Basic Strategy Deviation Question

[Numberman]

Hey, im learning to count using a HI/LO system, i was just wondering if i could eliminate the casino edge by just using basic strategy deviation based on the count, and not using a bet spread.

I know the whole point of counting is to increase/decrease your bets, but im curious as to what effect BS deviation by itself has on the calculated edge.

also what websites have information on BS deviation?

[creeping panther]

I have experimented doing exactly as you questioned, using many indices, in a very good game and I have beaten the house, Flat betting. When doing so I have flat bet rather large. I have actually done this on several occasions, always beating the house. Amazing.

But the "Big Picture" answer is to use many indices and bet with the count.

AP play is very complex, much more than you can imagine, nothing related to it is *simple*.

CP

[BJinNJ]

BJA3. (Chpt. 9 on SCORE)

Basically, if the conditions are good enough, including back-counting, it can be done.

BJinNJ

[Numberman]

im not looking for an advantage, im just looking for a way to kill the dealer edge

does anyone know any good websites for indices? im having trouble finding stuff on this

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by creeping panther

I have experimented doing exactly as you questioned, using many indices, in a very good game and I have beaten the house, Flat betting.

I seriously question this.

Basic strategy deviations, when flat betting, barely increase your edge. That's because the switches that you make at the most common counts (-2, -1, 0, 1, 2) aren't very valuable, and the switches you make at the most valuable counts (-3 or below, +3 or above) aren't very common.

Here are the values for making perfect basic strategy changes from TC -5 to TC +5 - that is, the difference in EV between perfect strategy and basic strategy. But when you multiply each of the changes by the likelihood of the TC, the value decreases rapidly.

TC	Change	Value
-5	0.304%	0.003%
-4	0.184%	0.004%
-3	0.103%	0.004%
-2	0.045%	0.004%
-1	0.013%	0.002%
0	0	0
1	0.002%	0
2	0.018%	0.002%
3	0.054%	0.002%
4	0.165%	0.003%
5	0.339%	0.003%

Overall, by making perfect strategy adjustments, you will gain about 0.03% on the house. More accurately, though, it's not that you will GAIN 0.03%, but that you WON'T LOSE 0.03%. That is, by always playing basic strategy, you actually play with an additional -0.03% EV against the house.

For example, if your game has a book-calculated EV of -0.57%, and you play basic strategy, your actual EV is -0.60% - because the book calculated the EV assuming the count is always 0. If you make strategy changes, then that's the only way you get the -0.57% that's actually calculated.

I really doubt anyone can beat the house with just strategy changes.

If you're backcounting and making strategy changes, that's different. The majority of your edge is coming from backcounting; only a minor portion is coming from strategy changes.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by Numberman

im not looking for an advantage, im just looking for a way to kill the dealer edge

Leaving whenever the table drops below a true count of -1 is worth about +0.3%, which will about halve the house edge on most games.

Only joining a table at a true count of +1 and leaving whenever it drops below -1 is worth about +0.5%, good enough to kill any edge for all practical purposes.

Joining a table at a true count of +1 and leaving whenever it drops below +1 is worth about +1%, giving you a small edge even at the worst games (except 6:5 blackjack).

And all without varying your bet by a single cent.

[bj bob]

...you're talking about a shoe game, however the HA on on good DD game can be significantly reduced with indeces+ flat bet and actually overcome on a good quality, deeply dealt SD game.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by bj bob

...you're talking about a shoe game, however the HA on on good DD game can be significantly reduced with indeces+ flat bet and actually overcome on a good quality, deeply dealt SD game.

Yes, this is for shoe games only.

Single- and double-deck games are definitely different. If I'm not mistaken, there's a fair amount to be gained from simple composition-dependent basic strategy for single-deck games (e.g. player 10-2 is treated differently from player 7-5).

I have never examined or played those strategies. Sorry; I assumed the OP was talking about shoe games.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by callipygian

....
Overall, by making perfect strategy adjustments, you will gain about 0.03% on the house. More accurately, though, it's not that you will GAIN 0.03%, but that you WON'T LOSE 0.03%. That is, by always playing basic strategy, you actually play with an additional -0.03% EV against the house.

For example, if your game has a book-calculated EV of -0.57%, and you play basic strategy, your actual EV is -0.60% - because the book calculated the EV assuming the count is always 0. If you make strategy changes, then that's the only way you get the -0.57% that's actually calculated.

...

couple of questions here callipygian.
you got me wondering like say about the basic strategy engine here on this site. i hear what your saying about a book-calculated EV. so but does that mean that a book-calculated EV has taken into consideration play with all known matrices as opposed to just playing plain ole vanilla basic strategy?
i mean i would have thought that say just playing through a pack using only basic strategy in the long run that the effect of negative tc's and positive tc's would virtually cancell out over time.
so anyway would such as your saying apply to the EV generated for a given game on this site as well?

[creeping panther]

Originally Posted by callipygian

Yes, this is for shoe games only.

Single- and double-deck games are definitely different. If I'm not mistaken, there's a fair amount to be gained from simple composition-dependent basic strategy for single-deck games (e.g. player 10-2 is treated differently from player 7-5).

I have never examined or played those strategies. Sorry; I assumed the OP was talking about shoe games.

I was referring to a very good DD, which is my specialty.

CP