What bet spread do I need to use in this scenario

[Thunder]

If I'm playing in AC at a 6 deck table S17 (no surrender, doa, das except aces) using the hi-lo counting method using no indices except for hitting 12 vs dealer 4 when tc=-1 and standing on 16 when tc=+1, (since it's pretty rare that the count ever gets above +3 in this situation) what betting spread do I need to be using to have a positive EV assuming penetration of 75%? I mostly play poker now as I have found that playing nl 1/2 nl poker, I'm averaging $48/hr while needing a much smaller bankroll vs trying to average that much in BJ.

[cardcounter0]

spread 1-12 or 1-16. the true ideal spread would be 1 hand of table min to 7 hands at table max, but you give no information about bankroll size, how much risk you are willing to take, and how much heat the casino can bring.

75% penetration is pretty marginal, so you are going to have spread larger to make any money. Pick up a copy of Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger, he has all the "how much do I bet" info down pat.

(oh, and 12 vs 4 and 16 vs T are both 0, not -1 and +1.)

You might be better off moving up to 3/5 NL instead of wasting time at BJ.

[21forme]

If you wong out at -1, 1:10 should do it. If you play all, you'll need a bigger spread. Why not learn a few more indices? Also, it's not that uncommon for counts to go above +3 in those games. I was there earlier this week and played 2 shoes that went to +6.

[Sonny]

Make sure to take insurance at +3 or higher. Without that index play you will lose a lot of your advantage. You can also skip learning all the negative indices if you plan on backcounting (which is pretty much the only way to play in AC).

-Sonny-

[Thunder]

I agree that it's almost hopeless to play BJ in AC right now for a + EV without wonging and backcounting. I just hate doing that because then I find myself standing around forever waiting for the count to get good and by the time it does, that last spot that was open at the table gets filled! With no mid shoe entry now even at the $25 tables, BJ like I said has just been something to play when I get bored or tired of poker. I typically bring a $1000 bankroll. But have been willing to have my ROR go up a lot by only bringing $800 on some trips. The other thing is, when you're trying to do a 1-10 spread using only 1 spot, you stick out like a sore thumb at most joints in AC with the exception being maybe the Borgata. It is practically impossible to get a $10 table that's empty enough to allow you to play 2 or 3 spots when the count is good. You may be able to when you first sit down but it's not long after that, that the table will fill up.
I also have noticed that my comps got reduced to now something like $1.50-$2/hr for BJ play so it's hard to justify playing BJ anymore in AC other than for fun, that is unless you have a HUGE bankroll.

[21forme]

Originally Posted by Thunder

I also have noticed that my comps got reduced to now something like $1.50-$2/hr for BJ play so it's hard to justify playing BJ anymore in AC other than for fun, that is unless you have a HUGE bankroll.

Well, I don't know about HUGE, but significantly bigger than 1K would help. You're right about crowds at Borgata. They seem to keep less tables open than they used to. Perhaps as the weather cools off, the crowds will thin some more. AC was very crowded earlier this week. Perhaps due to a lot of busniesses and schools closing for the Jewish holiday. However, in the mean time, I often sit at one of the $25 tables (not recommended with a 1K BR) in the NMS pit. They are less crowded, and nobody can jump in and fill the spot mid-shoe. If the count rises, I spread to 2 hands. If the count goes negative, I get up and find another table.

[jack,jackson]

Originally Posted by Thunder

I agree that it's almost hopeless to play BJ in AC right now for a + EV without wonging and backcounting. I just hate doing that because then I find myself standing around forever waiting for the count to get good and by the time it does, that last spot that was open at the table gets filled! With no mid shoe entry now even at the $25 tables, BJ like I said has just been something to play when I get bored or tired of poker. I typically bring a $1000 bankroll. But have been willing to have my ROR go up a lot by only bringing $800 on some trips. The other thing is, when you're trying to do a 1-10 spread using only 1 spot, you stick out like a sore thumb at most joints in AC with the exception being maybe the Borgata. It is practically impossible to get a $10 table that's empty enough to allow you to play 2 or 3 spots when the count is good. You may be able to when you first sit down but it's not long after that, that the table will fill up.
I also have noticed that my comps got reduced to now something like $1.50-$2/hr for BJ play so it's hard to justify playing BJ anymore in AC other than for fun, that is unless you have a HUGE bankroll.

What if you made Maxbets off the top off the shoe and left and TC -1??

Wouldnt that method produce +EV?

[21forme]

Originally Posted by jack,jackson

What if you made Maxbets off the top off the shoe and left and TC -1??

Wouldnt that method produce +EV?

A max bet off the top is -EV. Why would you suggest that?

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by jack,jackson

What if you made Maxbets off the top off the shoe and left and TC -1??

Wouldnt that method produce +EV?

no it won't. you're max betting when you are at a disadvantage.

[jack,jackson]

Originally Posted by 21forme

A max bet off the top is -EV. Why would you suggest that?

Sorry if it sounded as a suggestion. I was actually asking or wondering if someone knew?

Actually though....albeit flatbets or maxbets, if you were to strictly to play hands at TC of -1 or higher, whether it be by wonging out or sitting out hands, wouldnt that be +ev??