No winners ever?

[titan2782]

I've been a roulette player for the longest. My latest and greatest moment has was taking $50 and opening an account with an online casino and turning it into $3000 in 2 days. On the 3rd day however, I lost $1500. Both of these actions were done using a version of the martingale system that I came up with.

Recently I wanted to start black jack to see if I could do any better and start earning some extra weekend cash. I studied the basic strategy guide and for the most part have it memorized. But I feel that I need more. I started looking for a betting strategy to go along with the basic strategy guide. Most of what I found were people (mathmaticians, etc) who just discuss how the betting systems are flawed and can never work.

I agree with the math, yes. However, there has to be a way that a player can come out ahead more often than not. I knew two people who for a period of a year or two, made their living playing blackjack. I'm not in contact with them any longer so I cant ask them what the secret is, but it has to be something. These guys were not the brightest but they pulled it off.

So what is the approach to this favourous outcome? A lot of articles and books suggest money management, stop loss, etc and I agree with those as well since it's mostly self control. I saved my ass many times on the wheel by limiting what I was going to lose. Instead of losing $4k (which I didnt have) I only lost $200 or so.

The reason I like the wheel so much is that I play the 2:1 bets ith my modified martingale system and you can easily and quickly build your bank roll. But as the critics all say, the systems all have flaws and the losses are devistating. So what can be done in blackjack?

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by titan2782

I agree with the math, yes. However, there has to be a way that a player can come out ahead more often than not.

That is exactly what a progression system does. If you use a negative progression system like the Martingale you will win the majority of your sessions. Unfortunately, as you noticed, your occasional losses will be very big and wipe out all of your profit. That is because progression systems only redistribute the winning sessions, they don’t overcome the house edge. You will still lose at the same rate because the house edge is still the same. In fact, you will often lose much more money because your are raising your bets so often and betting larger amounts of money. When you bet more money against the house edge, you lose more money. Things like stop-loss limits, stop-win limits and other bankroll management schemes do not change things much. The house edge is still there but you will be waling away from the table more often, which will help you to lose less money by playing less hands.

You can read through the Welcome thread at the top of this forum for more information on the limits of progression systems. You can also search this website for phrases like "stop loss" and "progression" to read discussions about those systems.

-Sonny-

[titan2782]

Thanks for the reply, but i've gone over those already.

My question is, how can players make a living at BJ? Is it self control, luck, skill or a system?

Another question I had is, where does the house get it's advantage in BJ? Let's say that you played perfect BJ, the dealer has to follow his guidelines hit on 16 and stand on 17, how does the house have the advantage? Mathimatically speaking I mean. The dealer has the same restrictions on him as you do. I can see in roulette how the house has the advantage over the 1:1 bets because of the 0 and 00.

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by titan2782

Thanks for the reply, but i've gone over those already.

My question is, how can players make a living at BJ? Is it self control, luck, skill or a system?

Another question I had is, where does the house get it's advantage in BJ? Let's say that you played perfect BJ, the dealer has to follow his guidelines hit on 16 and stand on 17, how does the house have the advantage? Mathimatically speaking I mean. The dealer has the same restrictions on him as you do. I can see in roulette how the house has the advantage over the 1:1 bets because of the 0 and 00.

The reason the house has an advantage in blackjack even though you get paid 3/2 on a blackjack is the rule that by far is often forgotten but is the most important.
Rule #1 If the dealer busts but you bust first, you LOSE!!!

Your other question:
How can one make a living playing blackjack?
A few do and many supliment their income playing blackjack and none of these people do it by playing a progression, and luck (positive variance) does not last.
You make your money playing blackjack through advantage player methods such as cardcounting, shuffle tracking or hole carding.

ihate17

[titan2782]

thank you for that response. That makes sense to me. So card counting still works even with 8 or more decks? I worked in a casino for about a year and I had a lot of dealer friends. I was told that they change the number of decks used randomly through out the day and no one knows (dealers and players at least) how many are in play.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by titan2782

So card counting still works even with 8 or more decks?.

Sure. It works with any number of decks.

Originally Posted by titan2782

I was told that they change the number of decks used randomly through out the day and no one knows (dealers and players at least) how many are in play.

As long as the cards are in view of the players then it isn’t difficult to tell how many decks are in use. It sounds like that particular casino is using a continuous shuffler machine that has the cards hidden inside and shuffles them after every round of play. If that is the case then you can’t count the cards in that game.

-Sonny-

[titan2782]

i'm not an expert on statistics but it seems unreasonable that things can not be modified. Reading more and more articles, people proving the house always wins, I can see how that would be mathematically true. But what is the scope of that advantage? What if you used a technique like in trading stocks where you cost average. Simply play x number of hands each day, maybe at different hours even. Where does the scope end? Does the scope start and stop when you sit down and then leave or does it start at your first hand and end at your last hand 2 years later? Hopefully this question makes sense. From what i've seen, the scope has to be per session over x number of hands.

Maybe i'm a fool and i'm blinded by my "victory" at the wheel?

Thanks for humoring me.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by titan2782

What if you used a technique like in trading stocks where you cost average.

You would be virtually assured of losing money. Cost averaging work for you in the stock market because the stock market goes up in the long run. Cost averaging would work against you in gambling for the exact same reason - your bankroll goes down in the long run.

No matter what progression system you use, you're always gambling on winning short-term even though your long-term average will be negative.

[Cardcounter]

The problem is not with betting it is with the game. If you are playing a negative expectation game you will ultimately lose. However there are 3 ways to beat roulette find a basied wheel and figure out which number it baised towards and bet on that number, use matchplays or coupons that double your payout and bet on red, black, odd, or even, or use promotional chips that you got for a good deal and bet on numbers.

[fredperson]

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. And yes, there is a progressive betting system that works. Elsewhere in this forum I described my experience with developing and playing such a system for over 20 years with dramatic results.

However, anyone who posts that a non-counting system can work will be immediately attacked by all the "AP" players here who "know" better. They are convinced that they, and they alone, can beat casino blackjack.

My message is don't give up. It can be done.