Opinions wanted on style I have been playing for a year

[grdred944]

Critical but civil responses encouraged.

For about a year I have played this style for 4-6 days a week and I have been running about 70% winning sessions.

- Only play DD games
- Two bets (for demonstration purposes we will say, $25 and $50)
- First deal of a new deck bet $25
- If I win I keep betting $50 until I lose. I'll split or double but that is it.
- Once I lose, I go back to $25 and only bet $25 each hand through the end of the shoe.
- I religiously stick to basic play strategy.
- I stick to win/loss stops for each session.

I've never been a system guy. I used to count cards in AC and Vegas going back to the 80's but had a successful life away from the tables and enjoyed the casino life (read: comps) too much to get wrapped up in winning. When I moved to Vegas in 2004 it was to play poker and blackjack stayed a casual pursuit. I started dabbling with a 'system' more so for my wife to use since she had zero discipline. Now she makes money playing this way (she plays 2 sessions for every 10 I play) and runs the same rate for winning sessions as I do. A few locals I know have tried it as well and, while I think they find it tedious, they have reported that it has been profitable.

I'm not writing this to tout it as some great winning strategy. I shake my head when I try to do the math on it. But, after doing it for a year, it works for me. For me the real key is the stop-loss number for each session. If I had let that fluctuate I feel I might have different results. Some sessions have lasted 30-45 minutes and others 5-6 hours but remaining disciplined works. Someone who would want to put in 8 hours a day at the table regardless of outcome would not want to try this.

I am very interested in comments from anyone. I'm mainly interested in the math on this and for something other than being told I have had a lucky year. I know it has been lucky but why is this style of play not going to hold up? That is what I think the math majors on this board can assist with -- assistance that is appreciated.

[cardcounter0]

"I used to count cards in AC and Vegas going back to the 80s"

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by grdred944

Critical but civil responses encouraged.

For about a year I have played this style for 4-6 days a week and I have been running about 70% winning sessions.

- Only play DD games

I assume you have the proper BS for DD games.
- Two bets (for demonstration purposes we will say, $25 and $50)
- First deal of a new deck bet $25

As you always have a disadvantage on a fresh deck,good call


- If I win I keep betting $50 until I lose. I'll split or double but that is it.

Okay,nothing wrong that I see

- Once I lose, I go back to $25 and only bet $25 each hand through the end of the shoe.

Okay,but you may be dropping and raising bets at the wrong time countwise.


- I religiously stick to basic play strategy.

BS should change based on the count,but not terrible.


- I stick to win/loss stops for each session.

Admirable,but you may be leaving money on the table.



I've never been a system guy. I used to count cards in AC and Vegas going back to the 80's but had a successful life away from the tables and enjoyed the casino life (read: comps) too much to get wrapped up in winning. When I moved to Vegas in 2004 it was to play poker and blackjack stayed a casual pursuit. I started dabbling with a 'system' more so for my wife to use since she had zero discipline. Now she makes money playing this way (she plays 2 sessions for every 10 I play) and runs the same rate for winning sessions as I do. A few locals I know have tried it as well and, while I think they find it tedious, they have reported that it has been profitable.

I'm not writing this to tout it as some great winning strategy. I shake my head when I try to do the math on it. But, after doing it for a year, it works for me. For me the real key is the stop-loss number for each session. If I had let that fluctuate I feel I might have different results. Some sessions have lasted 30-45 minutes and others 5-6 hours but remaining disciplined works. Someone who would want to put in 8 hours a day at the table regardless of outcome would not want to try this.

I am very interested in comments from anyone. I'm mainly interested in the math on this and for something other than being told I have had a lucky year. I know it has been lucky but why is this style of play not going to hold up? That is what I think the math majors on this board can assist with -- assistance that is appreciated.

If you stop win is $250,and your stop-loss is $500, you'd better be winning 70%.
Nothing you have said gives you any sort of advantage. You may be ahead,but you aren't playing with any sort of advantage.
Before we go on,why don't you explain what part of your system will allow you to overcome the house edge long-term?

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by grdred944

I stick to win/loss stops for each session.

What are these stop limits? You can normalize to $25 bets if that makes things clearer.

Originally Posted by grdred944

I have been running about 70% winning sessions.

What is your average win when you win? And what is your average loss when you lose?

Win rate only means something when you lose the same amount that you win. The Martingale system with a sufficiently high bankroll will produce win rates of 99% - it's just that the average win is 1 unit and the average loss is 100+ units.

[EasyRhino]

Okay, the base method (start at $25, on win increase to $50, on loss decrease to $25) has VERY SLIGHT elements of a positive progression system. This would have a tiny tendency to encourage more, smaller losses, and fewer, larger, wins.

However, the stops that you play with will have a bigger effect.

IF the stops are equal amounts, then they will just shorten the amount of time that you play. (and this is a good thing when you're playing at a disadvantage).

If the stops are dissimilar, then they will tend to result in more sessions the tighter allotment.

None of it affects the house edge.

[jay28]

Why don't you just switch to the martingale systems, you can make it work 100% of the time absolutely guaranteed, just by doing two things:-

1. Find a game with an unlimited table max

2. Get yourself an infinite BR.

Works every time - good luck!

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by grdred944

Critical but civil responses encouraged.

For about a year I have played this style for 4-6 days a week and I have been running about 70% winning sessions.

- Only play DD games
- Two bets (for demonstration purposes we will say, $25 and $50)
- First deal of a new deck bet $25
- If I win I keep betting $50 until I lose. I'll split or double but that is it.
- Once I lose, I go back to $25 and only bet $25 each hand through the end of the shoe.
- I religiously stick to basic play strategy.
- I stick to win/loss stops for each session.

I've never been a system guy. I used to count cards in AC and Vegas going back to the 80's but had a successful life away from the tables and enjoyed the casino life (read: comps) too much to get wrapped up in winning. When I moved to Vegas in 2004 it was to play poker and blackjack stayed a casual pursuit. I started dabbling with a 'system' more so for my wife to use since she had zero discipline. Now she makes money playing this way (she plays 2 sessions for every 10 I play) and runs the same rate for winning sessions as I do. A few locals I know have tried it as well and, while I think they find it tedious, they have reported that it has been profitable.

I'm not writing this to tout it as some great winning strategy. I shake my head when I try to do the math on it. But, after doing it for a year, it works for me. For me the real key is the stop-loss number for each session. If I had let that fluctuate I feel I might have different results. Some sessions have lasted 30-45 minutes and others 5-6 hours but remaining disciplined works. Someone who would want to put in 8 hours a day at the table regardless of outcome would not want to try this.

I am very interested in comments from anyone. I'm mainly interested in the math on this and for something other than being told I have had a lucky year. I know it has been lucky but why is this style of play not going to hold up? That is what I think the math majors on this board can assist with -- assistance that is appreciated.

well i think your describing a progression of some sort or another. and you asked about the math of this. i can't provide the math but i know there is a mathematical proof floating around 'out there' that proves that no betting system can beat a game for which the house holds an advantage.
that said i'd say your system needs a hedge against the almost certain prospect of ruin that lies ahead. you know the thing about a progression is that yeah maybe you win 70% of the time but you just can't know when those 30% or so loss's are going to come. so trying to limit your loss's by stop loss strategies only breaks up your loss's in small chunks that in the final analysis add up to big loss's. and that tiny percentage of losing sessions compared to the large percentage of winning sessions is saddled with the unfortunate fact that the small number of losing sessions tend to have such large loss's compared to a large number of much smaller wins that in the end your losing amounts add up to way, way more than your winning amounts.
you stated that you used to count in AC. your ability to count and wreak an advantage could be your hedge against the looming prospect of ruin. if you watch your bottom line as far as your betting system you can gauge the amount lost against the prospects of winning that amount over time with a real AP approach.
finally i'd just say that IMHO (and this isn't meant as advice just a word to the wise) your 'system' seems to rigid, to recursive. the thing is that you want to fashion your approach after (if your so inclined as to gamble some) is to only expose a small amount of your money to (high level) risks that may pay off big while exposing the majority of your money to very low level or no level of risks even though the pay off may be small.
not saying i know how to do that, but just maybe ask your self if your system can do that.

[grdred944]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

"I used to count cards in AC and Vegas going back to the 80s"

You find this humorous, why? Do you not feel that there are hundreds if not thousands of people who have tried this and done this over the years without having written a book?

Did I write anything about returns? No, I simply pointed out that I have been around and have played for going on three decades. Not all of us are experts such as yourself or have screenames that try to leave readers with the belief that we are as your screen name claims you to be -- a card counter.

How pathetic that this is the best you can come up with to fill space and add to your message count.

[grdred944]

Originally Posted by shadroch

If you stop win is $250,and your stop-loss is $500, you'd better be winning 70%.
Nothing you have said gives you any sort of advantage. You may be ahead,but you aren't playing with any sort of advantage.
Before we go on,why don't you explain what part of your system will allow you to overcome the house edge long-term?

I either win or lose the same number. Sometimes it is a real grind to get to that win number and 30-35% of the time I don't before I hit the loss target.

I have no explaination on how to overcome the house edge. I have always been a firm believer that the only possible way is to count. That is one reason why I posted my original message. I was hoping for someone to give me the math on how bad this is. I'm not hooked on this as a way to play -- I am just sharing with the board that this is one way that has worked for the past year.

[grdred944]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

well i think your describing a progression of some sort or another. and you asked about the math of this. i can't provide the math but i know there is a mathematical proof floating around 'out there' that proves that no betting system can beat a game for which the house holds an advantage.
that said i'd say your system needs a hedge against the almost certain prospect of ruin that lies ahead. you know the thing about a progression is that yeah maybe you win 70% of the time but you just can't know when those 30% or so loss's are going to come. so trying to limit your loss's by stop loss strategies only breaks up your loss's in small chunks that in the final analysis add up to big loss's. and that tiny percentage of losing sessions compared to the large percentage of winning sessions is saddled with the unfortunate fact that the small number of losing sessions tend to have such large loss's compared to a large number of much smaller wins that in the end your losing amounts add up to way, way more than your winning amounts.
you stated that you used to count in AC. your ability to count and wreak an advantage could be your hedge against the looming prospect of ruin. if you watch your bottom line as far as your betting system you can gauge the amount lost against the prospects of winning that amount over time with a real AP approach.
finally i'd just say that IMHO (and this isn't meant as advice just a word to the wise) your 'system' seems to rigid, to recursive. the thing is that you want to fashion your approach after (if your so inclined as to gamble some) is to only expose a small amount of your money to (high level) risks that may pay off big while exposing the majority of your money to very low level or no level of risks even though the pay off may be small.
not saying i know how to do that, but just maybe ask your self if your system can do that.

Thanks! I really appreciate your comments and I know that you are spot-on. Everyone I have spoken to in Vegas has echoed your view that it is too rigid and also has warned me about the inevitible swing. I can see how both of those will become negative factors at some point.