Math Help

[White Guy]

I was hoping someone can help me with some calculations if he/she doesn't mind and likes doing that sort of thing. I am still on a mission to train some friends for my "team" and they are having trouble getting the bankroll concept. Mainly thinking they could invest a few grand and go crazy and make a big profit like Cruise in Rainman. Could someone calcute the ROR betting with a spread of $25-$400 on a 6 deck standard rules game? Can you show the difference of ROR in 10kBR 20kBR 30kBR and 40kBR. Any bet of $50 or more will be two hands because a couple of the casinos only allow $200 max and would rather play two hands more than just in max bet situations for camo's sake.
Thanks

[rukus]

Originally Posted by White Guy

I was hoping someone can help me with some calculations if he/she doesn't mind and likes doing that sort of thing. I am still on a mission to train some friends for my "team" and they are having trouble getting the bankroll concept. Mainly thinking they could invest a few grand and go crazy and make a big profit like Cruise in Rainman. Could someone calcute the ROR betting with a spread of $25-$400 on a 6 deck standard rules game? Can you show the difference of ROR in 10kBR 20kBR 30kBR and 40kBR. Any bet of $50 or more will be two hands because a couple of the casinos only allow $200 max and would rather play two hands more than just in max bet situations for camo's sake.
Thanks

what do you consider a "standard" 6 deck game? what does your bet ramp look like? are you wonging in/out or playing all?

if you cannot calculate this yourself, you shouldnt be training anyone for your "team". i suggest spending time with either 1. a good sim and excel or more simply, the FREE online calculators at www.qfit.com.

i suggested these rather than give the numerical answers because either of those suggestions will be infinitely more instructive to you and your "teammates" than just getting 4 ROR numbers from someone on this board. if you try and come up with the answers yourself and have problems doing so, let us know and we can work through it together (or someone can just give you the answer, which wont help you very much as you won't understand what goes into getting those numbers).

[mjbballar23]

As was stated above..if you dont understand the math of the game yourself you shouldnt be getting a team together to risk any significant amount of money. But by all means go ahead and post some more specifics on your game and im sure I or someone else on the boards can help answer your questions.

[White Guy]

Of course I understand the math it is just not a formula I keep in memory. My BR is always replinishable and I don't count cards for a living. I make a good living at my day job. Thanks for the free sim link that is exactly what I was hoping for.

[InPlay]

Originally Posted by White Guy

Of course I understand the math it is just not a formula I keep in memory. My BR is always replinishable and I don't count cards for a living. I make a good living at my day job. Thanks for the free sim link that is exactly what I was hoping for.

2+2 = 5 works all the time!

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by White Guy

Thanks for the free sim link that is exactly what I was hoping for.

A simple formula will also suffice for what you're looking for. You're looking to convince your friends, not to write a grant proposal on your chances of success.

There are two ROR's (see Edit #2 at the bottom) that are easy to calculate: a 17% ROR (bust out at -1 SD), and a 2.5% ROR (bust out at -2 SD), using BR = bankroll in units, h = hands, EV = expected value per hand, and SD = standard deviation. Use an estimation of 2.5*sqrt(h) < SD < 3*sqrt(h) and solve for BR.

BR + h*EV - n*SD = 0, where n = 1 (for 16% ROR) or 2 (for 2.5% ROR)
BR = k*sqrt(h) - h*EV, where 2.5*n < k < 3*n

This is a downward-facing parabola; at some point with increasing hands, your EV will overcome the variance; your bankroll required will actually decrease if you play enough hands. The lifetime ROR can be calculated from this maximum value of BR.

d(BR)/dh = 0.5*k/sqrt(h) - EV = 0
h(max) = (0.5*k/EV)^2
BR(max) = 0.5*k^2/EV - 0.25*k^2/EV = 0.25*k^2/EV

Calculating your precise SD and EV is your job; I'll post a range of k's and EV's and it will demonstrate how large of a bankroll is needed. Keep in mind that the bankroll numbers are in minimum units; if you're betting $25-$400, your unit is $25.

17% Lifetime ROR

EV -->	0.005	0.01	0.015	0.02
k				
2	200	100	67	50
2.5	313	156	104	78
3	450	225	150	113
3.5	613	306	204	153

2.5% Lifetime ROR

EV -->	0.005	0.01	0.015	0.02
k				
4	800	400	267	200
5	1250	625	417	313
6	1800	900	600	450
7	2450	1225	817	613

Edit #1: It's pretty clear to see that small bankrolls are required for high-EV, low-variance systems; unfortunately, most of the time, raising your EV will also raise your variance, so be careful: EV and k are not entirely independent variables.

Edit #2: Should have looked on Wikipedia first - correlations of sigma (n in my calculations above) to percentages are listed, so you can calculate a lot more than the two that I listed. And my numbers are a bit off.

16.8% ROR: use n = 1.000
10% ROR: use n = 1.282
5% ROR: use n = 1.645
2.5% ROR: use n = 1.960
1% ROR: use n = 2.326
0.5% ROR: use n = 2.576

[White Guy]

Thanks. That is definately good info. That will help I am sure but if not I can always just try to confuse them so they don't ask any more questions and just shut up and play.. haha..

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by White Guy

I can always just try to confuse them so they don't ask any more questions and just shut up and play.. haha..

If you don't mind some unsolicited advice, read on.

The success of your team, ultimately, is going to hinge on every single person being fully on board. You've already listed a warning sign - that they think an investment of a few grand is going to lead to millions. What's going to happen when (not if) you have your first major downswing? Are they going to get discouraged and quit? Take huge risks to win it back?

Worse yet, what's going to happen when (not if) you have your first major upswing? Are they going to run out and blow it on hookers and new cars in anticipation of the millions they are about to make?

Either one is going to spell disaster for your team.

My advice is to really make sure they're ready to be counting. The direction of pestering should run in the other direction - they should be pestering you to allow them to play on the team, not you pestering them to play. If they haven't counted cards on their own and independently realized how awesome it would be to play with a team, they really don't belong on a team.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by White Guy

Can you show the difference of ROR in 10kBR 20kBR 30kBR and 40kBR.Thanks

All I know is doubling one's $roll will make one's new ROR equal to originalROR^2 since you now have twice as many units in roll, if that's of any help lol.

[White Guy]

Originally Posted by callipygian

If you don't mind some unsolicited advice, read on.

The success of your team, ultimately, is going to hinge on every single person being fully on board. You've already listed a warning sign - that they think an investment of a few grand is going to lead to millions. What's going to happen when (not if) you have your first major downswing? Are they going to get discouraged and quit? Take huge risks to win it back?

Worse yet, what's going to happen when (not if) you have your first major upswing? Are they going to run out and blow it on hookers and new cars in anticipation of the millions they are about to make?

Either one is going to spell disaster for your team.

My advice is to really make sure they're ready to be counting. The direction of pestering should run in the other direction - they should be pestering you to allow them to play on the team, not you pestering them to play. If they haven't counted cards on their own and independently realized how awesome it would be to play with a team, they really don't belong on a team.

Very true. Haven't actually played cards at a casino with any of them yet for that reason. I basically give them the info tell them a little and than if I don't hear from them about their progress I forget it. I have done that with at least 5 friends/family members who showed potential initially. Most likely I will be playing rogue style for a while. I am just frustrated I don't know any "smarter" people.. haha

Originally Posted by Kasi

All I know is doubling one's $roll will make one's new ROR equal to originalROR^2 since you now have twice as many units in roll, if that's of any help lol.

Haha thats a good formula to keep on hand.