Do you have more tolerance for negative counts in a deep pen game?

[21forme]

I'm playing at one of my usual haunts where there are 6D (NMS) games usually with 1.5-2 decks cut off. I find a dealer cutting off just under a deck consistently. I start playing there and the count is tanking. I do the usual tricks to wong out, but shoe after shoe continues to go negative. Since the cards are deeply cut, would you hang around longer to see if it turns around? I typically wong out at -1 to -1.5 at 2 decks. Your thoughts appreciated.

[callipygian]

There may be a mathematical answer to this, but basically you're weighing the EV of a negative-count, deep penetration shoe vs. the EV of a zero-count, shallow penetration shoe.

My intuition is that if the decks played (from the beginning of the shoe) is greater than the difference in penetration (in decks), you're better off Wonging out. Returning to the deeper penetration game will work exactly the opposite: as soon as the deeper penetration table shuffles, you'll be justified in hopping back unless there's a good positive count at your table.

[moo321]

If all the games are deeply dealt, just move to one that's being shuffled. Claim you don't like how it's going. If there's only one dealer, and there's a big difference in pen, you might wanna stick around.

[sagefr0g]

deeper the pen the more i'd be inclined to hang in there depending on how bad the count tanks.
but heck for real i mainly play all anyway. life in the big city such as it is

[rukus]

Originally Posted by 21forme

I'm playing at one of my usual haunts where there are 6D (NMS) games usually with 1.5-2 decks cut off. I find a dealer cutting off just under a deck consistently. I start playing there and the count is tanking. I do the usual tricks to wong out, but shoe after shoe continues to go negative. Since the cards are deeply cut, would you hang around longer to see if it turns around? I typically wong out at -1 to -1.5 at 2 decks. Your thoughts appreciated.

no i would not stick around playing those negative counts, ESPECIALLY if it's already far into the shoe. the common wisdom goes something like "even if the count does recover, it wont recover high enough, often enough to become very profitable". so you may stick around playing -1, -2, -3 counts just for the chance at playing a +1 or +2 for a hand or two or three? doesnt make sense to me. this is especially true towards the end of a shoe. wong out, go make a phone call, hit the bathroom, take a smoke break. do anything but play tanking counts..

[21forme]

Originally Posted by moo321

If all the games are deeply dealt, just move to one that's being shuffled. Claim you don't like how it's going. If there's only one dealer, and there's a big difference in pen, you might wanna stick around.

Every time I wonged out, I had the dealer hold the spot for me, and I'd come back for the next shuffle. I rareely do play-all in 6 and 8D shoes. If backcounting, I WI at +1. If wonging in, or playing a shoe from the shuffle, I WO at -1 to -1.5. What I'd like to get opinions on is this - say after 2D, the count is -1.5. Does this shoe, being played deeper than most, have potnetial to turn to a worthwhile advantage, or once those high cards are gone in the first few decks, it's unlikely to turn positive?

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by 21forme

Every time I wonged out, I had the dealer hold the spot for me, and I'd come back for the next shuffle. I rareely do play-all in 6 and 8D shoes. If backcounting, I WI at +1. If wonging in, or playing a shoe from the shuffle, I WO at -1 to -1.5. What I'd like to get opinions on is this - say after 2D, the count is -1.5. Does this shoe, being played deeper than most, have potnetial to turn to a worthwhile advantage, or once those high cards are gone in the first few decks, it's unlikely to turn positive?

have you seen this from the 'good ole book' ?
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration3.htm

been my weekend warrior experience the counts sometimes turn pretty good with decent pen.