Long Run EV

matt21

Well-Known Member
#1
In working with EV should we always be looking forward only?

i.e. if we worked out a 95% confidence interval for 300 hours of play and are now 100 hours through it, then surely it would be wrong to keep the confidence intervals at the end of the 300 hours constant?

for example:
assume EV= 2 units/hour SD=30 units/hour
EV = 300x2 = 600 units SD = SQRT(300)*30 = 520
with having zero completed hours we have 68% confidence interval = 600-520, 600+520 = +80,+1120

but after 100 hours we are actually up 350 units

in this case should we calculate our confidence interval for the 300 hours as follows (GIVEN that we already have a result for the first 100 hours)
EV = 350 (actual win) + 200x2 = 750
SD = SQRT(200) *30 =424

Thus confidence interval for 300 hours (where first 100 is already completed) is
750-424, 750+424 = +326,+1174

This is in essence saying that past results do not impact on future results i.e. we cannot expect our 300-hour 68% confidence interval to stay constant if we already have results for a portion of the 300 hour session. Or in other words the EV for the next 100 hours will always be the same regardless whether we have had 5 consecutive winning 100-hour sessions or 5 consecutive losing 100-hour sessions.
Am I understanding this correctly?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#2
matt21 said:
Or in other words the EV for the next 100 hours will always be the same regardless whether we have had 5 consecutive winning 100-hour sessions or 5 consecutive losing 100-hour sessions.
I couldn't have said it better myself. :) People often get nervous after a big win or a series of wins because they think that a negative swing is "due". That is not the case. Maybe you got lucky in the past, but that money is part of your bankroll now. Enjoy it. The swings will come and go. Don’t worry about them because you cannot predict them. Just expect to earn your EV from this point forward and absorb the swings as they come.

-Sonny-
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#3
I was trying to describe the "due" up/downswing fallacy to my cousin. I described it by telling him to consider a fair coin. If we flipped it 20 times and happened to get 20 heads, the next one is still a 50/50 shot. In the long run (after 1 million flips or whatever), a difference of 20 is a minute fraction of our expectation of 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails. Yes, of this sample size, having all heads is a pretty big difference from expectation. But in the long run, its meaningless.
 

Pro21

Well-Known Member
#4
I have a team mate with an interesting outlook. We went to play a game, and got very lucky on the first day of play so decided to stop playing. Rather than be happy with the big win his attitude was, this was bad because we got in very few hours with a very high ev game. On another trip we started out losing and played 3 full days winning about half of what we won on the lucky trip. He considered this a much better trip since we got in many hours at our high ev game.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#5
Pro21 said:
On another trip we started out losing and played 3 full days winning about half of what we won on the lucky trip. He considered this a much better trip since we got in many hours at our high ev game.
I can relate to that. I am usually more concerned with playing time than the actual results of a trip. I always feel like a failure if I’m sitting around not able to find a game. Having a big profit in my pocket doesn’t ease the disappointment much. I get frustrated when I go on a trip and can’t get enough work to keep myself busy. Even if I win a lot at the beginning of a trip I still feel obligated to keep working. At the very least I’ll scout some new games for the next trip and stockpile some chips for future sessions. For me, the goal is to spend as much time playing/training as possible. Even if I’m not winning, at least I’m playing. Hopefully that game will still be there on my next trip so that I can have a chance to turn things around. And when that game finally burns out I want to have a few others lined up that I can play without too much downtime.

Then again, I’m not relying on my profit for my livelihood. If I was trying to live off of my profits then my goals (and mindset) might be quite different. A big win might be worth protecting if it could make a big difference in the quality of my life or my family’s life. And having a solid network of other players can remove a lot of the burden of scouting and prep work. Ah, the luxuries of a pro player. :grin:

-Sonny-
 

Pro21

Well-Known Member
#6
I was chatting with a player the other day, and I was saying the benefit of using an easier count - if you get to count one extra shoe per day because of using the easier count then you have more than made up for the difference a stronger count would have made. He was saying that he is back counting and that most shoes he doesn't get to place a bet. I told him that just counting that shoe is money in your pocket, even if you don't make a single bet. Just as your scouting is money in your pocket even if you don't make a single bet.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#7
matt21 said:
This is in essence saying that past results do not impact on future results i.e. we cannot expect our 300-hour 68% confidence interval to stay constant....
Well, we're probably saying the same thing but I'd say becasue the first thing you say above I think is true is also why I don't think the second thing you say is true lol.

I'd say the EV & 1SD range over 300 hours will always be the same regardless of past results. Or even current results. Or any future results of 300 hours of play.

Like in your example say the last 200 hours finished on the high end of 1SD.
Then when you say the results for 300 hours it makes it sound, maybe, that you'd think the 1174 is the high-end of 1SD for 300 hours.

When, in reality, if you finished with +1174 units after 300 hours all that means is your results for those 300 hours fall slightly outside the range of 1SD for 300 hours since 1120 is the high-end of 1SD after 300 hours.
 
#8
Life Extension?

Pro21 said:
I was chatting with a player the other day, and I was saying the benefit of using an easier count - if you get to count one extra shoe per day because of using the easier count then you have more than made up for the difference a stronger count would have made. He was saying that he is back counting and that most shoes he doesn't get to place a bet. I told him that just counting that shoe is money in your pocket, even if you don't make a single bet. Just as your scouting is money in your pocket even if you don't make a single bet.
If you use a simpler count why does that enable you to count one additional shoe? Does the simpler count extend your life? If so count me in!:joker::whip: Most of us are probalby limited by time wether you consider a trip, playing career or life itself. :joker::whip:
 
#9
Chasing the Long Run

Though we play for money it's probably best to consider hours played to the long run. We are like a leaf in a hurricane SD until we get to the long run. Then we can look back and we should be at about the EV.:joker::whip:
 
#11
NO Hands Please

Kasi said:
My pet peeve is consider phyical rounds played and screw the hours lol.
I know the number of hands but my final answer is in number of hours needed to play because I can more easily measure that over time.:joker::whip:

If I have a 20,000 NO I don't play for 100 hrs and think 10,000 hands to go. I play 100 hours and think 100 hours to go.:joker::whip:
but
either way is correct
I imagine if you want to keep track of SD along the way then
considering hands played would be needed:joker::whip:
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#12
blackjack avenger said:
I know the number of hands but my final answer is in number of hours needed to play because I can more easily measure that over time.:joker::whip:

If I have a 20,000 NO I don't play for 100 hrs and think 10,000 hands to go. I play 100 hours and think 100 hours to go.:joker::whip:
but
either way is correct
I imagine if you want to keep track of SD along the way then
considering hands played would be needed:joker::whip:
Sure, either way could be correct.

But if N0 is 20,000 hands, which is what I think it usually is expressed in?, if you are playing 100/hds/hr it represents 200 hours of playing time, if 80/hds/hr it represents more hours of playing time.

Whatever, I think it will always occur after a specific number of hands physically played no matter how many hours it may have taken you to play or "see" that many hands.

Are you implying if some goof-ball may actually want to keep track of SD at many points on the way to 200 hours of play, say he's such a goof-ball he actually would like to measure his results compared to SD each and every hour for 200 hours, he then would actually prefer to know the number of hands physically played vs number of hours played?

Especially, if say, he is back-counting while playing 80/hds/hr while playing 2 spots lol.
 
#13
Yes,

Kasi said:
Sure, either way could be correct.

But if N0 is 20,000 hands, which is what I think it usually is expressed in?, if you are playing 100/hds/hr it represents 200 hours of playing time, if 80/hds/hr it represents more hours of playing time.

Whatever, I think it will always occur after a specific number of hands physically played no matter how many hours it may have taken you to play or "see" that many hands.

Are you implying if some goof-ball may actually want to keep track of SD at many points on the way to 200 hours of play, say he's such a goof-ball he actually would like to measure his results compared to SD each and every hour for 200 hours, he then would actually prefer to know the number of hands physically played vs number of hours played?

Especially, if say, he is back-counting while playing 80/hds/hr while playing 2 spots lol.
Yes :joker::whip:
but maybe not so much a goof ball
 
Top