so many things that can go wrong, its not even funny.
 
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StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#30
lucifer said:
...let me sum up counting for you and your situation...
Thanks Lucifer. Good advice, and I take your point about driving too much. There are risks there for sure.

The conclusion I'm coming to after this very helpful thread is that, if I keep my spreads low, I can pretty much play to my heart's content at the local casino, but I will never make money. But if I want practice and don't mind the losses and the driving, have at it. Since my intent is practice and not income, that seems workable.

On the other hand, to make $$$, I need advantage play, and that will mean bigger spreads, and that will mean some level of scrutiny from the house, and that will mean that I can't stay in one spot for hours on end, and that will mean that I need to go to Vegas or AC.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#33
ihate17 said:
Some things are easy: Double deck game at Mirage, 45 minutes or a couple of big bets, whichever comes first then out the door.
I think I triggered heat in 5 minutes last time I was there. Damn I'm good.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#34
StandardDeviant said:
No thanks. Gambling is an easier way to make money! :laugh:
I also find gambling to be an easier way to make money than trading.

Many of the concepts are the same: unit size, bankroll, expectation, risk of ruin, etc. BUT, in BJ, the rules stay fixed and everyone knows what they are. Can't say that about the markets...
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#35
Tripled my buy in, it is time to leave

EasyRhino said:
I think I triggered heat in 5 minutes last time I was there. Damn I'm good.

Perhaps big easy Rhinos under volcanos trigger heat quickly, something I do not know about.
It was TI, not Mirage but once on the first shuffle it went positive nicely after two hands with one other player at the table. I played the rest of that stack, won every hand including a couple of max bets, landed up more than tripling my original buy in and used the title here with the pit when he asked me if I was going to give them a chance to get those chips back.
I did play the first hand of the next shuffle with much more than a minimum bet but I lost it and declared it a different shoe.

Not sure, it might have been more than 5 minutes but it was close.

ihate17
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#36
StandardDeviant said:
Yeah, I know my spread needs to widen in order to get a positive expectation. I've played around with CVCX and have a feel for what I need to do to get into a winning game.

I've just been a little unsure about whether my skills are high enough to play full out. Each time I go, I get a bit better. I can keep the count most of the time, but I can get distracted and lose it. I am also not sure yet that I "look" casual while counting. So before I play at higher spreads and units, I need to practice, practice, practice!

I'm not bleeding money, after all, even playing at a 0.5 to 1 percent disadvantage, that's only 12 - 25 bucks per hour (at 100 hands per hour), and I try to find the slow dealers (because it's easier for me to keep the count), so I'm probably not getting in 100 hands per hour. Of course...then there's our old friend, standard deviation, which causes results to vary :)
I absolutely love your name lol. Just the old run-of-the-mill deviant lol. Beautiful, "normalizing" as it does the extremes on the "normalcy" curve lmao.

Like, once one is already way, way, out there in the first place, you are completely normal amongst the way-way-out-there-folks lol.

Don't worry, it's possible I am still 2 SD's out from the standard-deviant folks that are already way way out there lol.

OK- on the one hand you seemed to be worried about skill level. On the other hand you are worried about "heat".

It seems you have CVBJ and CVCX.

First tell CVBJ a basic spread from CVCX. With or without indexes. Forget camo maybe. Play alot of hands with CVBJ using a roll of choice but always in the same game. CVBJ will tell you when you bet the wrong amount or improperly use an index. After a few thousand hands, or more, what the heck it's free, plug those results, including errors, into CVCX and see where you are from an SD point-of-view.

If they are "normal", your skill level is probably fine.

The point is to play the exact same game the exact same way to check skills.

If you want to plug some basic "camo" betting into CVBJ, "never rasie after losing", "never lower after winning" why not if that's how you think you will bet?

Then, when convinced of your skill, pick your game, roll, spread, betting strategy, etc and go out there and do it.

Never play a shoe without knowing what to expect from it kind of thing.

Forget this "real life I lose the count stuff". If it happens in real life, stop playing that shoe and begin again on the next shoe.

Disclaimer - I can count and, actually sometimes do, and find my biggest problem is just remembering what the RC count was at the end of the last round it takes so long to start another round lol.

I don't see the point of wasting money with small spreads to gain some level of skill, a level that probably you won''t be able to measure your skill level anyway from actual results between betting at different mins etc.

How will you ever know what your skill level is?

For however long you have been playing, in whatever way, 1-3 spreads with $10 mins or 1-3 spreads with $25 mins, have you yet come to any conclusion about your skill level?

When will you and how will you convince yourself your skills are "good enough"? How does what you actually have done compare to what you should have expected up until now, even with crappy spreads, even if playing in an -EV situation?

It doesn't matter whether your spread is crappy, whether your min switches from $10 to $25, whether your overall EV from playing a certain way is + or -, what matters is whether you can determine where you are supposed to be at some point in time and how far away you are from that point.

Play as many different ways as you want, just, maybe as a start, at least play one shoe in a consistent way, whatever way it may be, becasue you have run CVCX to tell you what to expect from that one shoe playing that way.

Then again, keep in mind, you are only a "standarddeviant" and I am, apparently, way way worse than that, in that, I think I can honestly say, I don't think I've ever played a hand of BJ without knowing what to expect from it.
More or less anyway lmao. A few notable exceptions exist lol. London, 1971,
betting my return plane ticket back to the USA. That one pretty much cured me for the next 25 years lol. Flash forward to Aruba, 1996, "Sir, are you sure you want to hit that 21?". When one is asked that same question 3 times in 25 minutes, it gets a little embarrassing lmao.

After that, my journey began lol.

Good luck standard deviant.

What a great name.
 
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