Beatable games besides blackjack

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#1
The name mostly says it all. What are some standard casino games which can be beaten in the long run? Poker doesn't really count since you are playing against other players and not the house? If you don't feel comfortable posting this stuff online, PM's are good too.
 

mjbballar23

Well-Known Member
#2
1357111317 said:
The name mostly says it all. What are some standard casino games which can be beaten in the long run? Poker doesn't really count since you are playing against other players and not the house? If you don't feel comfortable posting this stuff online, PM's are good too.
Just about any casino game can be beaten under the right conditions....explaining how to beat each and every game in the casino probably isnt something that should be posted publicly
 

jaredmt

Well-Known Member
#3
i read that you can practice how to roll the dice so you can beat craps in the long run. but it takes a crap load of practice.
 

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#5
jaredmt said:
i read that you can practice how to roll the dice so you can beat craps in the long run. but it takes a crap load of practice.
Emphasis on the second sentence. :grin:

good luck
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#6
mjbballar23 said:
Just about any casino game can be beaten under the right conditions....explaining how to beat each and every game in the casino probably isnt something that should be posted publicly
I don't think there's any big secret.

Beating craps is about sleight of hand - being able to throw the dice consistently over and over again. It's possible, and there are a ton of books about it, but it's not something that is going to be popular because so few people can do it.

Beating roulette (or even big wheel) is about finding a biased wheel - locate the bias and bet that number over and over again. It's possible, but you need several million spins to detect bias, and nobody besides the casino has access to that information.

Video poker (with certain rules) can be beaten with basic strategy. Again, there are a million books about it.

Beating baccarat can be done with card counting (IIRC 4's are bad, 6's are good) ... and a 1:1,000,000 spread. Wait for a true count of +18 to jump to 1,000,000 units. If you find a table that lets you do that, you're golden.

But most importantly ...

1357111317 said:
What are some standard casino games which can be beaten in the long run?
(1) FFS, you just turned 21, went on your first blackjack trip, and now you want to beat the casino at every game in the house?

(2) Even if you could do this, what makes you think that you're the first person to think of this scheme?

At the risk of making an erroneous assumption about you, I'm going to just warn you that there is no easy money to be made, inside the casino or outside of it.

In the casino, you'll need to be more skilled than average, smarter than average, think faster than average, more cunning than average, and most likely, all of the above. You're not going to become a millionaire by finding some long-lost secret which somehow has been overlooked by everyone.

Outside the casino, pretty much everything holds as well. Most people who have the manual dexterity to throw dice well are the same people who will get offers to perform magic shows at $1,000 a night. Most people who have the mathematical skills to devise a new card counting scheme are the same people who will get offers to perform investment schemes for hedge funds at $150,000 per year. There's no easy money to be made there, either.
 

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#7
callipygian said:
Most people who have the manual dexterity to throw dice well are the same people who will get offers to perform magic shows at $1,000 a night.
Or the ability to throw a circle change, slider, and curveball :grin:

good luck
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#8
While the other games besides poker/bj can be beaten I'd love to know which of those games can offer as good of a return or better? It would have to be better than a 1.5% player advantage for it to qualify for me without using some ridiculous spread. Forget slots with an extremely high progressive jackpot. That would require a huge bankroll to take advantage of.
 

Martin Gayle

Well-Known Member
#9
Other than BJ and paramutuel poker the following games can be beaten through legal means.

I may argue that poker is not beatable without cheating. Especially when some stores take a 10% rake. Even a great player would be hard pressed to overcome a 10% rake.

But I digress...

Big Six - not a bias wheel but a bias croupier. And you do not have to be very accurate. I have seen automatic wheels, so, therefore I guess a wheel could be bias. You should be able to spot a bias dealer within a few mins. But a bias wheel would take a week.

Roulette - Bias wheel, 20,000 spins should be able to detect a bias. Try to use Super Wheel, tradition wheels depend on a croupier.

Craps can be beaten with a controlled roll. The myth here is that a controlled roll will turn up less 7's. Before the Golden Touch scammers came about these were called rhythmic rollers. They found their magic numbers and played them. Some dudes magic number is 7. Again, 20,000 mecanically identical rolls should easily determine your Hot Numbers.

Carribean Poker can be beaten when the jackpot gets to about $218,000. Or something like that. It is still a stupid game.

Baccarat can be beaten by card counting.

Some forms of Video Poker can be beaten through basic strategy which can be found on most gambling sites on the web.

All other games can be beaten with more difficulty and opportunity by being able to logically predict the outcome of the game before bets are made using all information available.
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#10
If you think that Baccarat can be beaten by card counting you are sadly mistaken.

I suggest that you read the appropriate chapter in "Theory of Blackjack", 6th edition, by Peter Griffin


You do own a copy, don't you ?
 
#11
FLASH1296 said:
If you think that Baccarat can be beaten by card counting you are sadly mistaken.

I suggest that you read the appropriate chapter in "Theory of Blackjack", 6th edition, by Peter Griffin


You do own a copy, don't you ?
Baccarat is beatable (Through card counting) by monitoring subsets of cards on the Tie bet towards the end of the shoe.

John May's 'Baccarat for the Clueless' covers this extensively.

Examples of such subsets and their corresponding advantages are given below:

"Card subset name: 10's + 5's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0

Tie Bet Advantage = 340.30936%


Card subset name: 10's + 6's + 4's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 32 0 32 0 0 0

Tie Bet Advantage = 152.01169%


Card subset name: 10's + 8's + 9's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 32

Tie Bet Advantage = 88.93232%


Card subset name: 10's + 6's + 7's + 8's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 0 0 0 0 32 32 32 0

Tie Bet Advantage = 47.61894%


Card subset name: 10's + 3's + 6's + 9's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 32 0 32 0 0 32 0 0 32

Tie Bet Advantage = 8.21853%


Card subset name: all-even valued cards

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0

Tie Bet advantage =62.02323%


Card subset name: all-even valued cards+5's

Card
Value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number 128 0 32 0 32 32 32 0 32 0

Tie Bet Advantage = 6.25045%"

Unfortunately, such advantages occur infrequently so you need a large enough spread to take advantage of them when they occur.

Quote from John May:

"Simulation data on computer-perfect analysis of the tie wager shows that if you can find a game where the last hand will be dealt from a 10-card subset, you can obtain a 1% advantage with a 45-1 spread, assuming you can detect favourable situations accurately.

We can therefore deduce that the game can be beaten because baccarat, as a general rule, has nothing like the heat associated with blackjack. You can spread up to the table maximum and down again, indeed you can sit out hands, no one will care. As David Sklansky wrote in Getting The Best Of It "There is not yet any paranoia among the casinos regarding counting...Players can bet anywhere from $5 up to $50,000 at any time. " ($50,000 is actually pretty conservative for bac nowadays). Obviously, if you could only make one $50,000 bet a year with a 100% edge, your EV for that year is still $50,000.

Naturally, the combination of large bets, an absence of heat, and huge advantages on individual hands, can make the game very profitable."
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#12
Take your pick

Any game in the casino can be played profitably and most other games have a much bigger advantage than card counting BJ. The problem is that you have to find the right conditions and be able to make big enough bets. The techniques involved are usually more difficult to learn but they are well worth it. Also, be aware that there are usually several ways to beat a game. Dice control is just one way to get an advantage at craps, there are several other legal ways as well. Card counting is just one way to beat baccarat (and, as Flash pointed out, pretty much worthless). Even Keno can be played profitably under the right conditions. Keep your eyes open and read everything you can about advanced techniques. Learn how they work and what to look for in the casinos. Most of this information has been published (and has been for a long time) but you'll be surprised how many casino employees don't read it or don't understand it. That's the main reason it isn't discussed on the web.

-Sonny-
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#13
Read me:

The book that you cite is mistaken.
May is not a mathematician. Griffin was.

Take note that tracking such rare "subsets" as alluded to is ludicrously difficult,
(when compared to a "True Count"), and can only occur when a very small number of cards are left in the shoe.
Such super-deep penetration is NOT the case and has not been since the early days of Baccarat
when it was played with cash and Dr. Thorpe made a small fortune betting on the natural 8" and "natural 9" bets.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#14
FLASH1296 said:
If you think that Baccarat can be beaten by card counting you are sadly mistaken.
If you can't be bothered to read the whole post before replying, you are not only sadly mistaken, but also pretty worthless as a poster. Take the effort you spend coloring your posts and put it into reading comprehension.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#15
Martin Gayle said:
I may argue that poker is not beatable without cheating. Especially when some stores take a 10% rake. Even a great player would be hard pressed to overcome a 10% rake.
A 10% rake is pretty hard to beat, but usually the rake is capped off at $4 or $5, so if the pot exceeds $40 or $50 (which it frequently does in even $3/$6 limit) the rake is actually lower.

Even with a 10% rake, though, games can be beaten, because people who play at low stakes are really poor players.
 

Martin Gayle

Well-Known Member
#16
Flash, I am not sure what your conclusion is...

First you outright deny that Baccarat can be beaten by counting citing Griffin/Thorpe. A second post almost alludes that it can be beaten but not worth it.

I am not familiar with May but the mathematics posted here seem pretty close to the Thorpe/Griffin conclusions. Pretty good for a non-mathematician.

Michael Shakelford also has a counting system for Baccarrat posted. He does say you cannot get an +EV unless 90% of cards are dealt.

...

I'd love to talk religion with you, I can foresee your premise now, "I have always believed in God but only if He exists."
 

cardcounter0

Well-Known Member
#17
3 Easy Steps (According to John May) for Beating Baccarat:

Step 1: find a game where the last hand will be dealt from a 10-card subset
Step 2: wait, trying to find that game in step 1. Still looking ...
Step 3: PROFIT !!!

:laugh:
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#18
cardcounter0 said:
Step 1: find a game where the last hand will be dealt from a 10-card subset
You don't need to have every last hand dealt out, but the deeper the penetration the better chance of you reaching the +18 true count you need to gain an advantage.
 

cardcounter0

Well-Known Member
#19
callipygian said:
You don't need to have every last hand dealt out, but the deeper the penetration the better chance of you reaching the +18 true count you need to gain an advantage.

I was directly quoting the "expert" John May:

Quote from John May:

"Simulation data on computer-perfect analysis of the tie wager shows that if you can find a game where the last hand will be dealt from a 10-card subset, you can obtain a 1% advantage with a 45-1 spread, assuming you can detect favourable situations accurately.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#20
You would need obscene pen to do it, but there may some casino somewhere that deals that deeply. Keep in mind that you have a piece of paper with you. Two people could probably keep track of all the cards.

But, baccarat isn't worth it. You might as well just play blackjack.
 
Top