Bet Spreads

[matt21]

Hi, I am brand new to the forum and it looks like the forums contain a wealth of information (i have spent a few hours browsing various threads). It all looks very excellent!!

I have a small question regarding bet variation.

Up to this point I have been playing a 1-12 spread i.e. 1,2,4,8,10,12 for TC +1,+2,+3,+4,+5,+6. I have an (arbitrary) bankroll of 600 units (taken from business profits) plus 251 units of winnings = 851.

I am thinking of changing to a 1-10 spread in the order of 1,3,6,10,10,10 - doing some calculations (using results from simulations from bjstats.com) in xls, seems that my expected unit return per hour would be about the same, but my gut feel is that the change in spread would adversely impact on my variance and thus RoR?

Background on my game:
I have been playing for just over six months:
4D or 6D, S17, DAS No surrender 70-80% pen
count using Hi-Low Method with I18 indeces
Hours played: 223 (using either $5-$60 or ($5)$10-$120 standard unit)
Status: +251 units (1.13 units/hour)
Hands played: approx 15,000 avg 70 hands/hr (often engage in heads-on play)

Would welcome comments that anyone may have, as to whether it would be smart to do this or not.

Matt

[jimpenn]

I would wait until I had at least 100 4 hour sessions prior to changing betting strategy.

[zengrifter]

Your spread 1-10 in 4-6D games is only adequate if you avoind negative counts, in which case 1-8 will suffice.
If you do not avoid the negEV counts you will need 1-20+ spread. zg

[matt21]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Your spread 1-10 in 4-6D games is only adequate if you avoind negative counts, in which case 1-8 will suffice.
If you do not avoid the negEV counts you will need 1-20+ spread. zg

Thank you for your answer on this zengrifter - also I very much enjoyed reading your interview on this site.

Can I confirm a couple of items re your EV statement-

- negEV refers to any situation where the casino has an advantage - i.e. the standard advantage driven by the casino's rules +/- change in advantage due to the true count?
- Avoiding negEV- It would be difficult for me to wong into shoes where i play - the casinos are relatively quiet (at the times i go) - hence i typically play from the beginning of the shoe and exit if TC is worse than -2. However, i play with only 0.5 units if the TC is below +1 - does this approach effectively turn my 1-12 spread into a 1-24 spread?

Thanks in advance,
Matt

[matt21]

Originally Posted by jimpenn

I would wait until I had at least 100 4 hour sessions prior to changing betting strategy.

thanks for your reply!

how many hours (on a weekly basis) do serious counter normally go for? I aim for approx 20 a week unless i am very busy with non-B.J. projects.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by matt21

However, i play with only 0.5 units if the TC is below +1 - does this approach effectively turn my 1-12 spread into a 1-24 spread?

I'd say yes.

If so, does that mean your original 600 unit roll was actually a 1200 unit roll?

I can't really help you that much with your question. Aside that, to me, stuff like "I have been playing for just over six months:4D or 6D, S17, DAS No surrender 70-80% pen" is already 4 or more different games, lol. All I can suggest is if you change to 1-10 (or maybe 1-20 lol), maybe it's possible your original dollar unit might change to keep your ROR the same. Maybe not. Maybe your unit variance would go down but, in dollars, go up, maybe not, etc. Maybe you'll choose to bet to your new 851 unit roll or maybe make it comparable to your original 600 unit roll but with a different dollar unit obviously.

You mention winning 1.13 units per hour, what is the variance of that - like how would you know if a different spread increases it or decreases it anyway?
Likewise with ROR. Like I guess the 1.13 is apparently actual but what was expected over your 15000 hands?

I guess if you have a spreadsheet that you are using, and if it has the basics of freq, adv, SD at each TC, I could try to help with the ROR and variance stuff for different spreads for whatever game and assumptions that spsheet is portraying.

But one spsheet can't portray a 4D 70% game and an 80% 6D game or vice-versa at the same time kind of thing. You can assume they are all "equal" if you want. And, like you say, any differences may not be great enough to bother you. That's up to you to decide.

[matt21]

Originally Posted by Kasi

I can't really help you that much with your question. Aside that, to me, stuff like "I have been playing for just over six months:4D or 6D, S17, DAS No surrender 70-80% pen" is already 4 or more different games, lol.

You mention winning 1.13 units per hour, what is the variance of that - like how would you know if a different spread increases it or decreases it anyway?
Likewise with ROR. Like I guess the 1.13 is apparently actual but what was expected over your 15000 hands?

I guess if you have a spreadsheet that you are using, and if it has the basics of freq, adv, SD at each TC, I could try to help with the ROR and variance stuff for different spreads for whatever game and assumptions that spsheet is portraying.

Hi Kasi, thanks for your reply! Apologies for not being more specific - re-reading my post I realise how vague i was in places!

I play at a number of casinos, some have 4D and some are 6D - the penetration varies with each dealer, but on the whole I am looking at pen scenarios of 75 & 83. I need to do some more learning regarding SD, ROR and Variance before discussing further (but will then come back to you!). Although I aced this topics at University, i now remember little about them.

But yes i have already put some spreadsheets together at this point that provide for freq, adv, expectancy at each TC to work out an expected rate of return - and i have created variables for number of decks, pen, hands/hour (also linked to number of players/boxes and number of decks). However these do not provide for SD, VAR or ROR.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by matt21

But yes i have already put some spreadsheets together at this point that provide for freq, adv, expectancy at each TC to work out an expected rate of return - and i have created variables for number of decks, pen, hands/hour (also linked to number of players/boxes and number of decks). However these do not provide for SD, VAR or ROR.

I made a similar spreadsheet if you're interested:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2845

It calculates approximate EV, SD and RoR for any bet spread you enter.

-Sonny-

[matt21]

Originally Posted by Sonny

I made a similar spreadsheet if you're interested:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2845
It calculates approximate EV, SD and RoR for any bet spread you enter.
-Sonny-

hey this is great - thank you!

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by matt21

But yes i have already put some spreadsheets together at this point that provide for freq, adv, expectancy at each TC to work out an expected rate of return - and i have created variables for number of decks, pen, hands/hour (also linked to number of players/boxes and number of decks). However these do not provide for SD, VAR or ROR.

Please don't apologize - no need for that. And I apologize for making you feel that you needed to apologize lol.

I just meant, I think lol, that one still needs a sim to at least generate those freq, adv and SD's at each TC for whatever assumptions you want - like whether you are using indexes, what counting system, pen level, game rules, etc. I don't think a spreadsheet can really do that. But once you have them, it can calculate pretty much whatever for changing spreads, like Sonny's sheet does.

But, while it can do that, I still struggle with optimal spreads and how one knows when to place max bet or intermediate bets on the way to a 1-X spread. Sims are good for that too.

Like, in Sonny's sheet, if I downloaded the right one, what if he bet $80 at TC+4 instead of $60 in the first tab? Like I get N0 would go down so, even though ROR would go up to 7.3%, so would that make it a "better", maybe I mean more optimal, spread?

Also, not that it matters, I don't understand what the 0.62% in cell B15 means. Like I get all his numbers but I get an EV of 0.868%.