Singing the Riverboat Blues

[rob2004]

I have been learning how to play BJ for some time, doing my best to read up on the subject, memorizing basic strategy, playing store-bought games on my laptop, practicing with an online tutorial that uses multiple decks with various rules, talking to and observing as many players and dealers as I can, and trying out various betting strategies (flat betting, positive and negative progressions, and, as advised by authors such as Richard Harvey, betting according to the flow of the cards). In fact, (because I quite simply lack the ability to hold onto numbers) about the only thing I haven’t done, is to learn how to count cards. I do however have a few idiosyncrasies, and this is why I have posted this query. You see, I’m not sure if I lose as often as I do because of these quirks of mine, or because of other factors that are beyond my ability to control.

To begin with, I am a very conservative player who never plays with more than a $250.00 stake at $5 or $10 tables, and who has almost never bet more than $40 on any one hand. Next, because I believe that the dealer is just as likely as I am to be holding either a 10 or a face card, and because 2’s are so wild, I never double or split anything other than Aces against either a 2 or a 10 and always hit anything lower than a 15 against a 2. Also, because I have more respect for 3’s than I probably should, I am very cautious about splitting or doubling against them, yet where basic strategy will say to hit a hard 9 against a 7, I will usually double. On the other hand, because none of the casinos I play at allow surrenders, as per basic strategy, I hit any 16 against a ten, and am almost invariably sorry that I did.

Perhaps craziest of all, noting that I lose far more hands than I win, I have even gone so far as to try out what I call a “Modified” or “Limited” Martingale system in which I only increase my bet until my stake is decreased to the nearest fifty or hundred dollars, and only rarely double or split on bets that would take me beyond this limit. What I do instead, when the shoe turns “cold,” (I have lost more than three or four hands in a row, and/or the dealer isn’t busting nearly as much as he or she should) is to simply sit out a few hands, or wait until the shoe is finished, and begin again, which brings me to the point. While I have become so proficient at playing on my own, that my winning streaks can actually become boring, when playing with the exact same strategies in actual casinos, the precisely opposite happens. For example, the last time I played, using a stake of 40x my lowest unit bet, I lost it all, returned home, and proceeded to win $1,000.00 on a simulated game, using the identical rules, strategies, and stake! So, here’s my question: Is it my idiosyncratic behavior that is getting the better of me, or is the discrepancy between what happens at home and in actual casino play due to the combination of dealers picking up busted hands early, depth of penetrations, and CSMs clumping cards? And if this is the case, for those of us who, after driving for three plus hours just to get to a riverboat casino, want to play blackjack for more than one or two shoes, is there any way to counter these effects (other than counting cards)? Thanks much.

P.S. I’ve considered online gambling, but because it is essentially illegal in the U.S., and because I so dearly love the live action, I would appreciate any help or feedback that you might offer.

[Harman]

If you don't want to card count try and shuffle track, buy the book busting vegas by Ben Mezrich and use the ideas stated in that, and try and improve them. Otherwise, no there is no way to overcome the house edge with a betting system that doesnt rely on a count. Counting cards isn't as hard as people make out, just give it a go is my advice, what have you got to lose?

[EasyRhino]

How well do you know basic strategy? You mention some departures in your play, but do you know each and every time when you're departing from, and what the BS play should have been?

Everyone loses more hands than they win. Even card counters. The winning hands are of average greater dollar amount (splits/doubles/naturals) which is what makes the house edge close.

I haven't heard of anyone embarking on "advanced techniques" like in busting vegas who doesn't know how to count. In fact, I'm going to say that if you can't learn a counting system, you can't pull off most advanced techniques. It's kind of a baseline skill.

So, rob, with your description of your current game... you're just gambling. And that's fine. But bear in mind that all the different betting systems and money management techniques don't matter. Not one bit.

So here are ways you could tighten your game.

- If you don't have BS memorized, memorize it.
- Stop departing from BS. No matter how much of a hunch you feel.
- Play as slowly as possible. Crowded tables, sitting out hands, etc.

These steps will reduce the house edge in percentage terms, and reduce your loss rate in dollars per hour.

And, if you really want to play with an advantage, suck it up and learn to count cards.

[Sonny]

The best advice I can give you is to stop gambling immediately. You are not playing proper basic strategy so you are increasing the house edge quite a bit. You should expect to lose very often if you play that badly. On top of that you are using a progression system which will cause you to lose even more money. Since you are playing with such a big disadvantage you should not be raising your bets at all. Betting more money will only cause you to lose more money.

As EasyRhino said, if you want to gamble that’s fine. It’s your money and you should do whatever makes you happy. But since you’re asking for advice I would suggest that you learn how to play properly first. Learn basic strategy and always use it. Don’t let your emotions or superstitions determine how you play. Playing correctly will get you almost even with the house so you will lose much less money.

There are lots of other ways for a BS player to get an advantage other that card counting. Using coupons, taking advantage of casino promotions, taking advantage of other bad players, backlining, comp counting and many other techniques can make a big difference in your results. You might even be able to get the advantage over the house. However, all of those techniques require that you learn BS first. That is the first step towards becoming a better player and losing less money.

-Sonny-

[Mr. T]

Sonny is right this one time. Just this one time.

[rob2004]

First of all, I want to thank you for your responses. It feels really good to be part of a community of other players. I apologize for any ambiguity, but I really do know basic strategy. For example, when I play tutorial games, the only reason why I score less than 100% (97-98%) is not because of mistakes or hunches that I have made, but because several of the books I have read suggest that these types of departures (such as doubling a hard 9 against a 7 when the flow of the cards suggests that 10's are due) can, and do pay off far more often than not. I'll gladly admit to being an emotional fellow, but, when I play, its all about having fun in a very business-like manner. As far as counting cards is concerned, I'm afraid that the combination of my ADD and Dyslexia makes this an impossibility. (Before you ask, like someone who uses a cane, whenever I play at an actual casino, I always bring a basic strategy card with me to make sure that my symptoms aren't getting the better of me.) Equally, I understand the stupidity of using negative betting strategies (chasing my money), but this still doesn't change the fact that at least at home, the limited Martingale system has worked for me, not every time, but most times, and has done so over the course of several hundred practice games. Needless to say, I realize that I am coming off as defensive, and I don't mean to. I am simply asking if the vastly better results I am achieving at home, v.s. in actual play, are the result of CSMs and card clumping, and if so, is there anything (other than counting cards) that can be done to counter these effects? For example, I am not sure what Sonny meant by "taking advantage of bad players," or by the term, "backlining." On the other hand, I will certainly take Harman's advice, and take a look at Busting Vegas. Thank you. Lastly, EasyRhino hit the nail on the head. That is to say, when I practice at home, I feel like an extraordinarily sharp and competent player, willing to take my loses, as long as they are at least somehwhat offset by my wins, which I must stress again, is usually the case, even if this means just breaking even. But after my visits to actual casinos, I feel like all I have been doing is "gambling," no different than the poor suckers standing at the "Wheel of Fortune" table, and this is despite the fact that I know basic strategy backwards and forwards, always keep my basic strategy card with me, bet very conservatively, play very slowly, frequently sit out hands, or even entire shoes, never ever play hunches, and always take advantage of comps. In other words, are all of you saying that with the changes that riverboat and other casinos have made, unless someone can count cards, they might as well take up another hobby?

[N&B]

One thing Rob I don't see is if the dealer hits Soft 17 or not. I presume yes, as you're not playing on the E Coast or $25 minimum in Vegas. I'm with Sonny on this one. Don't be a deviate at the 21 tables. Play Basic Correctly.

[sagefr0g]

I have been learning how to play BJ for some time, doing my best to read up on the subject, memorizing basic strategy, playing store-bought games on my laptop, practicing with an online tutorial that uses multiple decks with various rules, talking to and observing as many players and dealers as I can, and trying out various betting strategies (flat betting, positive and negative progressions, and, as advised by authors such as Richard Harvey, betting according to the flow of the cards).

hey Rob noticed where you stated you've been following Richard Harvey. as far as most anyone around here can tell Richard Harvey's books are full of malarkey.
most player and dealer advise is likely to be malarkey as well.
positive and negative progressions are voodoo.
card clumping is if anything nothing more than an unknowable random effect.
csm's are virtually not beatable.
basic strategy sounds like the one thing you are doing right as far a advantage play goes.
sounds like your feeling that you've been doing nothing but gambling are correct. even with perfect basic strategy your long term prospects are to lose money. even if you learned card counting unless you have what many people would consider a very large amount of expendible capital (a large amount of money your willing to lose) then you'd still be as likely to end up frustrated and losing money as you would happily making maybe a couple dollars an hour. so yes it can be a tough hobby to have and it does take money, knowledge and some rough experience along the way.
i have a son that shows the classic symptom of ADD and Dyslexia as well.
i ran him through some card counting exercises and he did quite well but he shows no interest in it.
just a few thoughts about your posts.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by rob2004

I apologize for any ambiguity, but I really do know basic strategy.

I must have misunderstood your post. It sounded like you were purposely playing incorrectly:

“Next, because I believe that the dealer is just as likely as I am to be holding either a 10 or a face card, and because 2’s are so wild, I never double or split anything other than Aces against either a 2 or a 10 and always hit anything lower than a 15 against a 2. Also, because I have more respect for 3’s than I probably should, I am very cautious about splitting or doubling against them, yet where basic strategy will say to hit a hard 9 against a 7, I will usually double.”

Originally Posted by rob2004

For example, when I play tutorial games, the only reason why I score less than 100% (97-98%) is not because of mistakes or hunches that I have made, but because several of the books I have read suggest that these types of departures (such as doubling a hard 9 against a 7 when the flow of the cards suggests that 10's are due) can, and do pay off far more often than not.

As SageFrog said, ignore everything you read from Richard Harvey. Also John Patrick, Jerry Patterson, and any other progression system seller. Their advice will only cause you to increase the house edge by playing and betting improperly.

Originally Posted by rob2004

Equally, I understand the stupidity of using negative betting strategies (chasing my money), but this still doesn't change the fact that at least at home, the limited Martingale system has worked for me

That’s how progression systems work: they win most of the time but when you lose you end up giving back all you profits and then some. Progression systems usually work for a while before they finally break down, but it will happen at some point. Don’t let them lull you into a false sense of security. You know that they don’t work. Don’t second-guess yourself. If you have any doubts, just look at the proof:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7109

Originally Posted by rob2004

I am simply asking if the vastly better results I am achieving at home, v.s. in actual play, are the result of CSMs and card clumping

No. The difference in your results is just ordinary variance. If you play long enough they will even out. In the end you will lose at the same rate both at home and in the casino.

Originally Posted by rob2004

For example, I am not sure what Sonny meant by "taking advantage of bad players," or by the term, "backlining."

Backlining is when you bet on another player’s hand. Instead of placing you bet on top of theirs, you place it behind. Some casinos will not let you do this, but some will. The advantage comes if the player decides to split their hand. If you don’t want to, you don’t have to. You have the option of betting on the second hand or not. If it is a profitable hand you can bet on it, but if not then you can save money by not playing it.

Taking advantage of bad players means that you can profit from their mistakes. If the other players don’t take insurance at the right time, you can take it for them. If the dealer has a BJ you win all their bets. You can also take advantage of players who double down for less or don’t want to double down at all. Since you know which hands are profitable and they don’t, you can take advantage of their mistakes and make some money.

And players are the only ones who make mistakes. There are also ways to take advantage of dealer mistakes as well. The list of techniques goes on and on. You can look through a brief list here:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...ight=scavenger

You mention that you already take advantage of comps, which is very important, but there are many ways to increase the comps you get if you know how to play the system. That is what I mean by comp counting. Max rubin wrote an entire book about this subject. Sometimes taking advantage of the comp system is enough to give you an advantage.

Originally Posted by rob2004

But after my visits to actual casinos, I feel like all I have been doing is "gambling," no different than the poor suckers standing at the "Wheel of Fortune" table…

Well, you’re right. The other suckers are playing against a higher house edge, but you are all just gambling. There’s nothing wrong with that as long as you understand that you are going to lose a little money now and again. As you said, it's just a hobby so it should be fun.

Originally Posted by rob2004

In other words, are all of you saying that with the changes that riverboat and other casinos have made, unless someone can count cards, they might as well take up another hobby?

Well, if it’s just a hobby then you can play however you like. If you want to get an advantage then you need to study some of the techniques. Card counting isn’t the only way to get an advantage. There are plenty of other options available. It all depends on how much time and effort you want to put into learning how to play properly. The fact that new casinos are opening up all over the country means that there will be even more advantages for smart players to make some money.

-Sonny-

[GeorgeD]

Rob,

Your posts aren't clear to me, but if you're going against basic strategy based on "the flow", "cold/hot streak", "number of wins/losses" pr the color of the dealer's shoes ... in other words something other than a legit advanced techniques like counting or shuffle tracking YOU WILL LOSE MORE.

Using just BS in say a $10, your wins/losses can vary from something like $320 lost to $280 won PER HOUR. This is the variance that someone mentioned that accounts for the difference between your home games and the casinos.

Follow what people said here: 1) ALWAYS follow BS and 2) NEVER use progressions (just flat bet as low as possible) and 3) NEVER follow things like hunches, change based on hands won/lost.

Doing that you will still LOSE in the long run, but you shoudl lose less than the way you are playing.

OTOH if you just enjoy the thrill of gambling and can afford the losses, feel free to follow hunches, progressions and play however you like. Just know in th elong term you will lose more money.

BTW: Dealers and other players rarely have a clue how to play correctly. Ignore their advice again unless you want to bet hunches.