House Edge and Noobs

[GeorgeD]

It seems like people keep coming here thinking that the house edge "resets" every shoe, table switch, day, week, session, whatever. IOW: many think if they "beat" the edge for some time period that the next period is a whole new ballgame. They think they can always lock in winnings, but they can always recover their losses.

I think this is kind of like a variation of the gamblers fallicy

What (maybe in FAQ's) might easily explain this fault in logic to the average newcomer?

[shadroch]

It's hard to explain,because in a way,it does reset. If you have a white coin and a black coin and they are in a pot in equal amounts,you should get them in equal amounts. But if you pull out twenty White ones in a row,then over the next hundred,you'll still get about a fifty-fifty division, not 70-30 Black.Its only over the long run that it will even up.

[GeorgeD]

Good point, but you can't exploit that change unless you count the number of white and black you have pulled so far ..... a great analogy, but if you have a billion of each color in the box it will be an ever changing edge that eventually converges to 50/50. No?

Originally Posted by shadroch

It's hard to explain,because in a way,it does reset. If you have a white coin and a black coin and they are in a pot in equal amounts,you should get them in equal amounts. But if you pull out twenty White ones in a row,then over the next hundred,you'll still get about a fifty-fifty division, not 70-30 Black.Its only over the long run that it will even up.

[bj bob]

Originally Posted by GeorgeD

Good point, but you can't exploit that change unless you count the number of white and black you have pulled so far ..... a great analogy, but if you have a billion of each color in the box it will be an ever changing edge that eventually converges to 50/50. No?

The critical difference here is whether you put the coins back in the pot after each draw or not. I believe Shad is talking about returning them as he goes which would result in the 50:50 conclusion.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by GeorgeD

It seems like people keep coming here thinking that the house edge "resets" every shoe, table switch, day, week, session, whatever. IOW: many think if they "beat" the edge for some time period that the next period is a whole new ballgame. They think they can always lock in winnings, but they can always recover their losses.
.....

i think maybe the quality of the shoe does reset every shoe or at least it might and is probably likely to do so. if your counting the shoe is most likely crap i forget what is it on average over the long haul count the shoes up and 75% were crap for you the counter and 25% were juicey? i think those numbers are kind of pie in the sky but maybe those numbers are more accurate for hands played sort of thing. but yeah like you say as far as anyone knows any shoe off the top has some house edge that you expect. definately true if your just playing basic strategy and not counting. well it's true too even if you are counting. you just know that it's in the long haul gonna be a lot of crap and a little juice. and admittedly you never know how it's gonna come at you.
but count me in on the idea if i beat the edge for some time period that the next time period is a whole new ballgame. like for me it's pretty likely i'm playing a weak game from the get go. if i win some money more than the expectation that i'd have in the case for which i was playing a strong game that gives me at least two alternatives. i can now choose to play a stronger game with that money won from the weaker play or i can now risk the money won from the weaker play and continue to play a weak game in hopes of lightening striking twice in the same place. you can take the same tacts in the unfortunate case where you are below expectation.
so but technically i guess your right you can't lock the money in and you can't always recover loss's. it's like what i'm talking about isn't advisable orthodox advantage play. but you can fiddle with those aspects a bit though for the fun of it.

[jay28]

Originally Posted by GeorgeD

It seems like people keep coming here thinking that the house edge "resets" every shoe, table switch, day, week, session, whatever. IOW: many think if they "beat" the edge for some time period that the next period is a whole new ballgame. They think they can always lock in winnings, but they can always recover their losses.

I think this is kind of like a variation of the gamblers fallicy

What (maybe in FAQ's) might easily explain this fault in logic to the average newcomer?

The house edge does reset for each session. For an example imagine a roulette table with no house edge, (no greens) just red and black numbers. All black numbers have came in for the last 20 spins......

Would you put you money on red because the stats have to even out?

The answer is no...it's still 50/50 for either a red or black result.

Every shoe in blackjack is individual, It's not until you have the data from the long haul that the house or player edge becomes predictable. The next game is a new ball game, however the next 10,000 isn't.

[GeorgeD]

I see what you all mean .. each shoe and each hand is a new event.

What I'm trying to say is many people seem not understand that the long term odds will play out in the end ... either + for an AP or - for a Non AP. They don't see each days session as just part of the overall "long term". That's why people think things like stop loss plans or money management can make them a winner overall.

Most people will say that if they flip 10 heads in a row that the next flip is more likely to be tails but we know it is still 50/50 because the last ten flips are history.

Even extreme Positive or negative variance doesn't change the future ... it just becomes less significant to the long term as more and more hands are played out. The gamblers fallacy makes people believe otherwise.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by GeorgeD

What I'm trying to say is many people seem not understand that the long term odds will play out in the end ...

No big deal - said it before and I'll say it again lol.

What does "long-term" mean?

In theory, it's "forever". In practice, people only live so long. Or play so many hands/roulette/crap decisions. With different rolls and goals and the possibility of changing unit size at any time, although "systems" never include that possibility.

[Brock Windsor]

[QUOTE=Kasi;93735].
What does "long-term" mean?
In theory, it's "forever". In practice, people only live so long. Or play so many hands/roulette/crap decisions. [QUOTE]


The consensus I've received seems to be that 20000 hands puts you in the long run, at least for BJ. Anyone else have an opinion on a "reasonable" long run?
BW

[N&B]

George:
IMHO they seem to be of the "dice-rolling" mentality. Every toss is no indication of prior or future results. And it seems to them that the cards do not have a memory. So when they win, they press, and when they lose, they press. Anything except the dreaded break-even.