how common are high count ending losing shoes

ccl

Well-Known Member
#1
I was playing last night and had noticed the following happening quite often, start out playing a 6 deck show and over the first 3 or 4 hands the count rises fairly rapidly and stays going up fairly slowly after the first 3 or 4 hands. Last night we were about 4 hands (3 handed) into a show and the count got up to around +12 or +13 and stayed going up +1-2 per hand until it peaked around 20 and stayed there until the cut card came out with about 1.5 decks cut off. The dealer spread spread out the cards and pretty much most of the slug at the end being 10's/aces,

is this very common, i run into it 2-3 times each time i go out and play

ccl
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#2
very common unforetunately. When the low cards come out, you raise your bet, as the deck is now advantagous with more high cards remaining. However, it is really only advantagous if those high cards come out and the count heads back towards 0. If the shoe ends with the count still high, those remaining high cards did you no good. You actually just played through a negative shoe and more than likely lost money.
 

DonR

Well-Known Member
#3
I had a shoe like that today. Not very usual, for an 8D game, but the count was just going up and RC reached +26, with about 2 decks to go. The shoe ended with RC around +10, so we saw some high cards come out, but unfortunately for me, the table was full and I lost most of these hands, while the count was going up. Probably my best move was buying insurance, when I had a BJ. The dealer had it too, so I saved some of my money, but overall it wasn't a very nice experience. Not that you guys haven't seen it before :).

Having lost most of these very high counts, that are so rare in 8D games, in my short card counting career, I decided to try to do something new, for the first time - Wong in. I watched another table from the start, only 3 players there, and after about 2 decks, TC went to +2. In the meantime, they were mostly losing, so I "offered to help and try to change the Sacred Flow". Luckily, it turned out to be the best shoe of the day for me. Won 18 units, and turned a -15 units session, into a +3 units session, instead. Not a very big deal, but I felt good.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#4
kewljason said:
very common unforetunately. When the low cards come out, you raise your bet, as the deck is now advantagous with more high cards remaining. However, it is really only advantagous if those high cards come out and the count heads back towards 0. If the shoe ends with the count still high, those remaining high cards did you no good. You actually just played through a negative shoe and more than likely lost money.
Very sensible and my thoughts exactly. When I posted a similar query around not ramping up bets where there is a high count, but only one round of cards left before the cut card (so the liklihood is the high cards are behind it), the consensus of those who responded was to bet to the count as usual as it all averages out in the end. I'm still not convinced - why raise the bet when it's probable you don't have an advantage?
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#5
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
very common unforetunately. When the low cards come out, you raise your bet, as the deck is now advantagous with more high cards remaining. However, it is really only advantagous if those high cards come out and the count heads back towards 0. If the shoe ends with the count still high, those remaining high cards did you no good. You actually just played through a negative shoe and more than likely lost money.
actually you are at an advantage regardless if the high cards come out or not or even if the true count continues to rise. consider that you could get a snapper while the dealer and other players draw a bunch of low cards. or maybe you get low cards and the other players do as well but the dealer has a snapper and you took insurance, or you drew low cards giving you a ten against a dealer low card or lots of other scenerio's where you may double or split and then double, what ever. still you have the advantage. don't always win but the ev is there.
newb99 said:
Very sensible and my thoughts exactly. When I posted a similar query around not ramping up bets where there is a high count, but only one round of cards left before the cut card (so the liklihood is the high cards are behind it), the consensus of those who responded was to bet to the count as usual as it all averages out in the end. I'm still not convinced - why raise the bet when it's probable you don't have an advantage?
doesn't matter, it's also very probable for that one round that high cards will come out in that round, but additionally if they don't all is still not lost as you may get something like a hard 11, hard 10 or hard 9 composed of small cards against a dealer what ever up card where you can double down at an advantage. in the case of the dealer up card if it's a low card in the midst of such a high count the dealer will be more likely to bust than normal. so low cards continuing to come out isn't necessarily bad for the advantage you have, especially when the rate at which they are likely to come out is lower than normal.
see the really thing that matters, that gives you the advantage is that you are more likely to get a snapper, a successful double down, a successful split that maybe turns into a successful double down or a successful insurance bet. and maybe the dealer will bust more often a well.
 
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johndoe

Well-Known Member
#6
newb99 said:
When I posted a similar query around not ramping up bets where there is a high count, but only one round of cards left before the cut card (so the liklihood is the high cards are behind it), the consensus of those who responded was to bet to the count as usual as it all averages out in the end. I'm still not convinced - why raise the bet when it's probable you don't have an advantage?
That still eating at you? :)

You *do* have the advantage. You have no idea if those high cards will appear or not, but absent that information, you *are* sure that they are *more likely to come out*. That's where your advantage comes from.

Sure, if they don't come out, you don't get to use your advantage, and you (probably) happen to lose. That's why your advantage is only a couple of percent, and far from a sure thing. But it's enough to justify big bets.
 

ccl

Well-Known Member
#7
i have had this happen 2-3 times each time i played and i ended up not having the money to finish out the shoe most of the times due to raising my bet adn the dealer pulling like a 6 and 5 then a 6 when the table all stands on low hands, etc... those shoes tend to kill me

ccl
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#8
newb99 said:
When I posted a similar query around not ramping up bets where there is a high count, but only one round of cards left before the cut card (so the liklihood is the high cards are behind it), the consensus of those who responded was to bet to the count as usual as it all averages out in the end. I'm still not convinced - why raise the bet when it's probable you don't have an advantage?
Because the rewards when you do have the advantage outweigh the penalties when you don't have the advantage.

Let's play a simple game: there are 3 cards, an ace, a 2, and a 3. Draw one card: if it's the ace, you win $10; draw a 2 or 3 and lose $0.50. Although the probability is against you drawing the ace, the EV of playing this game is high.

Now return to blackjack. Even at the highest counts, there are more neutral and low cards than high cards. The probability of you drawing blackjack or 20 is low - but the rewards are very high. Even though it's unlikely that you'll pull two high cards, it's still very advantageous to increase your bet.
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#9
Pen, Pen, and more Pen

This can happen in any blackjack game. We are looking at likelyhoods and not certainties in our play. More likely to get a blackjack, you raise your bet, etc.
The better the pen, though this will still happen, the less likely it will happen as often.

ihate17
 

ccl

Well-Known Member
#10
i was just curious because its started happening more and more lately and really making re evaluate the way i start raising bets and when i start. i really started and had my gf start really raising at +15 and im glad i waited that long because it was a shoe i won 3 hands total in it, between me and her we were under 1/2 dozen winning hands with a count ending around +15 and going as high as +20, kind of frustrating. Was on the MS coast here

ccl
 
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