counting realistic for the casual player?

#1
Hi everyone-
I usually hit the casinos maybe 3 times a year. On a recent trip, for the first time, I really tried to learn basic strategy and did quite well. I understand this was more 'luck' than anything else, but my interest in maximizing my chances has been piqued.
I'm a software engineer by trade, so relatively good with numbers, as well as spotting patterns, repetition, etc.
would the effort taken to memorize basic strategy and be sufficiently accurate at counting be worth it for 6-10 hours of playing per year? Or would i still be subject to variance (luck)?

Thanks!
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#2
By all means, learn basic strategy if you're going to play at all. For playing a few hours/year, in all honesty, it's probably not worth learning to count, as:
1. Short-term variance (luck) will prevail
2. You won't get proficient at counting playing so little.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#3
Read "Blackjack Bluebook II"

As an alternative to counting, pick up the book "Blackjack Bluebook II." There are some techniques described in there that are easy for non-counters to pick up, and they'll improve your odds over basic strategy -- not enough to give you an advantage, but you'll move a bit closer to an even game.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#4
If you don't have the proper basic strategy down pat for the game you are playing, don't hesitate to use one of those plastic strategy cards. Just be sure you are using the right one.
 
#5
no way

If you dont go to the casino pretty often its really not worth the time and effort.Also counting is a long term deal, like was said earlier playing a few hours your still subject to what some call "luck" but the swings are just to crazy playing short term like that. Basically it would be like hunting turkey with equpiment for elephant. I would however learn basic strategy as it will help you to at least lose less, but understand basic strategy is still a losing game and even with great rules your at a disadvantage.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#6
If you're going to go and gamble 3-4 times a year anyway, then sure, counting can let you play with an advantage, at the expense of some serious practice. The size of the advantage may not manifest itself over your gambling lifetime though, so you might have to be satisfied with just the knowledge that you had an advantage, rather than actual winnings.

Just bear in mind not to let knowing how to count lead you to betting more than you're comfortable with.
 

Renzey

Well-Known Member
#7
bringitonhome said:
Would the effort taken to memorize basic strategy and be sufficiently accurate at counting be worth it for 6-10 hours of playing per year? Or would i still be subject to variance (luck)?
Two quick, short sims say that with 6 decks, S17, DAS and 70% pen, flat betting basic strategy play will win over the course of 10 hours 45% of the time. Using Hi/Lo with 6 index plays and spreading 1-to-6 will win 54% of the time. It's up to you.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#8
Just get a basic strategy card, and a copy of "Comp City" by Max Rubin. You'll make more from comps and have more fun.
 
#9
Renzey said:
Two quick, short sims say that with 6 decks, S17, DAS and 70% pen, flat betting basic strategy play will win over the course of 10 hours 45% of the time. Using Hi/Lo with 6 index plays and spreading 1-to-6 will win 54% of the time. It's up to you.
very interesting. So - does that mean 45% of the hands will be winning hands, or 45% of ten hour sessions will be winnings sessions money-wise? (or are they the same thing? ;) )

what software are you using for this?
 

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#10
bringitonhome said:
very interesting. So - does that mean 45% of the hands will be winning hands, or 45% of ten hour sessions will be winnings sessions money-wise? (or are they the same thing? ;) )
almost throughout you will win 42% of your hands. you will lose 48% of your hands and push the rest. What Fred is saying is that 45% of the time if you play a 10 hour session you will be up in money. the other 55% of the time you will lose. If you can get a slight advantage by using a counting system and a very modest spread, the result will be that you will still lose the same NUMBER of hands, but you will have bigger bets out in situations where you will have the opportunity to get more BJs and DDs. It's these instances that make a negative expectation game positive.
 
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