Need advice from experienced players

#1
Hello. I am trying to put up a team in my area. The games we have access to are 8 decks DAS S17 no surrender $25-$500 tables. We are considering implementing the BP strategy. Our bankroll will be 50k. I am trying to figure out a spotter to BP ratio that minimizes the postive count overlaps across tables. I need some inputs from experienced players in this field. The team will consist at least 2 spotters and a BP. What count is optimal for spotters to call in the BP in this case? The tables won't be too crowded, usually around 2-3 ppl not including the BP. The spotters will be backcounting, and move on to other tables once BP enters. I am thinking a TC = 2 and above. If we can get one more spotter on our team, should I raise the TC to 3 to be efficient enough to avoid overlaps? Ideally, I am hoping I can get a 5 ppl team, with 2 BPs and 3 spotters, is this a good combination? I have played BJ for a while now, but never really played in a team environment.

Secondly, in terms of betting. I have heard many different opnions. According to Wong's book, the Kelly criterion would be 50k x percentage advantage x 0.76 for one hand, 0.56 for two hands and 0.45 for three hands. Assuming that I am only playing one hand, and entering at TC=2+ then my betting ramp would be 190 at TC = 2, 380 at TC = 3, 570 etc... which is apprently too big of a swing and RoR. So the standard is of course somewhere around the ballpark of 0.5Kelly, which makes it about 100 at TC = 2, 200 at TC = 3, 300 at TC = 4, $400 at TC = 5 and $500 table max at TC = 6. On the other hand, Keven Blackwood did not include the adjusting factor of 0.76 for Kelly, and therefore the 0.5Kelly would yield 125 at TC = 2, 250 at TC = 3, 375 at TC = 4, and 500 at TC = 5. Which is more optimal in our situation? What is the adjusting factor that Wong had anyway? One more betting strategy was mention by one of our members here at the forum. It was the betting strategy from the old MIT team. They divided the BR/1000 and figure out the $/unit, then use TC - offset(which is 1) and bet out 1 unit starting from TC = 2. In my case, it would be $50 at TC = 2, $100 TC = 3, $150 at TC = 4, etc... which is ultra conservative. By adjusting a bit by dividing BR by 500, you would yield a betting ramp very close to Wong's optimal betting ramp. So, how do you decide how much to divide your BRs by?

Thirdly, if it's not too much to ask for, can someone run a sim for me please? I understand there's a lot of variables in my case, please make your assumptions and state them when presenting the results. Thanks a lot.

I would really appreciate any input from you. Hopefully I can get all these factors sorted out before we go to the casinos. Thanks in advance.
 
#2
qzj said:
Hello. I am trying to put up a team in my area....
Stop right there. If you are not an experienced player you are not ready to put together a team or play on a team. Earn your stripes on your own for a few years, then revisit this.
 

ricopuno

Active Member
#4
qzj said:
Hello. I am trying to put up a team in my area. The games we have access to are 8 decks DAS S17 no surrender $25-$500 tables. We are considering implementing the BP strategy. Our bankroll will be 50k. I am trying to figure out a spotter to BP ratio that minimizes the postive count overlaps across tables. I need some inputs from experienced players in this field. The team will consist at least 2 spotters and a BP.
Forget the BP, learn card counting, disguise then play on your own.
 

ricopuno

Active Member
#5
By the way if the table is full don't raise your bet at TC = +2 . Only raise your

bet at TC = +3. It is too risky to raise bet at TC= +2 unless your acceptable

risk of ruin is high .
 

ricopuno

Active Member
#6
Sorry I forgot. But if the table is not full specially if you are alone then raise bet

at TC = +2 and bet 2 hands risk of ruin will be less compared to when the table

is full. This is my experience.
 
#7
If you've got a 50k bankroll you should have a sim program and know how to use it yourself. If you want someone to verify your results, that's understandable but don't depend on someone else's sim when 50k is riding on it. If you want to start a team go ahead in my opinion and give us updates on this thread. I think it would be interesting to watch your progress and see if the naysayers were right or not. Hell, it's your 50k, it's not like you would have done much investing it over the last year or so.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#8
You probably won't be ready to start a team for at least a year or two. Keep learning and practicing until then. A good place to start is the Frequently Asked Questions thread. For example:

Q: I want to start a team. How should we bet?
A: Well, if you don’t know how to bet then you aren’t ready to start a team. Keep studying and practicing until you have every piece of your game plan ready. In the meantime, read through some of these old threads:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=28662
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=6468

-Sonny-
 
#9
I don't understand this concept:

ricopuno said:
By the way if the table is full don't raise your bet at TC = +2 . Only raise your bet at TC = +3. It is too risky to raise bet at TC= +2 unless your acceptable risk of ruin is high .
Presumably, a TC of +3 equates to an advantage of 1% (or whatever your system tells you). That is, the dealer is at a 1% disadvantage. How do more players reduce your advantage? When the true count is +3, each player has the same increased chance of receiving big cards.

I understand that, I will get bigger cards more often when the proportion of my hands (1 or 2) to total hands (1 to 7) against the dealer is large, but the same goes for the dealer. Is this just gibberish?

The difference from TC +2 to +3 seems quite large, and in an 8D game, I'm not sure how much significance extra players have on reducing one's advantage.

Your statement seems to make the assumption that, if there are more players at the table, you will be less likely to benefit from positive count, as other players may "steal" your big cards? But does your statement give the same repect to the dealer? Rather, is your statement only in regards to standard deviation (ROR), and the expectation will be the same.

Can anyone please shed some light?
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#11
ricopuno said:
By the way if the table is full don't raise your bet at TC = +2 . Only raise your

bet at TC = +3. It is too risky to raise bet at TC= +2 unless your acceptable

risk of ruin is high .
Besides this being a classic case of voudou, your RoR, changes very little depending on the number of players. Besides that, it would make more sense to me, to lower it with a full table, not raise it.
 
#12
qzj..let me guess

qzj said:
Hello. I am trying to put up a team in my area. The games we have access to are 8 decks DAS S17 no surrender $25-$500 tables. We are considering implementing the BP strategy. Our bankroll will be 50k. I am trying to figure out a spotter to BP ratio that minimizes the postive count overlaps across tables. I need some inputs from experienced players in this field. The team will consist at least 2 spotters and a BP. What count is optimal for spotters to call in the BP in this case? The tables won't be too crowded, usually around 2-3 ppl not including the BP. The spotters will be backcounting, and move on to other tables once BP enters. I am thinking a TC = 2 and above. If we can get one more spotter on our team, should I raise the TC to 3 to be efficient enough to avoid overlaps? Ideally, I am hoping I can get a 5 ppl team, with 2 BPs and 3 spotters, is this a good combination? I have played BJ for a while now, but never really played in a team environment.

Secondly, in terms of betting. I have heard many different opnions. According to Wong's book, the Kelly criterion would be 50k x percentage advantage x 0.76 for one hand, 0.56 for two hands and 0.45 for three hands. Assuming that I am only playing one hand, and entering at TC=2+ then my betting ramp would be 190 at TC = 2, 380 at TC = 3, 570 etc... which is apprently too big of a swing and RoR. So the standard is of course somewhere around the ballpark of 0.5Kelly, which makes it about 100 at TC = 2, 200 at TC = 3, 300 at TC = 4, $400 at TC = 5 and $500 table max at TC = 6. On the other hand, Keven Blackwood did not include the adjusting factor of 0.76 for Kelly, and therefore the 0.5Kelly would yield 125 at TC = 2, 250 at TC = 3, 375 at TC = 4, and 500 at TC = 5. Which is more optimal in our situation? What is the adjusting factor that Wong had anyway? One more betting strategy was mention by one of our members here at the forum. It was the betting strategy from the old MIT team. They divided the BR/1000 and figure out the $/unit, then use TC - offset(which is 1) and bet out 1 unit starting from TC = 2. In my case, it would be $50 at TC = 2, $100 TC = 3, $150 at TC = 4, etc... which is ultra conservative. By adjusting a bit by dividing BR by 500, you would yield a betting ramp very close to Wong's optimal betting ramp. So, how do you decide how much to divide your BRs by?

Thirdly, if it's not too much to ask for, can someone run a sim for me please? I understand there's a lot of variables in my case, please make your assumptions and state them when presenting the results. Thanks a lot.

I would really appreciate any input from you. Hopefully I can get all these factors sorted out before we go to the casinos. Thanks in advance.

You saw the movie 21? How long have you been an AP? :confused:

Your post is really....:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

CP
 
#13
qzj, try this

qzj said:
Hello. I am trying to put up a team in my area. The games we have access to are 8 decks DAS S17 no surrender $25-$500 tables. We are considering implementing the BP strategy. Our bankroll will be 50k. I am trying to figure out a spotter to BP ratio that minimizes the postive count overlaps across tables. I need some inputs from experienced players in this field. The team will consist at least 2 spotters and a BP. What count is optimal for spotters to call in the BP in this case? The tables won't be too crowded, usually around 2-3 ppl not including the BP. The spotters will be backcounting, and move on to other tables once BP enters. I am thinking a TC = 2 and above. If we can get one more spotter on our team, should I raise the TC to 3 to be efficient enough to avoid overlaps? Ideally, I am hoping I can get a 5 ppl team, with 2 BPs and 3 spotters, is this a good combination? I have played BJ for a while now, but never really played in a team environment.

Secondly, in terms of betting. I have heard many different opnions. According to Wong's book, the Kelly criterion would be 50k x percentage advantage x 0.76 for one hand, 0.56 for two hands and 0.45 for three hands. Assuming that I am only playing one hand, and entering at TC=2+ then my betting ramp would be 190 at TC = 2, 380 at TC = 3, 570 etc... which is apprently too big of a swing and RoR. So the standard is of course somewhere around the ballpark of 0.5Kelly, which makes it about 100 at TC = 2, 200 at TC = 3, 300 at TC = 4, $400 at TC = 5 and $500 table max at TC = 6. On the other hand, Keven Blackwood did not include the adjusting factor of 0.76 for Kelly, and therefore the 0.5Kelly would yield 125 at TC = 2, 250 at TC = 3, 375 at TC = 4, and 500 at TC = 5. Which is more optimal in our situation? What is the adjusting factor that Wong had anyway? One more betting strategy was mention by one of our members here at the forum. It was the betting strategy from the old MIT team. They divided the BR/1000 and figure out the $/unit, then use TC - offset(which is 1) and bet out 1 unit starting from TC = 2. In my case, it would be $50 at TC = 2, $100 TC = 3, $150 at TC = 4, etc... which is ultra conservative. By adjusting a bit by dividing BR by 500, you would yield a betting ramp very close to Wong's optimal betting ramp. So, how do you decide how much to divide your BRs by?

Thirdly, if it's not too much to ask for, can someone run a sim for me please? I understand there's a lot of variables in my case, please make your assumptions and state them when presenting the results. Thanks a lot.

I would really appreciate any input from you. Hopefully I can get all these factors sorted out before we go to the casinos. Thanks in advance.
We have the "BJ BASH" coming up rather soon, :celebrate, you want a team?? Try this on for size, bring your $50,000, a team of skilled and seasoned AP's will be waiting and ready, and willing to put in a long session at a FAR better game than you are talking about and will take a 25% cut of the winnings.:grin:

qzj, this is your golden opportunity, it's up to you...what will you do?

CP
 
#14
Thanks for all the comments. I do understand that I currently have very little experience in team plays, which is why I am willing to learn and posting my questions here. For those of you who said that I am not ready yet, I agree, I am still in preperation of putting up this team. I have played BJ for approximately 7 years by now, and I was really against the concept of playing as a team because I thought why split the earning when you can do it on your own? But I realized that playing as a team can significantly increase your profit, the only issue is whether you have someone you can trust to form this team. I am sure some people will think that I am a beginner that saw a movie or something and got all excited trying to form my own team, if that's the case, please ignore my comment about me trying to form a team, could you please just focus on my questions that I asked, and help me with those? I appreciate your help.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#15
To answer your original questions...

qzj said:
The games we have access to are 8 decks DAS S17 no surrender $25-$500 tables.
You don’t mention the most important thing – the penetration. Although it almost doesn’t matter in this case. My advice would be the same either way: Don’t play those games. It is a waste of time. Either find better games or find a better team strategy. The BP method you describe isn’t going to cut it against those games.

qzj said:
I am trying to figure out a spotter to BP ratio that minimizes the postive count overlaps across tables.
It depends on the number of tables available, the speed of the dealers and other players, the speed of the shuffle (hand shuffle or ASM?), the crowd conditions, the “mobility” of you and your spotters, etc. The 2:1 and 3:2 ratios you describe are a good start if you use them properly but you may have to adjust things if you run into problems. The more probl;ems you can anticipate beforehand, the better.

qzj said:
If we can get one more spotter on our team, should I raise the TC to 3 to be efficient enough to avoid overlaps?
You could, but then you would have to recalculate all of your bets. You would also have to split the money more ways. The correct decision depends on what betting ramps you would use, how you pay your players and all of the factors mentioned in the previous section. The low table limits will also be a big factor here.

qzj said:
So the standard is of course somewhere around the ballpark of 0.5Kelly, which makes it about 100 at TC = 2, 200 at TC = 3, 300 at TC = 4, $400 at TC = 5 and $500 table max at TC = 6.
Playing half-Kelly is still pretty risky for a team unless you play on resizing your bets at certain intervals. The bet ramp you mention above is very conservative so your RoR is lower but your win rate is also much lower. I would advise more than a 1:6 spread also. That just isn’t going to get much done against these games even with the Wonging.

qzj said:
What is the adjusting factor that Wong had anyway?
Wong is accounting for the variance of the game. It is part of the Kelly formula:

Bet = Bankroll * Edge / Variance

qzj said:
One more betting strategy was mention by one of our members here at the forum. It was the betting strategy from the old MIT team.
Forget about it. That is a style of betting that was popular back in the 80s. It is effective but not optimal in most situations. In your case you need something more powerful.

qzj said:
Thirdly, if it's not too much to ask for, can someone run a sim for me please?
For a 5% RoR I would guess about a $120/hour EV if you play quickly and bet aggressively. That’s $40/hour per player. And the heat of spreading to two hands of the table max will probably kill you long before you see any of that profit. Don’t play those games. It is a waste of time.

While you’re looking for better games, keep studying. Learn about Kelly betting, learn about bet sizing and bankroll management, learn about optimal departure points, learn about other team strategies, learn about team management, training, quality control, payment schedules, salaries, overhead costs, etc. Get some sim software and experiment with different strategies. Play at some casinos so that you can get a feel for the different heat levels, employee competence, weak times, busy times, vulnerable times, etc. Like I said before, it will be at least a year or two before you’re ready to start a team. Don’t put your $50k at risk until you have a solid plan that you know will work.

-Sonny-
 
#16
Thank you so much Sonny for patiently answering my questions.
I definitely have a lot to learn in terms of team plays, and I am doing exactly that - learning as I go. Personally, as long as I do bet at TC=3+ and keep my RoR under control, given my betting ramp, I don't think I'd be really risking my 50K, in my case I thought the worst we could do is "earning less than optimal" since I will most likely implement a rather conservative betting strategy in the beginning. Until I can start to get a hang of it, I will slowly modify my betting strategies later on.

I do agree, however, that the games I have access to are pretty much at the bottom of the list. I have a full time job though which is why I may not have so much time to travel around to find the best tables. I am only trying to learn the skills rather than making tons of money with it, since I do have a decent-pay full time job, and 50K is something I can comfortably lose if I ever run into a bad streak, but of course I have no intention of throwing it away.

I guess what I am trying to say is, thank you Sonny for the answers, and thanks people for all the advice you guys gave me, the team is not going to be up within the next 4-6 months until I finish my detailed plans. I am learning at this point and I hope you can lend me a hand, that's all I am asking for.

Any constructive criticism is appreciated.
 
#18
Hi qzj,

I do not presume to be an advanced player. However, I have selectively considered replies by other posters, and the general consensus seems to be that it takes more skill to play on a team than as an individual. That is, you should be an expert individual player before you consider joining (or starting) a team.

You ask for more criticism, but it seems clear enough. You should not join a team. If you need to ask these types of questions, you are not ready for team play. Once you are able to answer this question for yourself, you are probably still not ready for team play, but you should be much closer.

I do not know the answer to your optimal team betting questions. I believe a player with enough skill to justifiably consider joining a team would be able to answer the question for themselves. This is probably the reason you are not getting the concrete replies you are looking for.
 
#19
non-self-weighter said:
Hi qzj,

I do not presume to be an advanced player. However, I have selectively considered replies by other posters, and the general consensus seems to be that it takes more skill to play on a team than as an individual. That is, you should be an expert individual player before you consider joining (or starting) a team.

You ask for more criticism, but it seems clear enough. You should not join a team. If you need to ask these types of questions, you are not ready for team play. Once you are able to answer this question for yourself, you are probably still not ready for team play, but you should be much closer.

I do not know the answer to your optimal team betting questions. I believe a player with enough skill to justifiably consider joining a team would be able to answer the question for themselves. This is probably the reason you are not getting the concrete replies you are looking for.

Fair enough. Thanks anyways.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#20
qzj said:
Personally, as long as I do bet at TC=3+ and keep my RoR under control, given my betting ramp, I don't think I'd be really risking my 50K, in my case I thought the worst we could do is "earning less than optimal" since I will most likely implement a rather conservative betting strategy in the beginning.
I am only trying to learn the skills rather than making tons of money with it, since I do have a decent-pay full time job, and 50K is something I can comfortably lose ..
Well, I'll just say what I think lol.

I didn't realize you'd be the only investor in your team. If it's your $50K, I'd probably just back-count myself and forget the spotters. Let me get this straight, they risk nothing, win if you win, lose nothing if you lose or win all the time no matter what happens becasue you pay them by the hour or something?

All the more so, if you are not overly concerned about winning tons of money in the first place and want to learn about your skills and what to expect from them.

I hope this is a game allowing mid-shoe entry lol.

It sounds like you, or the team, will never play a hand below +2.

I'd implement an "optimal" betting strategy,ramp, at all times and forget about "conservative" spreads. You may as well bet the "optimal"number of units at any TC than some other number. This will keep the best ratio of EV to SD at all times.

If you are back-counting, like it sounds to me, spreading much more than 1-4 doesn't gain that much anyway. Spreading 1-2 instead of 1-4 doesn't lose very much more either, probably.

This $190 stuff at +2 is fine if your advantage at +2 is 0.5%. But it's not, it's likely more. Probably at +4 it's alot closer to 2% than 1.5%.

And, of course, all 8D S17 DAS are not created equal as you simplistically ask about. Some may be dealt 7/8, some , say, 5.5/8.

Only playing counts at +2 or more might mean you only play 15 rounds of 100 seen.

Whoever said buy a sim and learn how to use it, is the absolute best advice you could ever get here, with or without a team lol. But, then again, I guess you've already been playing 7 years without one. I guess that means, worst case, by now, even if it never had the slightest benefit to you, you've been blowing that 80 cents a month for a really long time lol.

And the more complicated you want to get, like with 3 spootters, 2 BP players, worrying about "lost opportunities becasue a spotter says "come over, it's great but you are already playing a great count etc, the more you need a sim.
 
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