OT - Advice Needed On Playing the Horses

[GeorgeD]

I know there aren't any gamblers here, but can anyone point me to some newbie advice on Horseracing? Maybe a good website?

Am going to Saratoga Springs this weekend to link up with some old friends, and would like to bet without getting my clock cleaned. Harness Racing there .. I think.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by GeorgeD

I know there aren't any gamblers here, but can anyone point me to some newbie advice on Horseracing? Maybe a good website?

Am going to Saratoga Springs this weekend to link up with some old friends, and would like to bet without getting my clock cleaned. Harness Racing there .. I think.

tranter used to post a lot here but not lately. dunno if you could get his attention.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=8758

gambler here lol.

[hawkeye]

What kind of info are you looking for? I know a decent amount about horse racing.

The ponies are great if you don't want to gamble with too much money, but still want to have fun. The minimum bets are small, so you can spend way less than $200 and make tons of bets all day long.

I don't know your level of experience, but generally take a look at the website for the track. They should have a list of winning jockeys, horses, and trainers (all time and for just this season, maybe last season). Check it out, remember the top 5-10 in each enough to recognize their names again. Buy a Daily Racing Form, not just the little guide. Read the commentary by the handicappers for the day, look at the horses stats. The best money is usually made on Exacta's and Trifecta's. Don't bother with Quinella's, the pot isn't as big, just do an Exacta Box as the Exacta pot is nearly always higher.

I could go on and on about horse racing, lemme know what you're looking for.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

tranter used to post a lot here but not lately.

I think traynor left after claiming that professional gamblers use progression systems and flawed streak systems:

"Yes, we are well aware that it is "mathematically impossible" to gain an advantage using a Labouchere [progression system]. Yes, we are well aware that the Gambler's Fallacy is a belief in another impossibility. We have no interest whatsoever in debating the situation. However, in the real world, outside the theory, and the forums, and the "expert opinion," there are a number of very adept professional bettors who are laughing all the way to the bank with their winnings, and have done so for a number of years with a regularity that would give a casino pit boss a fit of hysteria if known."

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9098

Apparently the word "impossible" means different things to different people.

-Sonny-

[ChefJJ]

Originally Posted by hawkeye

The best money is usually made on Exacta's and Trifecta's.

George D,

Realize that many tracks take out substantially more off the top on exotic bets (exacta, trifecta, etc.) than they do the WPS (win, place, show) bets. The take out is basically what the track takes out of the pot before any winning bets are paid. On average, you are looking at about 15% for WPS and 25% for exotics.

Exotics are good ways to hit home runs, while picking winners is a grind. I prefer picking winners, but hey, to each his own. Betting the horses is a great time, and Saratoga is a great track...but they aren't racing harness, it's full-blown Thoroughbreds right now!

good luck & have fun

[Brock Windsor]

Sometimes you can get +EV if the track guarantees a $2.10 show payout even on a horse that is an extreme favourite to win. If I go I bet the minimum and pick the favourite to show generally. The house take-out at any track I've seen is far too high to actually make money long-term without knowledge unavailable to most gamblers IMO. One strategy I do like if picking long-shots is find a horse that has just started taking a drug, or is just off taking a drug. Since doping rules for horses very from state to state sometimes an out of state horse can put in a significantly different performance if it is racing for the first time on or off a drug. (Not necessarily a better performance, just different from usual)
BW

[GeorgeD]

Thanks for the info, guys.

Wow I'm surprised the track takes 15%-25% of the pot! I always thought there was a way to get +EV on horses if you were a good enough handicapper. Tough to overcome that edge.

The track guaranteeing a $2.10 payout sounds like some EV, but I've read that so many people play the favorites that they can be lousy bets. I guess the odds on so-so favorites can get pushed artificially low.

Top sheets don't seem too expensive and as I said ... if the info is +ev why is someone selling $10 tip sheets instead of at the track betting $1000's? Seems though DRF is a reliable way to get current info and at least for me to get pointed in the right direction. It's an interesting sport, but the Last thing I need is another hobby that costs money.

[hawkeye]

I agree, the money taken off the top of exotic bets is far more, but the flipside is that betting favorites to be in the top 3 doesn't pay a lot.

In my usual days at the track I'll make 2 or 3 bets per race, sometimes simulcast bets on other tracks I know. I'll probably only cash two tickets all day, but usually those two cover everything and then some. Simplifying it a little, pick an exacta box with the second favorite and something like a 5th or 6th favorite. That is actually how over half the races finish, and those exactas pay huge. Last time out in Phoenix I hit one exacta at the Phoenix track and one at Hollywood or somewhere in SoCal, both just $2 bets. Each one paid over $60 and I made my money back for the day.

Trifectas are a whole other can of worms, hard to pick but it feels great when you hit it.

I also agree that picking winners is more of a grind. If you are good at it, awesome, congrats. I'm envious, I always pick the 2nd place horse as the winner, it's my curse. You could probably make a living by picking my winners to show!

[ChefJJ]

Originally Posted by hawkeye

I agree, the money taken off the top of exotic bets is far more, but the flipside is that betting favorites to be in the top 3 doesn't pay a lot.

Very good point! I tend to pass on betting a winner that is going off at less than 2:1 odds.

However, I use my own rating system to evaluate each horse, so if I find a particular pony to be in another world compared to the rest of the field I will likely still bet it (unless it is odds on).

good luck

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Sonny

......

Apparently the word "impossible" means different things to different people.

-Sonny-

back in the day i knew some women for which that was true.