Texas Hold Em

[GeorgeD]

What kind of bankroll and what kind of EV can a decent poker player expect playing live games? Is there as much variance as found in BJ?

My guess is that after the rake it's tough to make money long term for all but the best player. Am I right?

[Canceler]

I'm kind of getting interested in this, too. Looking forward to the answers.

[shadroch]

How would one answer this? The same player that is a shark against a bunch of beginners on Monday may be a minnow against stronger players on Friday.
I'd imagine a good player can easily find his level and do pretty nicely, as long as he doesn't get greedy.

[callipygian]

Limit or No Limit?

If you're playing low limit, I'd say 1-2 BB/hr depending on the rake. Others will claim as much as 5 BB/hr, but I think that's horse poop. The variance is smaller than blackjack; while I have no math to back it up, I'd say somewhere around 1/3 of a blackjack bankroll for the same ROR (where 1 BB = 1 unit). Keep in mind that most poker games are dealt slower (50-100 hands/hr) than most blackjack games (100-200 hands/hr), so there's a discrepancy between the EV (which is per hand) and the win per hour.

I've played about 100 hours of poker. I went down about 100 BB in the first 10 hours (mostly timidness due to being new to the game), but now I'm up about 150 BB.

I have never played a higher limit or no limit.

[cardcounter0]

Variance is much lower in Poker, therefore bankroll requirements are low.

Limit Texas Hold 'Em bankroll is measured in "Big Bets". 300 big bets is considered the correct "kelly" bank. So if you are playing $5/$10 blinds, the kelly ROR bankroll would be $6000. Playing low limit $2/$4 you should have $2400 bankroll.

No-Limit Texas Hold 'Em bankroll (which actually has lower variance) is usually measured in buy-ins, with 10 buy-ins being a good measure of thumb. So to play $1/$2 $200 max buy-in no limit, $2000 would be a good bank.

Win rates in bigger tougher games is 2 "big bets" per hour, but with the no-fold 'em terrible players seen in anything under $6/$12 limit, 6 to 8 bbs per hour is certainly possible.

With "bad" players at $4/$8 limit, you could make $80 an hour with a bankroll of $4800, and you would not really be stretching reality that much (if you can keep the fish coming, and you are actually skilled at the game).

[GeorgeD]

Thanks guys.

Sounds like besides skill it comes down to finding the games with less experienced players. I would think that's easiest in a touristy town like Vegas ........ but then I suppose a really skilled player knows how to look like a sucker while he's reeling it the real suckers. Kind of like a good cover act.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

With "bad" players at $4/$8 limit, you could make $80 an hour with a bankroll of $4800

I call horse poop.

$80/hr at $4-$8 is ridiculously high; only once in my career have I even seen VARIANCE that high, forget having an EV that high.

[BlodiaInc]

Originally Posted by callipygian

I call horse poop.

$80/hr at $4-$8 is ridiculously high; only once in my career have I even seen VARIANCE that high, forget having an EV that high.

I don't know how many times I have to say this... but play online... online is +EV compared to live... no matter how you slice the pie... even if the better players are online, you can still get more hands per hour.

Volume in limit cash games is more important than quality. If you become a decent poker player and can multi-table without losing too much EV from multi-tabling, you stand to make a lot of money online. It's what I do, and it's what any serious pro does. Online limit poker is one of the most consistent gambling incomes out there today AFAIK

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by BlodiaInc

I don't know how many times I have to say this... but play online

The OP asked specifically about live games, but I agree that if the laws of your country allow you to play online, that's the better way to play poker.

[Sir Counts-A-Lot]

Speaking of which I am quite confused on the laws of the US regarding internet poker. I was under the impression all online gambling was illegal but recently I started an account on poker stars to play with play money and discovered you can indeed play with real money. So I deposited some and have been playing super low stakes with actual money. Is this legal? Is it some poker loophole? Why can I do that but I can't play blackjack online. Stupid US and their confusing laws and what the jimineys. Heh heh.