The Lose Less Progression

[picasso]

Here is my system, for me so far it isn’t a loser, I call it: the lose less progression.

Where I play the house advantage is .69% if I play perfect basic strategy (well, I play an almost perfect basic strategy; I haven’t memorised all multiple hands of 16 vs 10, have you?)

Anyway, the house advantage is very small, but it is still there. I figure if I could lose less money than the flat better, I would be well off and I would challenge the house advantage. Can it be done without counting? Yes and no. My negative progression aims at loosing less money, not winning; here it is:

(10$ table, DAS, H17, 8 decks, no surrender, peek, max bet 500$)

10-10-11-12-15-20-30-50-90-170-330

Anytime the progression goes up and you win, you go back to minimum bet. Notice (do the arithmetic) anytime you win when the progression goes up, you lose less money than the flat better. Say you win at 11$, you have lost 9$; the flat better has lost 10. Double or split according to basic strategy, but if you have a small bankroll, you need not double, but splitting with the no DAS rule would be a good defensive measure.

How often do you lose 11 hands in a row excluding pushes? It will happen, sometime in someone’s lifetime. Again, my progression is called LOSE LESS, not win more.

Try it, good luck and have fun!

[shadroch]

I'm not sure what you consider a lifetime,but the chances of losing eleven decisions in a row are a heck of a lot shorter than " once in a lifetime".
I assume you consider a double down loss as two losses,not that it really matters.
As the idea of your progression is to " LOSE LESS", then simply flat betting the table minimum and playing near perfect BS will work much better.
Just for the record,almost every serious BJ player has BS down 100%( including the various 16 vs 10 multiple hands).

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by picasso

How often do you lose 11 hands in a row excluding pushes? It will happen, sometime in someone’s lifetime. Again, my progression is called LOSE LESS, not win more.

Try it, good luck and have fun!

To answer your question: You should have statistically one losing streak of 10 or more hands in less than 24 hours of table time. So if you play 250 hours in a year, losing 10 or more should happen to you about 10 times per year.
Personally, I have stated here before that I have had 3 streaks that I am sure were over 20 straight losses, the last one if you count losing a double or split as 2 hands would have been about 30 straight.
So, you do not lose 11 in a row all that often but you do lose it often enough to wipe out anyone who plays this kind of progression long enough. Many small wins, followed by that moster loss that more than wipes it all out.

ihate17

[N&B]

Fortuneately in both instances for me I was still ahead after 2 vastly separated strings of 12 in a row. I think I play less than most report here. So I've lost 11-in-a-row or more twice. And I do consider myself unfortunate considering the # of hands played. Each of the strings netted a loss of 18 and 17 units respectively time-wise. (The power of keeping a journal !)

[picasso]

I took out my little pocket calculator out and figured that losing 11 in a row, excluding pushes, should happen once every 3,360 hands of play. I play, at most, 4hrs a month. At 30 hands per hour, I should lose 11 in a row every 2 years and 4 months. I may be unlucky and lose 11 straight tomorrow morning and tomorrow night! So far, the system has been good to me; I either make a small profit (100$ or less) or break even. Maybe my progression isn't responsible at all, it may all be «chance».

Nevertheless, I play my progression knowing very well progressions shouldn’t work. I've used it on Casino Verité and lost 11 consecutive hands, but by the time it happened, my profits outweighed my losses.

I will not quit my day job!

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by picasso

I took out my little pocket calculator out and figured that losing 11 in a row, excluding pushes, should happen once every 3,360 hands of play.

I get 0.53^11 = 1,022 hands to lose 11 times. That's about once every 8.5 months using your numbers. Also, be aware of the fact that your average bet is much higher than 1 unit because of splits, doubles and your bet spread so you only need to lose about 7 hands before you lose 11 units. That brings the odds down to about 0.53^7 = 0.0122 = 1-in-82 hands. That's more than once every three hours using your numbers. You've been lucky but the odds will catch up to you.

-Sonny-

[picasso]

Thanks for your feedback! I count a lost double or a split to be just one loss. Since a player is supposed to win most doubles, money won therein should more than compensate for the ones you will lose, but then again, I have seen nights where I couldn't win any, even 11 vs 6! Like I mentioned in my first post, you need not double within the progression, but you would win less money not doing so.

Remember, the progression has to lose 11 consecutive hands (not units) before going bust.

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by picasso

I took out my little pocket calculator out and figured that losing 11 in a row, excluding pushes, should happen once every 3,360 hands of play. I play, at most, 4hrs a month. At 30 hands per hour, I should lose 11 in a row every 2 years and 4 months. I may be unlucky and lose 11 straight tomorrow morning and tomorrow night! So far, the system has been good to me; I either make a small profit (100$ or less) or break even. Maybe my progression isn't responsible at all, it may all be «chance».

Nevertheless, I play my progression knowing very well progressions shouldn’t work. I've used it on Casino Verité and lost 11 consecutive hands, but by the time it happened, my profits outweighed my losses.

I will not quit my day job!

You have loads of experience available to you on this board but can chose to ignore it if you wish, you did post to the proper voo-doo board.
Most people will calculate hands per hour at a fairly crowded and slow table at 60 or so hands per hour. Perhaps your tables are always full and the players and dealers very slow and then 30 hands per hour is really possible. All of that really does not matter in your case because your blackjack life is simply one long session.
At just 4 hrs or 120 hands per month, you will get your beating of 11 in a row on the average of once in 9 months and not every 4 years as you mentioned.
But what really matters is that it is a losing system and you posted on a site where people are helping others with winning systems.

My guess is you posted here for feedback and you got it. Use it or ignore it.

ihate17

[picasso]

Originally Posted by ihate17

You have loads of experience available to you on this board but can chose to ignore it if you wish, you did post to the proper voo-doo board.
Most people will calculate hands per hour at a fairly crowded and slow table at 60 or so hands per hour. Perhaps your tables are always full and the players and dealers very slow and then 30 hands per hour is really possible. All of that really does not matter in your case because your blackjack life is simply one long session.
At just 4 hrs or 120 hands per month, you will get your beating of 11 in a row on the average of once in 9 months and not every 4 years as you mentioned.
But what really matters is that it is a losing system and you posted on a site where people are helping others with winning systems.

My guess is you posted here for feedback and you got it. Use it or ignore it.

ihate17

Yes, my table is really slow, always full, people constantly coming and going, asking for change...and yes most croupier are slow. I agree, my blackjack life is really one long consecutive session.

You misread, 2 years-4 months not 4 years.

If people here are trying to help each other out with winning systems, my guess is that they shouldn’t be on a forum called «voodoo betting strategies»

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by picasso

If people here are trying to help each other out with winning systems, my guess is that they shouldn’t be on a forum called «voodoo betting strategies»

But YOU did choose the correct forum for your post and we respect you for it. zg