But doesnt the dealer have the same chance?

[yeaaa]

I just started reading about card counting using the hi-lo system and something puzzled me. It said that when the TC is +1 or higher, the player has an advantage because he/she will have a better chance at hitting blackjack or getting 20, ect... But doesnt the dealer the have equal chance as the player?

[ihate17]

When a dealer gets a blackjack the house wins 1/1, but you get 3/2. There are also those double, split and double after split opportunities that dealers never get. In the case of a high count you will win a larger percentage of these type of hands compared to a neutral or negative count. Finally, though the dealer will bust less often overall, the dealer will bust more often when showing a stiff.

So, you are correct that the good cards can hit the dealer as easily as hit yourself, but the blackjack bonus and the ability to double and split give you an edge in a positive count.

ihate17

[callipygian]

Your advantage at high counts is a very complex thing.

Your overall advantage is the sum of:

- The probability a certain hand will show up.
- The probabilities of outcomes of your choices (hit, stand, double, split).
- The value of the outcomes.

Changing the count will actually affect all three, and sometimes in opposite directions. For instance, at high counts, hard 11's are actually less likely, since they're formed with two small cards. But the chances of doubling to 21 goes up, and the value of a 21 also goes up. Likewise, the probability of getting a soft hand goes up, but the value of soft doubles actually decrease.

Most of your value comes from the fact that blackjacks are more likely at high counts and you get paid 3:2 for them; hard hands (excluding 10-10)increase slightly in value (mostly from player 12-16 vs. dealer 2-6); soft hands actually decrease in value; and paired hands increase greatly in value (mostly from 10-10 being more likely).