I watched the videos by Symeon Dukach and got a little confused. He did a quick explanation about EV and Deviation but it is not 100% clear to me.
He explains that on an average bet of $100 with a 1% edge you can expect to win 1,000,000 on the same amount of hands. So basically you put in a hundred million and you can expect to get back 1 million. However, because of standard deviation, you will almost never get exactly what you expect. So he says on 1 million hands you have a standard deviation of $115,000 (square root of a million x115). Now is that the standard deviation or the variance? He calls it the SD.
Now I found out that SD is the square of the variance. So a variance of 100 means 1 stand deviation of 10. If that is true, a SD of 115,000 would have a variance of 13 billion, and doesn't seem to work. It would seem to me that 115,000 is the variance and the SD is $339. Do I understand this correctly or am I way off?
Now if 115,000 is the variance, does that mean that if we have an expected value of 1 million we will most likely make in the 1,115,000 - 885000, but that 66% of the time we will be + or - 339 from our expected value, and if we are 2 Standard Deviations off, 33% of the time we will see a divergence of $678?
thanks in advance!!!
He explains that on an average bet of $100 with a 1% edge you can expect to win 1,000,000 on the same amount of hands. So basically you put in a hundred million and you can expect to get back 1 million. However, because of standard deviation, you will almost never get exactly what you expect. So he says on 1 million hands you have a standard deviation of $115,000 (square root of a million x115). Now is that the standard deviation or the variance? He calls it the SD.
Now I found out that SD is the square of the variance. So a variance of 100 means 1 stand deviation of 10. If that is true, a SD of 115,000 would have a variance of 13 billion, and doesn't seem to work. It would seem to me that 115,000 is the variance and the SD is $339. Do I understand this correctly or am I way off?
Now if 115,000 is the variance, does that mean that if we have an expected value of 1 million we will most likely make in the 1,115,000 - 885000, but that 66% of the time we will be + or - 339 from our expected value, and if we are 2 Standard Deviations off, 33% of the time we will see a divergence of $678?
thanks in advance!!!