To wong or not to wong...

[DonR]

Hi everybody:

Just about a week or so ago I almost accidentally ran into this forum. I find it very good and informative for any BJ player, novice or advanced.

I've been playing BJ for about 5-6 years, pretty strictly following the basic strategy and I believe that helped me to almost break even, in the long run. I am definitely on the losing end, but by just a very small margin. I think that's about the best that BS can do (play for fun, without losing your shirt).

Recently, I finally decided to try learning card counting and see if that can win me a few more bucks. I am still a pretty poor counter (around 30 seconds per deck, at home). In the casino environment, based on my experience, this means that I can keep pace and keep the count with slower dealers, but when a fast dealer comes to the table, I usually get lost and am forced to revert to BS only. Since I am not confident enough yet, my spreads are pretty symbolic (1-3 maybe). Basically, I bet flat whenever the TC is lower than +2, at +2 I go with 1.5 or 2 units, and at higher counts (+4 or higher), I increase my bet to about 3 units. It also depends on what the table min is; I can feel more adventurous and increase my bet from $5 to $15 or $20, but if I play at a $15 or $25 table, then I'm usually not that courageous, and maybe only double my bet, even if the count is calling for more.

I'm in Canada and the problem is that I only have 4 or 5 casinos I can go to and the distance between these is a big factor. So, on any given day, I'm pretty much stuck with the casino of my choice for that day. Typically, there are not too many BJ tables that I can choose from (the places are crowded), and most of the time a lot of seats are taken. So, usually, rather than being able to select a "good" table, I have to take any available seat at any table.

Now, the question about wonging, mostly wonging out. I have already witnessed quite a few times that when the count is not favorable (-2, or lower), I lose most hands, as expected. So, obviously, it would be rather useful to wong out, or sit out for the rest of that shoe. But under all the above mentioned circumstances, if I get up and leave, I might not get another open spot at another table. I was thinking of taking a washroom break maybe, when the count is bad, but if I start doing it on a regular basis, that's gonna be pretty easy to spot.

Any ideas guys? I understand that wonging out might not be an option for me. Do I just play through the low counts, betting minimum and hoping for the best, and try to hit it harder in the + count territory.

[ThodorisK]

Wonging is not an option? Well, the other option is losing.

If you are scared of being banned, stop playing and come back with a large bankroll, so that you will have made money when you get banned.

But your 1-3 spread is gambling, you will lose if not wonging.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by DonR

Any ideas guys? I understand that wonging out might not be an option for me. Do I just play through the low counts, betting minimum and hoping for the best, and try to hit it harder in the + count territory.

There are two things you can ustilize simultaneously -
1) Use the cellphone ploy to step out without losing the seat., and
2) Try getting away with betting every other hand during negative counts, effectively doubling your spread. zg

[DonR]

Originally Posted by ThodorisK

But your 1-3 spread is gambling, you will lose if not wonging.

Does this mean that wider spreads will compensate for no wonging, at least to some extent? It might be bad for my blood pressure, but if that's the right way to do it, so be it, I guess

Originally Posted by zengrifter

There are two things you can ustilize simultaneously -
1) Use the cellphone ploy to step out without losing the seat., and
2) Try getting away with betting every other hand during negative counts, effectively doubling your spread. zg

Yes, I considered skipping a hand or two, when the count is negative. The thing I see as a small problem with that is the fact that negative TC's are created as a result of a lot of face cards being dealt. My point is that during the creation of these negative counts, chances are you might actually be winning a few hands. So now, after possibly winning some hands, you decide to sit out a hand or two. Wouldn't that draw attention? What is your experience?

Thank you for replying, guys.

[ThodorisK]

Man, if you are rich so that you can afford the spread, why card count at all? I never bet when there is no edge. I wouldnt do it unless the minimoum bet was 1 euro and I could afford for my average big bet to be 50 euros. That's for 6 decks and over. Now for 4 decks, I donno, perhaps 1 to 30. Otherwise too much risk for petty profits. If you raise your bets when the count is positive, management will soon know you are counting anyway, so wonging is not more dangerous that management will spot your counting. And if the problem is that all 7 boxes will be covered, then there is no solution. Dont they have higher limit tables with fewer players?

But if you keep wonging, other players will keep nagging because you open and close boxes. But if you win much, you will get banned anyway, so just ignore the morons who think the reason of their losses is opening and closing boxes. Tell them to go to hell too, dont bear insults just to do not get banned. As long as you dont win much, it is very unlikely that they will ban you. That's why you must have a big bankroll otherwise it's useless. And if you have a big bankroll, it is again better to wong than keeping a box open. Because when you bet at least 100 euros, other players shut it up and dont complain "why you open and close boxes". These idiots who play it rough guys dont have the guts to complain about the same thing to the rich.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by DonR

Does this mean that wider spreads will compensate for no wonging, at least to some extent? It might be bad for my blood pressure, but if that's the right way to do it, so be it, I guess.

I detect some confusion. Answer this - why would an increased spread cause your blood pressure to rise? zg

[DonR]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

I detect some confusion. Answer this - why would an increased spread cause your blood pressure to rise? zg

Well, let's say I'm playing at a $15 table, which means I'm betting that amount each hand, while the count is neutral. As the count increases, I'm supposed to increase my bets, according to my spread. Now, if I am to use a wider spread (1:8, 1:12, or more), that would mean I'd have to bet a significantly larger amount of money every hand, with high TC. At very high TC values, I might have to hit it with $120, $180, or more. And even though I understand why my chances of winning a hand or two are now mathematically better, the so much increased betting amount is obviously going to make me feel more nervous, because I can still lose those hands. It is gambling, after all. That's all I meant about the blood pressure.

What is your opinion about using the TC mainly to adjust your basic strategy and not so much increase the original bet (keep the spread rather low, maybe 1 to 3, or 4)? Would this have any chance of success in the long run?

With BS alone and flat betting, which I've played for the last 5-6 years, I'm obviously still on the losing end, not by much, but still losing. And that's exactly what's to be expected, based on the advantage that the house has. I'm trying to slightly switch it over to my favor, so that in the long run I am in the plus territory. Do you think that can be achieved without very wide betting spread?

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by DonR

Well, let's say I'm playing at a $15 table, which means I'm betting that amount each hand, while the count is neutral. As the count increases, I'm supposed to increase my bets, according to my spread. Now, if I am to use a wider spread (1:8, 1:12, or more), that would mean I'd have to bet a significantly larger amount of money every hand, with high TC. At very high TC values, I might have to hit it with $120, $180, or more. And even though I understand why my chances of winning a hand or two are now mathematically better, the so much increased betting amount is obviously going to make me feel more nervous, because I can still lose those hands. It is gambling, after all. That's all I meant about the blood pressure.

Okay, got it. YES your confusion is a common one: A true AP card-counter ALWAYS calcs spread from the top down. Your max bet size is a function of your BR. For example 1% is the maxBet of many counters - that amount is calc'd FIRST, then the min and incremental bets from that.

What is your opinion about using the TC mainly to adjust your basic strategy and not so much increase the original bet (keep the spread rather low, maybe 1 to 3, or 4)? Would this have any chance of success in the long run?

No, not in a 6D+ game UNLESS one is religiously avoiding -EV counts and only playing +EV counts (ie, "wonging")

With BS alone and flat betting, which I've played for the last 5-6 years, I'm obviously still on the losing end, not by much, but still losing. And that's exactly what's to be expected, based on the advantage that the house has. I'm trying to slightly switch it over to my favor, so that in the long run I am in the plus territory. Do you think that can be achieved without very wide betting spread?

ONLY IF, as a slightly advanced casual player you can work the comps into the overall equation - a 1-4 spread play-all 6D game, notwithstanding ruless variation, combined with expert COMP-counting would be profitable. zg

[GeorgeD]

Originally Posted by DonR

Now, the question about wonging, mostly wonging out. I have already witnessed quite a few times that when the count is not favorable (-2, or lower), I lose most hands, as expected. So, obviously, it would be rather useful to wong out, or sit out for the rest of that shoe. But under all the above mentioned circumstances, if I get up and leave, I might not get another open spot at another table. I was thinking of taking a washroom break maybe, when the count is bad, but if I start doing it on a regular basis, that's gonna be pretty easy to spot.

Any ideas guys? I understand that wonging out might not be an option for me. Do I just play through the low counts, betting minimum and hoping for the best, and try to hit it harder in the + count territory.

When count is down take a cell phone call. If casino "no smoking" tell dealer you're going out for a smoke, tell him you need some air, bathroom breaks are good and not noticed unless really excessive... especially if drinking (get soda water with swizzle from bar, get another on BR breaks). Some dealers will hold your seat for a meal if you're not too long (tips help). I've seen people sit in a seat not playing or chatting to a friend and the dealers rarely say anything unless a player comes along and asks. If one asks you for the spot say "sorry, I'm still playing". Push a small bet out next hand if you have to.

[sagefr0g]

What is your opinion about using the TC mainly to adjust your basic strategy and not so much increase the original bet (keep the spread rather low, maybe 1 to 3, or 4)? Would this have any chance of success in the long run?

Originally Posted by zengrifter

...
No, not in a 6D+ game UNLESS one is religiously avoiding -EV counts and only playing +EV counts (ie, "wonging")
.. zg

this is where bad little soldiers can effectively wong using unacceptable methods:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...&postcount=134

effectively doin the wrong thing at the right time. as in the Cincinnati Kid: