A test of wonging knowledge.

[cardcounter0]

From another bj message board:

The newbie had a question about wonging in with 6 or 7 players already at the table.

"Am I correct in thinking that with fewer players, a positive count may last longer? Is this the reason for wanting fewer players at the table? I know that fewer players mean more hands per hour, but with Wonging in at +2 and out when the true drops below +0.5 means one will not be playing a lot to begin with."

A newbie wonger had some questions when I saw this statement. Now wonging in at +2 and staying until a 0 count is probably a good strategy, that is not the problem. But can you spot the fallacy that he is operating under? Spot the flaw in the thinking? Maybe someone here is falling into the same trap.

I will give my view if some people would like to speculate and hopefully give the correct answer.

[moo321]

Let's see. It's not whether the count will last longer, but what percentage of the good count you will capture?

[InPlay]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

From another bj message board:

The newbie had a question about wonging in with 6 or 7 players already at the table.

"Am I correct in thinking that with fewer players, a positive count may last longer? Is this the reason for wanting fewer players at the table? I know that fewer players mean more hands per hour, but with Wonging in at +2 and out when the true drops below +0.5 means one will not be playing a lot to begin with."

A newbie wonger had some questions when I saw this statement. Now wonging in at +2 and staying until a 0 count is probably a good strategy, that is not the problem. But can you spot the fallacy that he is operating under? Spot the flaw in the thinking? Maybe someone here is falling into the same trap.

I will give my view if some people would like to speculate and hopefully give the correct answer.

How would you wong with 6 or 7 players at the table ? I have never seen more then 7 spots at a table. Maybe he was at a Chinese resturant and thinking of ordering won ton soup! Simple mistake ! Only way he plays if he gives the money to a player at the table and he places the bet with his money. Then that opens up a whole new set of problems which are not worth the trouble of won ton soup !

[InPlay]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

From another bj message board:

The newbie had a question about wonging in with 6 or 7 players already at the table.

"Am I correct in thinking that with fewer players, a positive count may last longer? Is this the reason for wanting fewer players at the table? I know that fewer players mean more hands per hour, but with Wonging in at +2 and out when the true drops below +0.5 means one will not be playing a lot to begin with."

A newbie wonger had some questions when I saw this statement. Now wonging in at +2 and staying until a 0 count is probably a good strategy, that is not the problem. But can you spot the fallacy that he is operating under? Spot the flaw in the thinking? Maybe someone here is falling into the same trap.

I will give my view if some people would like to speculate and hopefully give the correct answer.

Link

http://www.bj21.com/boards/free/free...gi?read=157295

[ricopuno]

How would you wong with 6 or 7 players at the table ? I have never seen more then 7 spots at a table. Maybe he was at a Chinese resturant and thinking of ordering won ton soup! Simple mistake ! Only way he plays if he gives the money to a player at the table and he places the bet with his money. Then that opens up a whole new set of problems which are not worth the trouble of won ton soup !

What I have been doing is ask the permission of other players who are currently playing if I can bet with them.

[cardcounter0]

Am I correct in thinking that with fewer players, a positive count may last longer?

Okay, here is the fallacy that I see. Why do you want a positive count to last a long time?

Understand that a positive count indicates a lot of high cards left in the deck, and when the high cards come out, that is a good thing. A positive count lasting a long time means that the extra high cards have not come out. You are betting big, and not getting the advantage.

Backcount a shoe, the count immediately goes sky-high positive, you jump in and play the entire shoe, and the cut-card comes out with the count still sky-high. There. The ultimate shoe. You played the maximum number of hands with a real high count. Made a bunch of big bets. What did you get? Nothing. The big cards never came out, the count stayed high and never went down. You might as well have played a bunch of hands and bet all that money with a 0 count that stayed at 0.

You do not make money with a positive count that stays positive. You make money when the count DROPS. That means the big cards (that make your blackjacks, or your double downs, or bust the dealer) have been dealt.

The best thing that can happen in a wonging situation is to enter at the high positive count, AND THE COUNT IMMEDIATELY STARTS GOING SOUTH. Hopefully, it goes negative before the current round is over and you are gone in a hand or two. That is when you make money.

In fact, playing in a negative count and the count going even more negative is just as good as a positive count going neutral (you just won't have big bets out there to take advantage in the negative count situation) unless you have some "inside" information.

[Bojack1]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

Am I correct in thinking that with fewer players, a positive count may last longer?

Okay, here is the fallacy that I see. Why do you want a positive count to last a long time?

Understand that a positive count indicates a lot of high cards left in the deck, and when the high cards come out, that is a good thing. A positive count lasting a long time means that the extra high cards have not come out. You are betting big, and not getting the advantage.

Backcount a shoe, the count immediately goes sky-high positive, you jump in and play the entire shoe, and the cut-card comes out with the count still sky-high. There. The ultimate shoe. You played the maximum number of hands with a real high count. Made a bunch of big bets. What did you get? Nothing. The big cards never came out, the count stayed high and never went down. You might as well have played a bunch of hands and bet all that money with a 0 count that stayed at 0.

You do not make money with a positive count that stays positive. You make money when the count DROPS. That means the big cards (that make your blackjacks, or your double downs, or bust the dealer) have been dealt.

The best thing that can happen in a wonging situation is to enter at the high positive count, AND THE COUNT IMMEDIATELY STARTS GOING SOUTH. Hopefully, it goes negative before the current round is over and you are gone in a hand or two. That is when you make money.

In fact, playing in a negative count and the count going even more negative is just as good as a positive count going neutral (you just won't have big bets out there to take advantage in the negative count situation) unless you have some "inside" information.

Everything you say here makes sense. However, with fewer players it will take longer for a count to drop, if in fact it is dropping, in turn giving you more opportunities to make the multi unit bets as the count goes south. Instead of taking advantage of a dropping count with only 2 rounds with a full table, playing with less players at the table allows the chance to ride the drop with more money in play due to increased rounds. Also to note, as the count drops so does the number of cards in play which may give you the chance to keep the large bets out there even as the count goes down. Not always a given that the drop will move in such a proportion, but a chance just the same. So basically I would say its not a long lasting positive count to be looking for, its a long lasting drop, which is usually more profitable if its due to less players playing instead of fairly even numbers of low to high cards coming out.

[rukus]

Originally Posted by Bojack1

Everything you say here makes sense. However, with fewer players it will take longer for a count to drop, if in fact it is dropping, in turn giving you more opportunities to make the multi unit bets as the count goes south. Instead of taking advantage of a dropping count with only 2 rounds with a full table, playing with less players at the table allows the chance to ride the drop with more money in play due to increased rounds. Also to note, as the count drops so does the number of cards in play which may give you the chance to keep the large bets out there even as the count goes down.

let me add, take a look at the true count theorem (link below). even as big cards come out and drop the running count, your true count is on average expected to remain unchanged over a round. the less people at the table, the more of these +EV/TC rounds you can get in before the cut card comes out, as bojack already mentioned.

True Count Theorem

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Bojack1

Instead of taking advantage of a dropping count with only 2 rounds with a full table, playing with less players at the table allows the chance to ride the drop with more money in play due to increased rounds.

Exactly. Playing with fewer players is better because you will get more rounds before the shuffle. In that sense the high counts will last longer and be more profitable. The count is still falling at the same but the player is able to take advantage of more opportunities. Also you will be playing fewer hands (per hour) off the top of the shoe.

-Sonny-

[cardcounter0]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Exactly. Playing with fewer players is better because you will get more rounds before the shuffle. In that sense the high counts will last longer and be more profitable. The count is still falling at the same but the player is able to take advantage of more opportunities. Also you will be playing fewer hands (per hour) off the top of the shoe.

-Sonny-

Correct. You do not play with fewer players because the positive count lasts longer. You play with fewer players, because as the count drops, you are getting more of those count dropping cards, not the other players.

So the true ideal wong situation is to have the count go very positive, you jump in -- and all the other players leave -- then the count goes down towards negative with each hand dealt.