slightly safer progression system

[jaredmt]

Im just wondering what people's opinions are for this. my idea is to wait untill you loose 3 to 5 times in a row (depending on how much money you have) then start doubling what ur previous bet was till u get to 8x minimum. assuming minimum is $5 or $10.

so if i have like $300 and i just lost 5 times in a row. the count isnt good but isnt bad. then i start using progression system till i win, then go back to regular betting. what do you think?

i know it is still possible that i will go bankrupt. but much less likely. i mean what are the chances i will lose like 10+ times in a row assuming i know when to hit/stand/split/double?

if i only go bankrupt like once every 10 times using this then it is worth using IMO cus i could double my bank each time i go to the casino.

[shadroch]

Table minimum is $5.
you lose 5 hands in a row and are down $25.
Now you double your original bet to $10. You lose.
Double to $20 and lose. You are now down $55.
You double again to $40 and win. You are down $15 for the series.
What comes next? You've just won a hand and the chances of winning two in a row are not so hot,so what do you do? Bet big or bet small?
Or suppose you have lost your 6 in a row,have a $20 bet out and need to split. You win one,lose one. Money wise,you broke even for the hand,but where are you in the progression?

If you are looking for a safer progression,Oscars Grind is about as good as it gets.Google it,but read everything,not just the good parts.

[jaredmt]

yes, u will be down after loosing 3 to 5 times in a row, that is expected. but the house should only have about .5 - 1% edge over you on average (im pretty sure). so the point of this is to break that chain. turn 1 of those losses into a win. after you loose a bunch of times in a row, eventually ur luck will kick back in and u'll start gaining. then u start loosing again. when u loose a bunch of times in a row u break the chain again and use progression to turn a loss into a win.

i've been using this on different online games and it hasnt failed me yet, but im not sure if i will use it in a casino. i just wanna know what r the chances of loosing 10+ times in a row. cus if it is like .0001% or something then this could be worth a try

What comes next? You've just won a hand and the chances of winning two in a row are not so hot,so what do you do? Bet big or bet small?

then u go back to minimum betting untill you loose 3 to 5 times in a row again.

this wont give a huge advantage. but if u can turn a loss into a win every like 80 hands then u will give yourself the advantage and win over time. but the question with this technique is: what is the risk of still loosing it all?

edit: remember, im assuming that the person using this betting system is really good at strategy and knows how to count cards and what moves to play. some1 who is clueless would have bad chances with this idea

[shadroch]

Someone who knows how to count cards would have zero use for this.
Most of the gain from card counting is knowing when to raise or lower your bets.

[jaredmt]

Originally Posted by shadroch

Or suppose you have lost your 6 in a row,have a $20 bet out and need to split. You win one,lose one. Money wise,you broke even for the hand,but where are you in the progression?

if there is double/split then go for it, u have good chances. if u win 1, loose 1 then think of that as a push. if u prefer to be less risky then u go with the previous bet on a push, rather than doubling it. thats what i would do if i only had about $300 in the bank.

[jaredmt]

Originally Posted by shadroch

Someone who knows how to count cards would have zero use for this.
Most of the gain from card counting is knowing when to raise or lower your bets.

well i know how to count cards. but im not a pro or anything. this is just an easier less tiring technique to use.

i mean if u just lost like 6 times in a row and the count is at 0 then come on, u've gotta have really good chances of winning within the next 3 hands.

and i would use the TC to determine how much to bet too. this is just like a side-betting strategy i guess

edit: for people who have been playin blackjack a lot: how often would you say you loose more than 8 hands in a row? is there a site where i can find statistics on this?

[blackchipjim]

I don't know of the probabilities of losing 8 hands in a row but it is happend to me with maybe a push inbetween. I've lost alot of hands in a row and finally quit the shoe because of no more money even with a high count. If you count keep counting, if you are tired take a break or do something else but to submit to progression to depression principles is ludicrous. blackchipjim

[jaredmt]

yea most likely i wouldnt try this. but hey, if i find out that the probability of getting more than 8 losses is like once every 10,000 hands then y not? but if it happens like once every 100 hands then forget it

i mean this wouldnt work in Roulette cus even if u loose 2343x in a row ur just as likely to loose again. but i think blackjack is different

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by blackchipjim

I don't know of the probabilities of losing 8 hands in a row but it is happend to me with maybe a push inbetween. I've lost alot of hands in a row and finally quit the shoe because of no more money even with a high count. If you count keep counting, if you are tired take a break or do something else but to submit to progression to depression principles is ludicrous. blackchipjim

I believe the chances of flipping 8 heads in a row is .5 ^8
.5 times itself 8 times.

I can do that
.390625%

[KenSmith]

Originally Posted by jaredmt

edit: for people who have been playin blackjack a lot: how often would you say you loose more than 8 hands in a row? is there a site where i can find statistics on this?

Basic strategy players win roughly 44% of their hands, lose 48%, and push the other 8%. If we throw out the pushes, you get a 52% chance of losing the next win-or-lose decision. That's 44/(44+48).

What are the chances you'll lose the next 8 hands, starting right now? 0.52^8 = 0.005491 or approximately once in 182 tries.

No progression can create a positive game. Instead, just bet with the count and you have a mathematical reason for being ahead in the long run. Any system based on whether your last few hands have been wins or losses is a waste of time and money.