Texas Hold 'Em - Any Two Cards Can Win.

[cardcounter0]

Sometimes low limit games break out into what I call “on/off” games. One hand the entire table limps in, the next hand it is folded around and the blinds chop. Or 6 or 7 players go crazy and it is capped 6-ways preflop, and then on the next hand, folded around to the button, who raises and steals the blinds. On/Off.

Makes it kind of hard for hand selection. Suited connectors in mid position after a limper, they might be nice to play at a weak/passive, everyone else limps in to see the flop table, but if the wind suddenly changes direction and you find yourself getting raised and then re-raised by the tightest player at the table -- not so nice. Are you going to get 9 limpers, or is it going to fold around, and you are heads-up facing a cut-off raise? Tough choices.

Here is a situation that you can think about. You are in the Big Blind, the first player to act preflop raises. He proceeds to get his raise called by the next 5 players. A couple of folds, the small blind folds, and with the action on you, you look at your cards. 9 of Spades, and 5 of Hearts. Good ol' 95o. So do you call the raise?

Your choices:

A) Get up and leave immediately. With so many players seeing every flop, playing any two, and calling anything with anything, even AA gets cracked the majority of the time. This game cannot be beat. Besides, you had to tip the valet $2 to park your car, there is no way you can come out ahead.

B) Fold. Wait for a really good hand and then punish these limping calling stations, when you finally enter the pot with a raise.

C) Call. It is possible for any two cards to win. Maybe that miracle flop will come and 95o will be the best hand.

D) Re-Raise. It will be fun to bluff that huge pot away from 6 players.

Most situations in poker the answer is "it depends", but in this case I think there is a correct answer that can be shown mathematically.

The answer is (C) - Call the raise, and pray for the miracle flop.

Usually, in a UTG raise and multiple caller situation like this, you are up against a big pocket pair, and you have AK or AQ calling, and out of 6 players somebody is overplaying JTs, and a couple of random hands. It is going to take at least two pair at a minimum to take this pot down. So given you need to flop at least two pair or better to stay in the hand:

.0204 Two pair (using both of your pocket cards) - 49/1
.0137 Trips (using one of your pocket cards) - 73/1
.0009 Full house (using both of your pocket cards) - 1087/1
.0001 Quads (using one of your pocket cards) - 9799/1
=====
.0351 - chances of getting two pair or better and continue with hand.

Now sometimes, your two pair is going to get beat with top set, or gets beat on the river by a bigger two pair, straight, flush, etc. But for simplicity let's say the times you continue and get beat balances out with the times AA cannot lay down, or you get raised and re-raised after flopping the nuts.

There are 6 players in for 2 small bets, the small blind has folded for half a bet, your big blind is already in. You are getting 13.5 to 1 to call the raise. So basically that .0351 number means out of 100 times for this situation, 97 times you are going to call the raise, see the flop, and fold. 3 times you hit the flop hard and are going to win a pot (let's throw the .0051 from your .0351 chances of hitting away to add some more padding to the times you hit the flop but still fold later in the hand, and just call it .03).

Let's do some math (although this is kind of like playing "what if" to determine basic strategy) $2/$4 No Fold ‘Em Hold ‘Em Donkey low limit:
97 folds x $4 call of the raise = -$388 down the drain.
3 times you hit a flop with 2 pair or better. You naturally check. UTG raiser bets, the 5 callers do what they do and call (no one folding with that large of a pot for just another $4). You pull the check raise. One guy decides to fold. The Turn, you bet, another folder. The River, you bet, two more folds.

preflop (6 callers + SB) = $25
flop (5 callers of the check raise, 1 limper folds) = $22
turn (4 callers of $4, 1 fold) = $16
river (2 callers, 2 folds) = $8
=====
$71 - $4 rake - $1 dealer toke = $66 profit.

3 x $66 = $198 - $388 for the 97 folds when you miss = -$190 loss playing "how can you call with that crap" 9 of Spades, and 5 of Hearts.

So as you can see, calling with any two unsuited in this situation results in a loss of $190 per 100 hands – so calling with any two is obviously the thing to do.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

So as you can see, calling with any two unsuited in this situation results in a loss of $190 per 100 hands – so calling with any two is obviously the thing to do.

... when you're in the Big Blind and already have $2/hand in. This also implies you should not be playing any two from the small blind or any other hand.

Assuming this is a continuation of the other thread (whose negative points I won't bring up unless you do), this also suggests a way to squeeze an extra $0.10 per big blind out of standard play - which, at 40 hands per hour, is equal to a $0.40 increase in hourly win rate, or 0.1 BB/hr, over whatever tight-aggressive play.

[cardcounter0]

This also implies you should not be playing any two from the small blind or any other hand.

That is probably correct. But you can play any two SUITED from the small blind in a similar situation, or you can play any two suited from the big blind with only 5 callers instead of 6 as in this situation.

So a couple of situations that add a few tenth's of a BB to the old win rate, profit that a standard play 15% of your hands "tight" player is leaving on the table.

[ChefJJ]

Thanks for answering your own quiz question in the same post. Sounds like you're just trying to show someone up...be bigger than that. It's the internet.

good luck

[cardcounter0]

I gave my answer or opinion with analysis to a common low limit $2/$4 hold em situation: You are in the big blind with complete trash, and over half the table has called a preflop raise.

Do you agree? Disagree?

I think if you accept my answer, it could apply to other situations also. ie: the entire table shows a tendency to never fold and just call to a preflop raise. If someone raises preflop in early position, you might consider also calling with very marginal hands, simply because you know you are going to end up with 10:1 odds and no chance of someone 3-betting.

Again, a typical "tight" player might be throwing away potentially profitable hands, failing to take into account the no-fold-em table's implied odds.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

If someone raises preflop in early position, you might consider also calling with very marginal hands, simply because you know you are going to end up with 10:1 odds

10:3 odds - two of the units that were put in pre-flop would have been yours and put in after the decision has been made. You have to factor that into the decision when deciding whether to call preflop at all.

It's true that given you have already called pre-flop, you have tremendous odds on calling/betting/raising from that point forward. What's not true is that it justifies playing any two cards preflop. Unless you define "very marginal hands", there's no way to tell what you really mean. Are you talking ATo, 98o, or 73o?

[cardcounter0]

Originally Posted by callipygian

10:3 odds - two of the units that were put in pre-flop would have been yours and put in after the decision has been made. You have to factor that into the decision when deciding whether to call preflop at all.?

If the entire table is likely to call a raise, and they all do call the raise, then using common terminology you are getting 10:1 for your money. 10 for 1 or 9 to 1. Unless you are playing in California, where it is more common for a full table to be 9 handed. Then you would be getting 9 for 1 or 8 to 1. (and you know you will be getting at least 10 more units in the pot post flop, as they are all going to at least call a bet there too.)

10:3 is kind of an "interesting" way to look at it, I guess when they say "blackjack pays 3:2" that really isn't true either, because you really don't have to play at all.

What's not true is that it justifies playing any two cards preflop.

Ahhh... Very true my obtuse little grasshopper. Maybe that is why I said "playing very mariginal hands" instead of "playing any two cards". Of course, you will take the phrase "very mariginal" to mean "any two cards" and try to argue that I am wrong because I am talking about "any two cards" ... be my guest. Although that is kind of unreasonable don't you think? I said "Marginal". It makes you wonder how wide the Margins are if they include ALL cards. I even qualifyied the width of the Margins ... VERY MARGINAL.

Unless you define "very marginal hands", there's no way to tell what you really mean.

Yes, I failed to post an EXACT hand range. Care to give it a shot? Maybe posting a hand range of profitable calling hands for this situation would be more productive instead of quibbling over semantics, don't you think? Of course such an EXACTITUDE would be impossible, as you would have to factor in exactly how likely it is the whole table will call, and the unlikelyhood of not running into a 3-bettor.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

I guess when they say "blackjack pays 3:2" that really isn't true either, because you really don't have to play at all.

3 = the amount you win when you win
2 = the amount you lose when you lose

3:2

9 people call with x bets each = 9x units you win if you win
you call with x bets = 1x units you lose if you lose

9:1

5 people with 2 bets each = 10 units you win if you win
you call 2 bets = 2 units you put in preflop if you lose
you bet at least 1 unit on the flop = 1 unit you bet on the flop

10:3

It did just occur to me, though, that when you said 10:1 I automatically assumed that it meant the last scenario - 5 people calling a raise, you calling with 2 preflop, and that you were getting 10:1 on your post-flop bet. However, based on your response, I think you may still be talking pre-flop, in which case you're actually saying that EVERYONE at the table calls a preflop raise (which would give you 9:1, not 10:1, but we'll let that slide as general dumbassery along the lines of "1 BB in $4/$8 is $16").

If that is what you meant, I certainly agree that you're getting 9:1 odds - what I question is how often that situation occurs. Even in the loosest, most passive games, you rarely get more than 8 to the flop without raises. You're making assumptions based on 10 to the flop including a preflop raise! That really doesn't need any debunking, other than "anyone who's ever played a hand of LLHE is at you right now."

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

Yes, I failed to post an EXACT hand range. Care to give it a shot? Maybe posting a hand range of profitable calling hands for this situation would be more productive instead of quibbling over semantics, don't you think?

Post it then - this is your show-off thread, not mine.

Let's see the "very marginal" hands you advocate playing.

It will be good for a laugh, I'm sure. You should have stuck with your first post, it was a good example of what you know.

For the record, post the number of hours you've spent playing LLHE in your lifetime. You are free to define LL however you like, just be unambiguous.

[cardcounter0]

Originally Posted by callipygian

I haven't played $2/$4 anywhere in the past 8 years

Are you really qualified to comment on this thread? Actually, in low limit hold em being played THIS CENTURY, there is a tendency for your average donkey table to be MORE LIKELY to have 10 to a flop when there is a preflop raise.

It seems it is almost a threat to their manhood, or they just love the thrill of cracking somebodies Aces, but a lot of players will call a raise with cards they would normally fold if the pot was unraised.

If you had played low limit hold em this decade, weren't a 100 hour n00b, or was actually skilled enough to know what was going on at the table, you would notice this.

I guess your inability to grasp the concept of someone raising in early position, and you -- later to act -- realizing that the whole table is going to call that raise, can count on getting 10 for 1 odds -- Your almost autistic ability to get distracted with insignificent minuta, would make this an impossible task. I'll just chalk it up to general dumbassery on your part.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

Are you really qualified to comment on this thread?

Right now, the experience that I've posted is 33x what you've posted. Ignoring my direct question about how much LLHE you've played doesn't help the impression that you actually have played less than I have.

4th attempt: How much LLHE have you played? (You may define LLHE as you wish)

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

Actually, in low limit hold em being played THIS CENTURY, there is a tendency for your average donkey table to be MORE LIKELY to have 10 to a flop when there is a preflop raise.

More likely than what?

Stop with the subjective measures - start posting some objective measures. How many hands per hour do you see a pre-flop raise where all 10 people play?

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

I'll just chalk it up to general dumbassery on your part.

Can't even come up with your own insults?

Callipygian:
- Knows what a big bet in $4/$8 is.
- Knows that LLHE players are loose, not tight.
- Knows that 10:1 refers to 10 to 1, not 10 for 1.
- Thinks people can make 1-2 BB/hr from LLHE, maybe 3 BB/hr if advanced plays are made.

Cardcounter0:
- Thinks that a big bet in $4/$8 is $16, and told callipygian to "get a grip" if he thought otherwise.
- Claims that LLHE players are tight, so that you have to play loose to beat them, and thinks callipygian doesn't "even have the basic terminology of the game down".
- Explained how 10:1 means 10 for 1, not 10 to 1, and cited 3:2 blackjacks as an example.
- Claims people can make 10 BB/hr from LLHE, and posted 3 hours of charity game play one weekend as proof. P.S. He brought a girl to the event, did he mention that?
- Starts a new thread where he posts a 0.1 BB/hr play in order to demonstrate how one can "crush" a LLHE game for 10 BB/hr.

I don't think I will be taking any advice from you.