luck

[sagefr0g]

did you ever wonder what luck was?
i did maybe once when i was a child. but i'm not really sure. just would have to assume i did since i guess i have some concept of what luck is. not sure if i ever looked up the definition of luck either. so but here are some definitons from one source: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/luck
luck
–noun 1. the force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person's life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities: With my luck I'll probably get pneumonia.
2. good fortune; advantage or success, considered as the result of chance: He had no luck finding work.
3. a combination of circumstances, events, etc., operating by chance to bring good or ill to a person: She's had nothing but bad luck all year.
4. some object on which good fortune is supposed to depend: This rabbit's foot is my luck.
—Verb phrasesInformal. 5. luck into or onto, to meet, acquire, become, etc., by good luck: She lucked into a great job.
6. luck out, to have an instance or run of exceptionally good luck: He lucked out when he made a hole in one during the tournament.
7. luck upon, to come across by chance: to luck upon a profitable investment.
—Idioms8. down on one's luck, in unfortunate circumstances; unlucky: She hated to see her old friend so down on her luck.
9. in luck, lucky; fortunate: We were in luck, for the bakery was still open.
10. luck of the draw, the luck one has in or as if in drawing cards.
11. out of luck, unlucky; unfortunate: When it comes to getting World Series tickets, we're usually out of luck.
12. push one's luck, Informal. to try to make too much of an opportunity; go too far. Also, crowd one's luck.

so i guess we know you might get lots of different ways to define luck from various sources. so but maybe this one will do.
so but why bother? after all we all know what luck is right?
well maybe not me since of late with my obsessive interest in gambling and investing and all the question of luck has become a point of interest and in my case a good bit of confusion.
so but of late i've actually been trying to think about the subject of luck. not much lol, not enough to get a headacke. but enough to maybe think luck is vastly more complicated than one might think at first blush just going about ones daily activities. but still why bother? for me now it's just a natural confluence of my interest in gambling and investing but invigorated by a kind of a wake up call mentally when i stumbled upon the book The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/
now there is a guy who's obsessed with luck and has been so ever since a young age.
so but anyway it's an interesting subject and suprisingly perhaps not even applicable to casino's! the thing for me about luck, real luck not standard deviation, not making your expectation but the prospect of fortune is the question of can it be realized in a casino. it's always been an interest of mine ever since learning some things about advantage play that the process is so robotic and lends no room for judgement, thought or wisdom. a computer which experts say isn't even as intelligent as a grasshopper can perform advantage play flawlessly. but when it comes to luck, really luck a computer is clueless and so are probably most of us. but well if you believe Taleb wisdom has it's place.

[Doofus]

Luck is the residue of design.

-Branch Rickey

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Doofus

Luck is the residue of design.

-Branch Rickey

that's what i've been thinking!
the idea that advantage play is analogous to design. and luck is ancillary.
the trick would be recognizing the residue shrouded in it's chaotic form or lack there of. seize it and put it to work for you with maybe more design.
problem with that scenerio i guess is the problem of the likelyhood of diminishing returns and just plain risk i guess. point being i guess the payoff needs to be way large compared to the risk and the original designed advantage maybe?

[blackjack avenger]

Luck = Variance?

Luck = hard work meets opportunity?

Is one luckier if they play a strong game vs a weak game?

Is when hard work meets opportunity when you study some indices beyond the Catch 22 and you get your chance to employ them and you are successful? Is that making your own luck?

Actually we have a lot of control over our play:
What % ror do we accept?
resizing?
close indice play?
when to enter a table?
when to leave a table?
where to play?
how often to play?
camoflauge?
tips?

We are masters of our own ship but we are in some rough seas due to variance. I guess it matters if we are a lucky captain or not

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

We are masters of our own ship but we are in some rough seas due to variance. I guess it matters if we are a lucky captain or not

Hmm. The picture is clear to me now as I sit oarless in my rowboat looking down the barrel of tsunami. The lip of the wave splashes water on my face as the rowboat begins to invert and just then, I wake up standing on a pile of chocolate.

BJC:

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

Luck = Variance?

Luck = hard work meets opportunity?

Is one luckier if they play a strong game vs a weak game?

Is when hard work meets opportunity when you study some indices beyond the Catch 22 and you get your chance to employ them and you are successful? Is that making your own luck?

not to hard to guess your thoughts on those attributes oh vengeful one.
except maybe of the Luck = Variance one.
that's the one where my feable frog hopefulness muses upon turning the mundane into fortune. well maybe not fortune but a small level of luck.
the symmetry of variance be dammed
sagefr0g's know when they experience high positive standard deviation and when they are approaching low negative standard deviation.
and like their chameleon brethren know how to change their spots. see below as well as above your words:

Actually we have a lot of control over our play:
What % ror do we accept?
resizing?
close indice play?
when to enter a table?
when to leave a table?
where to play?
how often to play?
camoflauge?
tips?

ahmen. glory halleluya brotha!
that's IMHO can be as far as how we fool around with those choices could be a way to do the tango with lady luck a bit.

We are masters of our own ship but we are in some rough seas due to variance. I guess it matters if we are a lucky captain or not

advantage play is what it is. the question is can luck be made, can it be profited from, taken advantage of? or is it an integral part of advantage play and shouldn't be tampered with?
davey jones ain't gonna tell ya. lmao. dead men tell no tales.

[blackjack avenger]

Perhaps we make our own luck by becoming skilled.

[hawkeye]

Luck favors the advantage player just like luck favors the prepared.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

Perhaps we make our own luck by becoming skilled.

that's one we agree on.
how about the concept of knowing sh!t from apple butter.
and the good sense of what to do with either?
those aspects of the equation seem totally ignored in advantage play where the attitude seems to be just keep throwing money at it since it's all good.
but me thinks it isn't all good. some of it stinks to high heaven. other of it is like mana from heaven. it's as if just because a computer doesn't have a sense of smell or taste and it can achieve an advantage then we should ignore our ability to smell and taste. like maybe the computer sim doubles it's bankroll at some point fairly early on and then goes on playing and loses maybe all of that and then some million hands later or so more than doubles it.
so but we don't know how it went when we look at the end results we just know the standard deviation and some averaged out hourly win number that probably won't relate to our real world results more than once every blue moon or so. the computer just keeps playing the same way never changes and it gets the money. so there is something i don't understand about that.
is there some rule that says if you change the way you play at some point that you won't get the money or maybe even more money?
i know you've mentioned bet re-sizing. well that's one thing i don't see my simulator doing. is that a wrong thing? i suspect not. are there other changes one could make and still make money? i dunno but i suspect so. if it is wouldn't that be skill as opposed to playing like a robot? could that be skill making luck?

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by hawkeye

Luck favors the advantage player just like luck favors the prepared.

some think it has nothing to do with luck. there is no gamble.
maybe that's close to right or has some significance. maybe there is no luck in a casino. maybe it's all standard deviation and expectation and it's all known what can happen, no surprises.
if that's the case the question would be is there a factor that can change that above and beyond the dull known expectations? what could it be other than us who might throw a monkey wrench straight into the heart of the guts of the ever grinding casino machine monster lol? yeah we know how to mimic the casino machine and turn the tables on it. that's advantage play and with it we can grind out maybe a decent little profit for our selve's.
wouldn't luck if it were possible be more than that? i like the idea that you allude to. the idea of using advantage play so as to expose ourselves to the possibility of luck.
so maybe if there isn't luck in a casino there is something like it. that's standard deviation. and another thing that's like luck in a casino is shooting for a goal and making it. those can be short term events. here and now sort of things. the stuff that feel good is made of. the orthodox advantage player experience's that feel good stuff rarely. the rest of the time he's if he's human miserable. he's gonna get his money but what is he gonna do with it? he's gonna buy something to feel good lol. maybe it's like the old bed time story of the ant and the grasshopper. lol. where the ant worked his a$$ off and the grasshopper played. what was it the ant was warm and cozy in his house when winter hit and would have let the grasshopper in if he wasn't so big and fat. lol. did the grasshopper end up freezing to death or just end up feeling like a dumb schlemeal while he mooched off the ant?
so we don't want to be like the grasshopper that's for sure.
maybe luck is finding the balance between being a miserable but warm ant and a happy but frozen grasshopper.