Possible Betting Stratgies

[RavenSlay3r]

These are some basic strategies I've come up with in relation to the 'True Count'. I have no idea how they compare to each other but would be interested in everyones comments. When I write my simulator, I'll be sure to test them all.

Hosted - offsite because I needed to make a table...
http://www.geocities.com/ravenslay3r...trategies.html

btw. this is in no way a reflection on my real web-design talents. This is just quick and dirty.

Thanks,
Raven

[hiimdoug]

The most efficient betting strategy is the “Kelly Criterion”. This principle allows you to bet in proportion to your advantage over the house, the idea is to maximize your potential gains while minimizing the risk. The Kelly Criterion suggests that you bet 76% (this is because of the variance of any given hand) of the current advantage you have over the house. Accordingly, if the True Count is at 2 then the player has a .5% advantage over the house. Your optimum bet in that situation would be .38% of your bankroll. If you had a $10,000 bankroll and the True Count was at 2, the optimum bet would be $38.

.0038 * $10,000 = $38

or

Optimum Bet * Bank Roll = Bet

It takes a True Count of 1 for a player to have an even advantage with the house. When the True Count rises 1, the percentage advantage the player has over the house rises .5%. Thus, when you have a True Count of 2, the advantage the player has over the house is .5%, when the True Count is 3; the player has a 1% advantage over the house and so on…

So the final equation to figure out your most optimized bet is:

CA * .76% = OB%
OB% * BR = FB

CA = Current Advantage, or the percentage advantage you have over the house based on the current True Count.

OB% = Optimum Bet Percentage. (Notice: If you have a 1% advantage and you multiply that by .76 you’ll get .76%. When you put that back into the second equation you must turn that into a decimal number which would be .0076.)

BR = Your total bankroll.

FB = Final Bet.

We’re assuming our bankroll is $10,000 in this example. Now, let’s say the True Count is at 7, at this point your advantage over the house is 3%. Multiply 3% by .76% which would give you 2.8% (3 * .76 = 2.8). Now convert that into a decimal number, .028, and multiply it by your total bankroll, $10,000. .028 * $10,000 = $280.

Obviously betting fractions of a dollar is not a practical idea. So, before you go to a casino make sure you figure out your betting spread. Along with that keep the idea of camouflage in mind. Use parlaying wherever possible.

I hope this helps you out a little.