Stop Limits

Stop Limits, ( how much money you can lose, or how many hands do you lose before you end the session ). I have read very little on this message board concerning this very important part of the game strategy. So I am going to share my system, and would like your feedback.

1 and 2 deck I stop after 4 consecutive losses
6 deck I stop after 5 consecutive losses

All stop limits are back to back losses, push's do not count, and stop limits are the same if I win or lose. I will also stop if I have lost 50% of my buy-in, or lose the first three hands of any session. As simple as this sounds having the discipline to stick to my stops limits is the hardest part, accepting the fact that the cards have turned against me and leaving the table after I have won is difficult. In the past I would take my buy-in amount of chips and put them in my pocket after I was up to make sure I did not lose them, I have improved enough to not do that anymore.

There is no scientific or math viability to it. It may prevent you from going on tilt or something, but aside from that it has no worth or basis.

Further, if you count and have the advantage, such a stop-limit will reduce your hourly EV. zg

This has come up before and from my standpoint, other than when in Vegas, it isn't practical for me to have other than BR limitations when playing. With the exclusion of the Oklahoma tables, it is just too far to drive...we're talking about an overnight trip. To get there and quit after losing x-number of hands or after winning a certain amount would leave me with nothing to do but stare at the slot machines. Oh, I've sometimes changed tables at AmeriStar but overall, the only time limits have done me any good at all is when I just walk away. (btw....Oklahoma is even worse since they have only two tables...usually have only one open and a waiting list of a dozen people waiting to play!)

In Vegas, I can set some limits. There's plenty to do other than just grind out BJ sessions. Free street performers, shows, just people watching...whatever. Not so locally for me. As for the limits, it's arbitrary. Depends on how many days are left that I have to budget BR to cover...how much I've won/lost on previous days...intangibles that figure in as well as actual money available to risk. Not an exact science.

Like Zg says if you count and have the edge a stop loss will reduce your hourly EV. Think in terms of blackjack as a never ending game, the longer you play the more you will make. The more you play over time the law of large numbers will settle on your percentage edge over the game.

However I do have a couple of stop losses that I use. The first one is mental. If I find I'm starting to lose my concentration at the table and I am getting sloppy than I either take a break and get something to eat or I go home because perhaps my counting was off today. The second one is monetary. I go home anytime I lose 5% of my total bankroll. The reason I've chosen 5% is because I've learned through investing to cut your losses short. At this point I've taken a bloody nose, but still have more than sufficient funds to come back and play another day. 5% also gives me enough breathing room most of the time to come back after starting off down. I'm also able to sleep at night without worrying about losing that sum of money.

Ultimately you must find an amount that you are comfortable with yet still allows you to play through the up and down swings of the game. Another thing to think about is your risk of ruin which should help decide your comfort level. I come from the investment field and would suggest never risking more than 2% of your bankroll on anyone investment because some times you can't get out at your designated stops because the markets are moving too fast and blow by your stop loss. You don't have this concern in blackjack as your losses are fixed.

I think what he means is just changing tables or taking a breather after the loss limit. But that approach has no statistical validity. zg

Thankyou for your replies
When reaching my stop limit means I end that session, color-up, and go find another table and start again. I incorrectly assumed that everyone used stop limits that they incorporate into their game strategy. There is no math behind it, but when the cards are strongly favoring the dealer, I get away from that table, take a break, and find one where the cards work better for me. I do this when I am winning as well. I have been counting cards,(KO) almost a year now, but these stop limits have been a part of my game much longer than counting.
Your replys that stop limits are not necessary when counting makes perfect sense, and explains why I have never read about them in my card counting books. Not certain if I can give up stop limits right away, but they do not seem to be as important anymore.

Mathmatically speaking, using stop-loss reduces time played and less time played means less +EV per trip. zg

grifter, i've read a lot of your posts and find what you have to say worthy of a listen. however, and forgive this noobs imputence, but there is viable data that supports small profits over short periods, rather than large profits over long periods of play. i think, when looking at loss/win stop limits a bettor/gambler should ask themselves why they are sitting there to begin with. this can be as important if not more important than what sytem they are going to employ, i.e. hi-opt, hi/lo, revere, etc. if they are there to make 10-20% of your bankroll before you're out, you can do this fairly easily fairly quickly. (and i'm not talk progressions here). often before the first shoe is complete. however, you're looking at gamblers ruin before you double you bankroll using the same strategy for both outcomes.

you can double you over all bankroll for the nite, weekend, week, whatever, if you crash and burn tables. (i believe this is also called "wonging") hit a table, run it til you make 10-20 and then split. go to another table, preferable another casino if in LV and try and do the same thing. (this is hard when it's the only casino in town, sometimes you have to take long breaks) I'm not exactly sure about the probabilities of consecutive winning sessions. but i think with excellent BS and a good count system, you are looking at 80-85% lifetime.

i know there's a lot of variables to consider and i may be assuming common knowledge.

-=Random=-

RanAxe - Wonging means to 'back-count' the shoe and jump in ONLY when the count is advantageous.

As for setting stop-loss and/or stop-win limits, such stops only reduce a counter's hourly EV.

Look at it in reverse - WHAT IF a casino had a stop-limit - whenever a (typical no-BS) player was ahead 30u in 1hr he would be required to stop play for 20 minutes and then switch tables.

Do you think the casino would increase or decrease profits with such a rule? zg

I'm not sure, they probably couldn't take in as much action, but it would be fun to see what would really happen. But let us not forget, that stop limits are designed for us, the gambler, not casinos. casinos have a larger bankroll than any gambler out there along with the .55% edge. i believe it is a different preference for each player. personally, i like the quick burst and have had enough success with it for now that i will most likely continue with it. that is if i what to rub a little green. otherwise, if i'm bored and need someone to talk to, i'll take 100 down to the $2 and flat bet til i'm out of chips.

-=random=-

my 2cents

Although my time card counting has been short, I have made seven trips to the casino and profited everytime. I have been playing for about two or three weeks and i am up $2550. When i am planning a 2-3 hour session i bring with $7-800. I play $5-100 and $10-$100 betting spread. When i get up a few hundred i will put the chips in my pocket, and i will try to increase my wins with the casinos money. The most i have gotten down in a single session is -$450 so far, but then i was able to come back and ended up leaving +$375 for that session. If i lose the money i bring with i quit. That hasnt happened yet, and i have yet to lose for some reason. Im averaging well over $100/hr win rate. I like the idea of hit and run i guess. btw- Last year playing mediocre bS i lost over $5000, and i dont remember two winning sessions in a row. I do however remember being up several hundred dollars on particular nights and then giving it all back to the casino and all my own money in my wallet.

Shoe and Casino Memory

I understand the pyschological advantage to a stop loss, but you can't really think that it has positive effect on your winnings. It is just human nature to think that things will turn around (either for the good or bad). It is like an assumption that there is memory between shoes, or between casino trips.

The only useful concept I can derive from stop loss limits is that they might be a good reference to judge your counting ability. If you are reaching your stop loss point often, then you are either too afraid to be a good counter or your abilities are quite lacking (depending on whether you stop in the positive or negative).

Max

Its as simple as this, if your ev is $20/hr in which scenario do you make more money:

Playing for 30 minutes or for 4 hours.

If your answer is four hours then drop the stop limit, if your answer is 30 minutes then you need to try the math again with a calculator.

ETG....got to yank your chain here! Just picking nits here.

My answer is that the EV can be exactly equal. You play at a $20/hr rate for 4 hours straight. You play eight 30 minute sessions scattered over six days for a total of 4 hours (or 30 sessions scattered over 8 hours.)

Wouldn't the EV be the same? :devil:

The truth is that while breaking the sessions up would hurt the casino if they cut someone off who was losing (or winning because to the math used by casinos, every player is evaluated as a loser!) it isn't the same as if a player walks away. The casino keeps on playing. The player might not. Not that it will help the player other than psychologically.

Stop lossses do affect counters. See http://www.advantageplayer.com/blackjack/forums/bj-main/webbbs.cgi?read=18995 (Archive copy)

Thankyou for your replies, and advice
You now have me convinced that I should abandon stop limits completely.

I think you missed my point. I said which is better to play for 4hrs or 30minutes. Of course playing for 30min. over 8 sessions is the same thing, they're both 4hrs long. If you want to talk about playing 8 sessions then the guy who plays 4hr/session would have played 32hr compared to 4hr, now the expected profit is drastically different, $80 vs. $640.

The fact is if you're not too tired or attracting too much heat keep playing. The more you play the more money you make.