eddiegnz1 said:
I just feel like I'm running into disproportionately more negative shoes than positive shoes ... Do you know what the frequency distribution actually is in the long run?
On a fair deck with a completely randomized shuffle, the frequency distribution should be symmetric and in the long run 50%-50% positive-negative.
However, in reality, there are three issues you have to deal with:
(1) Non-random shuffles (hand, machine, or electronic). A hand shuffle is only as good as the hands that shuffle, and machines have liabilities too. Computerized RNG's aren't completely random either. So it's possible that you are getting non-random shuffles.
(2) Non-fair decks. Eh, let's face it, people can cheat. It's unlikely, but it could happen. To cheat you properly, though, the house would take out high cards and let the count drift upward. That the count drifts downward is actually in your favor - it means all the high cards are coming out.
(3) Recall bias. Given a 50-50 distribution of positive and negative, you might remember the negative shoes more if you're bored waiting for the count to go positive again. The positive sections will speed up in your mind because you're excited, and when you later try to recall, you will think, "wow, I spent a lot of time waiting through those negative counts." The best way to combat this is to keep detailed records - write down exactly where each shoe was halfway through and at the end. And collect a lot of data - hundreds/thousands of shoes.