Professional Roulette Prediction

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#3
The methods described in the book DO work. Problem is, it's extremely difficult to learn, and even MORE difficult to PERFECT. Then when you DO master it, you end up with an edge that, in practice; is smaller than what you can get by counting cards. You'll almost have to be insane to try it in the U.S., with the double zero games. AND; because roulette is not an even money game, the variance is so bad it will make your BJ swings look like a sure thing.

Then once you decide you can handle all of these problems, you'll go in to play, and that's when Murphy's law is going to take over. Whatever can go wrong will; changing dealers, changing ball weights, etc. Imagine standing around for six months, recording 50,000 spins, hoping to find a bias in the wheel; then you come to find out that the wheel wasn't biased AFTER all! Or; you find the bias, and the night before you finally decide it's time to play, they change the whole wheel.

Small wonder he'd rather sell the system than play it himself.
 

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#4
Sucker said:
The methods described in the book DO work. Problem is, it's extremely difficult to learn, and even MORE difficult to PERFECT. Then when you DO master it, you end up with an edge that, in practice; is smaller than what you can get by counting cards. You'll almost have to be insane to try it in the U.S., with the double zero games. AND; because roulette is not an even money game, the variance is so bad it will make your BJ swings look like a sure thing.

Then once you decide you can handle all of these problems, you'll go in to play, and that's when Murphy's law is going to take over. Whatever can go wrong will; changing dealers, changing ball weights, etc. Imagine standing around for six months, recording 50,000 spins, hoping to find a bias in the wheel; then you come to find out that the wheel wasn't biased AFTER all! Or; you find the bias, and the night before you finally decide it's time to play, they change the whole wheel.

Small wonder he'd rather sell the system than play it himself.
I went ahead and ordered it. Will give a book report if there's anything good.

I don't think the variance would be worse than BJ. I would liken it more to craps. The jury is still out on both games if they are beatable, stirring many a heated arguments and controversies. The huge difference between card games vs craps and roulette are the complexities and millions of permutations possible in the card sets. Getting your edge in a card game can take quite awhile as you wait and have your BR have wild wild swings. Even if you could HC perfectly for a 13% edge, you'd still have wild swings.

Craps and roulette, are very simple games. roulette has only 38 possible outcomes, craps 36. theoretically, these are games based on skill and some math, vs card games based on math and some skill. theoretically, one should know very quickly whether they have the skill to defeat the HE and have minimal variance to boot.

Of course these skills are probably elite level. Like being the Lebron james for craps or roulette.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#5
Jack_Black said:
I went ahead and ordered it. Will give a book report if there's anything good.

I don't think the variance would be worse than BJ. I would liken it more to craps. The jury is still out on both games if they are beatable, stirring many a heated arguments and controversies. The huge difference between card games vs craps and roulette are the complexities and millions of permutations possible in the card sets. Getting your edge in a card game can take quite awhile as you wait and have your BR have wild wild swings. Even if you could HC perfectly for a 13% edge, you'd still have wild swings.

Craps and roulette, are very simple games. roulette has only 38 possible outcomes, craps 36. theoretically, these are games based on skill and some math, vs card games based on math and some skill. theoretically, one should know very quickly whether they have the skill to defeat the HE and have minimal variance to boot.

Of course these skills are probably elite level. Like being the Lebron james for craps or roulette.
I know a guy who beat craps back in the old days. The old fashioned way. He and all the pit crew were in cahoots. At least, so he says...
 

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
#6
Jack_Black said:
Craps and roulette, are very simple games. roulette has only 38 possible outcomes, craps 36. theoretically, these are games based on skill and some math, vs card games based on math and some skill. theoretically, one should know very quickly whether they have the skill to defeat the HE and have minimal variance to boot.
I don't have any idea what techniques are discussed in the book, but I have a hard time seeing roulette as a low variance game. Craps too, although admittedly I know virtually nothing about craps. Am I missing something?
 

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#8
Why is it hard to see why a simple game with 36 or 38 outcomes will be low in variance? Particularly, much lower in variance compared with a game that is played with at least 52 components(deck of cards) that can have millions of possible outcomes? How many different combinations are possible for a blackjack? Make sure to count for each ace, ten and face card in a deck, then multiply it by the number of decks in play. How many possible combinations are there to get 7 on a come out?
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#9
Nynefingers said:
I don't have any idea what techniques are discussed in the book, but I have a hard time seeing roulette as a low variance game. . . .
It depends how one approaches the game. Although it's not possible to do anything to alter the house edge, it is possible to bet in such a way as to reduce variance (to zero actually) or to accept it at it's maximum in the hope of getting luck and winning big - or bet in a way that is somewhere in the middle (some variance with some possibity of winning where it goes the right side of the bell curve).

Assuming a single zero wheel, betting a single chip on all 37 numbers straight up will result in losing one chip per spin or 2.70% of your wager. There is no variance from the expectation. Betting a single chip on a single number will result in maximum variance.

In order not to seem anti-social, when Mrs UK sits down at a roulette table I now play a little - and adopt a strategy of covering the maximum numbers of the table for the least cost which provides a possibility of coming out ahead for that session. Over the long term though, the HE will prevail.
 

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
#10
I suppose if you find a biased wheel and bet a good portion of the favored numbers, the variance will be reasonable, but I'm not interested in how to reduce the variance of a -ev game. I just won't play. But I still disagree with Jack_Black's argument. The number of combinations and the number of outcomes (and distribution of those outcomes) are two different things. Blackjack may have a huge number of possible card combinations, but there are still only a handful of possible payoff outcomes, from -8 to +8, and those payoffs are heavily weighted towards the middle of that range. A single hand of BJ has a variance of something like 1.33 if I remember right. A single spin of the roulette wheel (betting only 1 number) has a variance of 34.11. If you get more numbers, the variance drops fairly quickly, but you've gotta be betting the even money bets (or a ton of individual numbers) to have a variance as low as BJ. Even betting 1st 12, etc. has a higher variance than BJ. If you can get an edge, the variance isn't the end of the world, but it does impact your optimal bet. But I still have a hard time seeing how roulette can be called a low variance game. I guess it depends on your "normal variance" reference game, which for me is blackjack.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#11
Your right with regard to the variance I think. For an equivalent level of variance I think you need to be betting 18/37 numbers or better. My strategy is to cover 28/37 numbers with 5 chips which will return me either 1 chip if 24 of them come up and 4 chips if 4 of them come up. If I double up on 4 of the x6 number blocks it means I wager 9 chips which result in being 3 up if 24/37 come up, and even out if 4/37 come out.

As I stated earlier, this doesn't defray the HE, just means that on balance of probability, the levels of variance result in the buy in lasting a bit longer than when simply playing the evens bets.
 

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
#12
With the Touch Bet Roulette you can bet $10 on zero and $180 each on Red and Black. You wll lose $10 every round. You have zero variance here.
Why would I want to do this. Because I am making a straight purchase of the Comp points from the casino. For every $10 lost the machine will credit me with 0.67 points i.e. $15 for very point.
With 15 points I can book a cabin for a 2N3D cruise, inside cabin for up to 3 pax. Interested?
 

Machinist

Well-Known Member
#13
Yes

Mr. T said:
With the Touch Bet Roulette you can bet $10 on zero and $180 each on Red and Black. You wll lose $10 every round. You have zero variance here.
Why would I want to do this. Because I am making a straight purchase of the Comp points from the casino. For every $10 lost the machine will credit me with 0.67 points i.e. $15 for very point.
With 15 points I can book a cabin for a 2N3D cruise, inside cabin for up to 3 pax. Interested?
Vewwwwy interesting..

Machininist
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#14
Mr. T said:
With the Touch Bet Roulette you can bet $10 on zero and $180 each on Red and Black. You wll lose $10 every round. You have zero variance here.
Why would I want to do this. Because I am making a straight purchase of the Comp points from the casino. For every $10 lost the machine will credit me with 0.67 points i.e. $15 for very point.
With 15 points I can book a cabin for a 2N3D cruise, inside cabin for up to 3 pax. Interested?
I'm slow. Is that $150 for a 2N3D cruise for up to 3 passengers NSA?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#15
Jack_Black said:
Why is it hard to see why a simple game with 36 or 38 outcomes will be low in variance? Particularly, much lower in variance compared with a game that is played with at least 52 components(deck of cards) that can have millions of possible outcomes?
Because the variance (in terms of betting units) has nothing to do with the number of outcomes. The main factors are the frequency of the payoffs (skewness) and the amount of the payoffs (volatility). Blackjack is pretty close to an even game in terms of wins and losses, and the payouts are usually 1, 1.5 or 2 units. That keeps the variance pretty low (about 1.33 units per hand).

The variance of roulette obviously depends on which bets you are making. The red/black bets are even money so the variance is only 1 unit. (slightly less than BJ) But the straight-up number bets pay 35:1 and only win 1/38th of the time so the variance shoots up to 33.2 units per hand. That’s about 25 times more volatile than BJ! :eek:

Now I’m not familiar with Scott’s system, but I would have to assume that it involves betting on 3-5 numbers per spin. If he’s doing section shooting then it might be more, but 3-5 is probably a good compromise. Spreading your money around does lower the variance somewhat, but under regular (non-advantage) conditions the variance will be around 7.63 units per spin (112 initial units if you count it as 4 bets instead of 1 bet spread over 4 spots). But your advantage would have to be pretty big (or your bankroll even bigger!) to make that variance look better than the other games at your casino. As you start to get an advantage the payouts will come more frequently causing even higher variance (albeit more pleasant). But still, with such a tiny probability of winning you are going to see looooong stretches of losing with occasional windfalls. And we laugh at positive progression players for playing that way. :eek:

-Sonny-
 

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
#17
Cruise Date: from April 2010 onwards

New Points Redemption Subsequent cabin rate


BA O/View Stateroom wz Balcony (Deck 11) 30 80
BB O/View Stateroom wz Balcony (Deck 10) 30 80 80 110
BC O/View Stateroom wz Balcony (Deck 9) 30 80 80 110
CA O/View Stateroom wz Window (Deck 8 & 9) 20 60 60 80 1,300 800 500 700
CB O/View Stateroom wz Window (Deck 6) 20 60 60 80
CC O/View Stateroom wz Window (Deck 5) 20 60 60 80
CD O/View Stateroom wz Porthole (Deck 5 & 6) 20 60 60 80
DA Inside Stateroom (Deck 10 & 11) 15 50 40 55 1,200 750 450 600
DB Inside Stateroom (Deck 8 & 9) 15 50 40 55
DC Inside Stateroom (Deck 6) 15 50 40 55
DD Inside Stateroom (Deck 5) 15 50 40 55


3rd pax Inclusive of 3rd Pax
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#18
Mr. T said:
$15 per point x 15 points = $225
haha that's what I first calculated but for some reason said 10 times...duh

must have remembered the $10 lost which had nothing to do with the calculation

I think I'm losing it
 

Elhombre

Well-Known Member
#19
Jack_Black said:
Thinking about buying this book. Has anyone else read it and tried the techniques? Is it a scam or not? Can't seem to find much internet presence on the book, or Laurance Scott, or wheel watching in general!!

http://www.advantageplayer.com/roulette/index.html
Jack, I have Scott's Volume 1 from a friend, it's no scam.
My advice go to advantageplayer at the top to Roulette and
then to the forum. Read all the postings.

Specially the postings from Kelly, I know Kelly, he is honest, he lives
in Denmark and has posted very often in my home Roulette Forum :

paroli.de , unfortunately it's all in German.

There is another website : Kaisan. de, I know him well, he is IMHO the
best wheelwatcher of the world.

E.H.
 

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#20
Elhombre said:


Jack, I have Scott's Volume 1 from a friend, it's no scam.
My advice go to advantageplayer at the top to Roulette and
then to the forum. Read all the postings.

Specially the postings from Kelly, I know Kelly, he is honest, he lives
in Denmark and has posted very often in my home Roulette Forum :

paroli.de , unfortunately it's all in German.

There is another website : Kaisan. de, I know him well, he is IMHO the
best wheelwatcher of the world.

E.H.

verrrrry interesting.........

thanks hombre!
 
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