Whats the cost of this play?

[shadroch]

I'm working with a new player and he has BS down pat,is working on the I18 and can count down a deck faster than I can.
He keeps focusing on an issue and I can't find the answer.
In certain soft hands,BS says to DD,even though it lessens your chances of winning the hand. I ,myself, don't fully understand the math of exactly why you do this,but accept that you should and I do.He,however,is unconvinced.
So the question is- What does it cost to simply hit on these soft hands ,rather than double down. I'm sure I have a chart for the EV of these hands,but I can't find the right one.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by shadroch

I'm working with a new player and he has BS down pat,is working on the I18 and can count down a deck faster than I can.
He keeps focusing on an issue and I can't find the answer.
In certain soft hands,BS says to DD,even though it lessens your chances of winning the hand. I ,myself, don't fully understand the math of exactly why you do this,but accept that you should and I do.He,however,is unconvinced.
So the question is- What does it cost to simply hit on these soft hands ,rather than double down. I'm sure I have a chart for the EV of these hands,but I can't find the right one.

probably will be in here shad:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ev/ev.htm

[shadroch]

Thanks.
Thats almost what I'm looking for,but not quite.I guess I need a chart that combines that,with the frequency of the hands.I'd like to be able to put it like this,with supporting evidence." If you always hit these hands when you should be doubling them,its going to win X,but if you follow BS,you'll win Y,and Y is Z more than X." You Follow?

[Canceler]

Maybe this example by Sonny will help?

[shadroch]

Close,but not quite. If we were tossing hand grenades,you'd have the kewpie prize,but I'm dealing with a real Doubting Thomas. Thanks for trying.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by shadroch

Thanks.
Thats almost what I'm looking for,but not quite.I guess I need a chart that combines that,with the frequency of the hands.I'd like to be able to put it like this,with supporting evidence." If you always hit these hands when you should be doubling them,its going to win X,but if you follow BS,you'll win Y,and Y is Z more than X." You Follow?

just show him taking some bet size and multiply it by the ev for hitt, stand, double or split from those charts and he can see the dollar value greater or lesser.

for frequency of hands here's a link:
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blac...irstcards1.htm

[Canceler]

The EV tables that sagefr0g gave the link for do show the probability (or frequency) of occurrence. Looking at A,5 vs 6 for S17 DD, if he misplays it by hitting instead of doubling, it will cost about 9 cents per hour, if he's betting $10.

Not quite the striking example we were hoping for. Of course, that amount would be higher if he were betting more. I can show my work if you think that would be of use.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by shadroch

I'm working with a new player and he has BS down pat,is working on the I18 and can count down a deck faster than I can.
He keeps focusing on an issue and I can't find the answer.
In certain soft hands,BS says to DD,even though it lessens your chances of winning the hand. I ,myself, don't fully understand the math of exactly why you do this,but accept that you should and I do.He,however,is unconvinced.
So the question is- What does it cost to simply hit on these soft hands ,rather than double down. I'm sure I have a chart for the EV of these hands,but I can't find the right one.

To explain the math in non-mathematical terms- you win less often when you double down (on many hands) but you win twice as much money when you do win. Given a choice, on a certain hand, would you rather win $100 80% of the time or win $200 75% of the time?

Not taking soft doubles probably costs in the area of 0.20%-0.30% depending on the game.

[jack,jackson]

Im pretty sure, for a flat-bet BS player, a "player" who chooses to hit soft-hands, opposed to doubling, loses about .-14. For a counter, with variable-betting, probably lose's close to about double that, but unsure of this.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

just show him taking some bet size and multiply it by the ev for hitt, stand, double or split from those charts and he can see the dollar value greater or lesser.

Another thought would be, in case you have BJIII, is just use the tables in the back that have both EV and frequency. If you want to know the cost of making that play that particular time, use the EV tables. If you want to know the cost of making that wrong play every time, multiply by the frequency like Callypigian did.

Hard to believe you could convince this guy to become an investor in a few days play. Even harder to believe he would be willing to bet to a $5K roll.
His best bet, just invest the $5K in you. IMHO.

Sorry, I just noticed I'm replying to the Wise One when I meant to be replying to the Big Guy (aka Shad) lol!