Bankroll Management

[blackjack avenger]

Let's give some thought on how to manage a bankroll to suit one's goals.

given:
10g bank
Starting fixed ROR 13.53%

Goal
Max growth
method
Resize frequently bets upward with bank growth, do not resize downward with bank losses.

Goal
bankroll preservation
method
Resize frequently bets downward with bank loss, do not resize upward with bank growth.

Thoughts?

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

Let's give some thought on how to manage a bankroll to suit one's goals.

given:
10g bank
Starting fixed ROR 13.53%

Goal
Max growth
method
Resize frequently bets upward with bank growth, do not resize downward with bank losses.

Goal
bankroll preservation
method
Resize frequently bets downward with bank loss, do not resize upward with bank growth.

Thoughts?

Use growth and preservation strategies simultaneously. Resize at 50% points -
BR falls 50%, cut bet size to 50% - BR grows 50% increase bet size 50%. zg

[blackjack avenger]

Zen
Looks like you found a middle strategy.
It is a little more aggressive then the double your bank or half it strategy.

I believe one would have a 75% chance of winning 50% of bank before losing 50% of bank.

Perhaps this can be called the "two face" betting strategy

[sagefr0g]

with ten grand i'd rather have a lower ROR.
maybe one percent. (not really sure)
to where your max bet doesn't get you in those really wild swings so much.
but yeah raise the max bet at some point as the roll grows.
it would be nice if you could start out with a unit that could be reduced if the roll declined to some point. just doubt with a ten grand roll that could be done with as low a ROR as i'd want.

actually i'd rather not have a bankroll at all except some modest trip bankroll.
have some 'reasonable' ramp and spread for that trip.
go at it like that each time while watching your bottom line. have the idea of when i've lost to much then screw it or if i'm winning money then good. if your winning money set it aside and consider it touchable if you want in the future for play purposes.
such is the life of a recreational player me thinks.

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

with ten grand i'd rather have a lower ROR.
maybe one percent. (not really sure)
to where your max bet doesn't get you in those really wild swings so much.
but yeah raise the max bet at some point as the roll grows.
it would be nice if you could start out with a unit that could be reduced if the roll declined to some point. just doubt with a ten grand roll that could be done with as low a ROR as i'd want.

actually i'd rather not have a bankroll at all except some modest trip bankroll.
have some 'reasonable' ramp and spread for that trip.
go at it like that each time while watching your bottom line. have the idea of when i've lost to much then screw it or if i'm winning money then good. if your winning money set it aside and consider it touchable if you want in the future for play purposes.
such is the life of a recreational player me thinks.

Well, I think you know you can have a fixed 1.83% ror or even 1%, but when exactly would you raise or lower your bets?

or

One could start of at a 13.53% fixed and if they lose half their bank and cut bets in half then their total ror I think is about 5%.

Which would you prefer? or something else?

[cardcounter0]

Resize frequently bets upward with bank growth, do not resize downward with bank losses.

Sounds like a recipe for going broke. Blackjack has it's ups and downs no matter what advantage you have. You swing up and resize to larger bets. Then when the down swing rolls around you lose it back faster. At break even you are now overbetting your bankroll. The down swing continues and you lose faster than ever, or you get another up swing and win it all back and go higher, so resize to a larger bet size and be prepared to lose it even quicker.

Normally 90% of the time you are behind. In other words, you have won more and lost a little back. It is rare to be at an all time high, you usually slide back a little. If you resize to bigger bets on every upstroke, then you are going to be continually overbetting -- which leads to going broke.

"one could start of at a 13.53% fixed and if they lose half their bank and cut bets in half"

Although this helps keep you from going broke, it is not a good way to make money. If you ever have a bad run and lose half, when you resize, it now takes you twice as long to dig yourself out of the hole. It will seem like you are always scratching your way out to get even.

Size your bets to your bankroll and a ROR % you are comfortable with. If you lose half your bank, dig out of the hole at the full bet rate and time (or go broke -- that is the risk you accepted when you started). If your bank increases enough (double, 80%, 150%), then resize. The initial ROR % is partially based on banking winnings and it anticipates that you might have a losing streak -- you don't want to increase bet size too soon or you are playing at a higher ROR % -- you lose it back faster than you bank it.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

Well, I think you know you can have a fixed 1.83% ror or even 1%, but when exactly would you raise or lower your bets? talkin some lifetime ror here for some arbitray lifetime bankroll.

not sure the significance of the 1.83% figure
but i'd just sim what ever game and adjust to the ROR i want and the sim sets up the proper betting proportion. then you know your winrate and can decide if your happy with that or not.

or

One could start of at a 13.53% fixed and if they lose half their bank and cut bets in half then their total ror I think is about 5%.

Which would you prefer? or something else?

isn't when your ROR is circa 13% your probably betting close to full kelly and thats likely optimal for your bankroll growth? thing is that's known to have 'scary' fluctuations for most mere mortals. to where i think it's common according to Snyder that one goes maybe 1/3 kelly and all that? so i doubt i'd wanna start at the 13.53% and then if i lost half the bank cut bets in half for the 5%.
so when you say a total ROR of 5% do you mean for that half a bank you got left or looking at the past history of once having had twice as much bank proclaim to yourself that prior bankroll now is being risked at 5% instead of 13.53%. sorry i'm total ignorant of how that works.

really i think i'd rather just go trip by trip maybe leave the worrying about some ROR to the trip bank instead of the lifetime deal. have some 'modest' goal and hope i make it. maybe just have some imaginary lifetime bankroll that seems maybe reasonable and some hoped for ROR for that imaginary lifetime bankroll. then just play as if the lifetime roll was real but going by some really trip bankroll with some 'reasonable' ror and goal. all the while keeping track of the bottom line money lost or won and maybe make decisions based on that about future play.
all that along recreational lines. but really i get pretty wild i guess with my fuzzy counting thing so even with all that i can only hope to be in the ballpark hopefully of all that. lol

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

not sure the significance of the 1.83% figure
but i'd just sim what ever game and adjust to the ROR i want and the sim sets up the proper betting proportion. then you know your winrate and can decide if your happy with that or not.

isn't when your ROR is circa 13% your probably betting close to full kelly and thats likely optimal for your bankroll growth? thing is that's known to have 'scary' fluctuations for most mere mortals. to where i think it's common according to Snyder that one goes maybe 1/3 kelly and all that? so i doubt i'd wanna start at the 13.53% and then if i lost half the bank cut bets in half for the 5%.
so when you say a total ROR of 5% do you mean for that half a bank you got left or looking at the past history of once having had twice as much bank proclaim to yourself that prior bankroll now is being risked at 5% instead of 13.53%. sorry i'm total ignorant of how that works.

really i think i'd rather just go trip by trip maybe leave the worrying about some ROR to the trip bank instead of the lifetime deal. have some 'modest' goal and hope i make it. maybe just have some imaginary lifetime bankroll that seems maybe reasonable and some hoped for ROR for that imaginary lifetime bankroll. then just play as if the lifetime roll was real but going by some really trip bankroll with some 'reasonable' ror and goal. all the while keeping track of the bottom line money lost or won and maybe make decisions based on that about future play.
all that along recreational lines. but really i get pretty wild i guess with my fuzzy counting thing so even with all that i can only hope to be in the ballpark hopefully of all that. lol

I believe the 5% ror is your total ror from the beginning when you decide to play the cut stakes in half style. One's chances of doubling before losing half I believe is 66%. If you lose half your stake and then cut your bets in half from that point forward if you do not resize again the ror should be 13.53%?

The 13.53% ror for fixed betting is not magical, not different from 14% or 10% except for the actual number. The 13.53% comes from what the fixed ror would be for optimal resizing. If you were to optimal resize at any one particular moment your ror should be 13.53%.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

I believe the 5% ror is your total ror from the beginning when you decide to play the cut stakes in half style. One's chances of doubling before losing half I believe is 66%. If you lose half your stake and then cut your bets in half from that point forward if you do not resize again the ror should be 13.53%?

thank you blackjack avenger. wow that's kind of cool.

The 13.53% ror for fixed betting is not magical, not different from 14% or 10% except for the actual number. The 13.53% comes from what the fixed ror would be for optimal resizing. If you were to optimal resize at any one particular moment your ror should be 13.53%.

lol it seems kind of magical to me.
no really maybe it's just me, my experience what i've seen messing around with sims.
just seems that 13% number or there close abouts pops up when you maximize your bankroll growth using a sim for some bankroll.
probably i'm wrong. seemed like i recall automonkey talking about how it's usually about 13% ror when your shooting for maximizing bankroll growth.
probably just a coincidence maybe.
i'll go fool with my simulator till i find some bankroll or what ever and the ror doesnt come close to 13%. that'll prove i'm wrong lol.
edit:ok yeah your right lol nothin magical. i just found a 7% ror for a maximize bankroll.

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

thank you blackjack avenger. wow that's kind of cool.

lol it seems kind of magical to me.
no really maybe it's just me, my experience what i've seen messing around with sims.
just seems that 13% number or there close abouts pops up when you maximize your bankroll growth using a sim for some bankroll.
probably i'm wrong. seemed like i recall automonkey talking about how it's usually about 13% ror when your shooting for maximizing bankroll growth.
probably just a coincidence maybe.
i'll go fool with my simulator till i find some bankroll or what ever and the ror doesnt come close to 13%. that'll prove i'm wrong lol.
edit:ok yeah your right lol nothin magical. i just found a 7% ror for a maximize bankroll.

Can't your sim run optimal bets? Wouldn't that be the best? It should be 13.53% ror.

For fixed bets your ror is what it is, 10%, 13.53%, 15% whatever.

With optimal continuous resizing (kelly criterion hypothetical 0% ror,) if you were to take a snapshot ror for a moment in time, that ror is 13.53%. This is where the 13.53% comes from.