Counting Question

[Expedia]

Hi, I'm relatively new to counting and planning to use KO system for now.

I'm going to a casino next week for my first try and I have some questions.

The rules for this casino are 8 decks, S17, DOA, DAS, only 1 card after

splitting ace, and about 75~80% pen.

I'm planning to play on $10 minimum table with $250~350 BR.

Also, i'm not going to wonging since it's my first time counting in real casino.

Will I have a chance at breaking even (at least) with those rules and

without wonging? And what will be the good betting spread with my small BR?

Thanks.

[21forme]

Your BR is insufficient. Keep practicing and wait until you have about 1K to bring with you.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Expedia

Hi, I'm relatively new to counting and planning to use KO system for now.

I'm going to a casino next week for my first try and I have some questions.

The rules for this casino are 8 decks, S17, DOA, DAS, only 1 card after

splitting ace, and about 75~80% pen.

I'm planning to play on $10 minimum table with $250~350 BR.

Also, i'm not going to wonging since it's my first time counting in real casino.

Will I have a chance at breaking even (at least) with those rules and

without wonging? And what will be the good betting spread with my small BR?

Thanks.

just guessing. i'd say you have if you played say 200 hands about a 90% confidence level of losing it all or maybe winning i dunno $100.00 or so maybe more, maybe less. that's with say a 1 to 8 spread. betting 1unit at negative counts and 8 units at positive.
just guessing. lol.
i'm not suggesting that spread or ramp. and i just use hi/lo anyway so i'm just guessing. i figure you could lose the $250 or $300 real easy and real quick.
would be nice if you could find a $5 table. still could lose it all pretty easy and quick then too lol. you might get lucky and win. i think with that sized life bank your ror is pretty close to 100% for a lifetime of play lol.
bottom line i don't know what to tell you.

[Canceler]

Expedia -

Yes, the chance of losing 25-35 units is extremely high, no matter what you do. But you want to try this out at the casino. I say go for it. A little experience won’t hurt.

Maybe you won’t be able to keep the count at all in the casino environment. Start by counting tables you’re not playing at. If that goes okay, try playing. Flat-bet the $10 minimum. If you’re confident you’ve got the count right, and the shoe is clearly favorable (like 0 or higher), maybe edge your bet up to $15 or $20, just to see what happens.

As 21forme suggested, to play seriously, bringing $1000 along would not be unreasonable. But this is just a gaining-experience, getting-your-feet-wet run. To avoid an unpleasant surprise, keep my first sentence in mind. (Losing all your money would be unpleasant, but at least you won’t be surprised!)

[EasyRhino]

I'll go with a modified version of canceler's advice.

Wong in. you have no choice. Even just flat betting $10 you can win or lose $100 very quickly, and $200 slighly less quickly. Start raising your bets at all, and it's suicide.

Spend some time backcounting tables. make sure you're comfortable keeping a count when you don't have to worry about playing or betting.

If that goes well, then backcount a table. If the count gets good (you're using KO, so call it a few PAST your key count), then jump in. Flat bet $20. If you dip below the key count, don't play.

If that goes well, then you can get fancy with a bet spread. At or maybe 1 below the key count, $10, a few higher, $20, and higher than that, $30. But again, in any negative count, don't play.

[bj bob]

With the BR and table mins. you have desrcibed, I would propose the following:
Since you probably have only about 25 bets available and a rather mediocre pen.,I would be choosy here. If the table allows MSE I would wait until the shoe reached the Key Count and then sit down and play. At least this way you're getting some real live counting practice while risking none of your money. At that point your can raise your bets if the count rises from there while not sacrificing your limited BR to a negative count.
As the boys here have already stated, don't be surprised if you get wiped out, but at least this will give you the best opportunity at a fighting chance. Good luck!

[bj bob]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

I'll go with a modified version of canceler's advice.

Wong in. you have no choice. Even just flat betting $10 you can win or lose $100 very quickly, and $200 slighly less quickly. Start raising your bets at all, and it's suicide.

Spend some time backcounting tables. make sure you're comfortable keeping a count when you don't have to worry about playing or betting.

If that goes well, then backcount a table. If the count gets good (you're using KO, so call it a few PAST your key count), then jump in. Flat bet $20. If you dip below the key count, don't play.

If that goes well, then you can get fancy with a bet spread. At or maybe 1 below the key count, $10, a few higher, $20, and higher than that, $30. But again, in any negative count, don't play.

Two simultaneous posts saying basically the same thing. Now that's scary!
It seems that Brother Easy and I are exactly the same page. I'm now heading straight to my bedroom, turning out the lights and crawling under the bed.