Dealer gets hot when in negative count trend

[micbravo]

I assume that the bets must vary in order to win. But, if playing BS (and not counting), there are only two ways to vary bet – lower when in losing trends and higher in a winning trend (I am guessing that a losing trend occurs at least 50% more than winning trend). But its all random, and player dont have idea when its reversing. But, with count the player has a sense of predicting the outcome - so can vary the bet based on the stats.

Another question. I wonder how often the dealer gets a hot trend even when the count is negative so that a player still shouldnt bet the house on the count. ;-)

Thanks to all for freely sharing your knowledge and experience!

[SleightOfHand]

Originally Posted by micbravo

I assume that the bets must vary in order to win.

Technically not true. If you know what cards the dealer has and what cards are going to come out, you dont need a varying bet. Using wonging (jumping in when the player has the advantage and out when he doesn't), you don't need to vary your bet to win.

Originally Posted by micbravo

But, if playing BS (and not counting), there are only two ways to vary bet – lower when in losing trends and higher in a winning trend (I am guessing that a losing trend occurs at least 50% more than winning trend).

The dealer (on average) has about a .5% advantage. But for argument's sake, the dealer has a 50/50 chance of winning/losing on any given hand when using BS. Trends can only be seen after the event. You cannot predict trends.

Originally Posted by micbravo

But its all random, and player dont have idea when its reversing. But, with count the player has a sense of predicting the outcome - so can vary the bet based on the stats.

You are contradicting yourself. Since its random and you dont have an idea when its reversing you cannot have a sense of predicting the outcome. If you did have a sense, why not just bet it all and double up?

Originally Posted by micbravo

Another question. I wonder how often the dealer gets a hot trend even when the count is negative so that a player still shouldnt bet the house on the count.

As a general rule, each change in count gives a .5% change in advantage. So in a -3 count, the dealer has a 2% chance to win.

[Mimosine]

this should be placed in the voodoo lounge!

[micbravo]

Excuse the misposting, you guys are great ;-))

[shadroch]

In a negative count,the dealer will draw more of the cards he needs to make a hand.

[EasyRhino]

disclaimer: everything I'm about to say doesn't matter.

I've heard of a study. Assume something which is extremely sensitive to deck composition, like a single deck game which is dealt to nearly the bottom. In other words, a game that doesn't exist any more.

If the dealer had a hand which they won because they drew a silly number of small cards, it would increase the count, making the next hand somewhat advantageous for the player. And, it turns out, that dealers will win their hands in ways that, on average, and slightly, tends to make the count higher.

Therefore, hands after losses have a slightly smaller disadvantage than hands after winning hands.

But this effect is not enough to parlay into even a break-even game.

[micbravo]

I been running lots of practices on the BJ Trainer – about 100 games so far. My research is to see if BS coupled with a - ballparking the count – method, and patience gives an appreciable advantage.

I did 6D and 8D (about 30% pen) with and w/o counting with S17, late surrender. I did it 2 ways: about 75 with BS and ballpark counting, and varying the bets up to $300. And 25 w/o counting but BS only, with flat betting. I did both with $50 minimum bets, starting bank for each shoe $1,000. Minimum bets $50.

Interesting result is that for the 25 no-count games, I ended up 8% (19 games, 6D) and 38% (4 games, 8D) profit – equal to/better than my counting attempts. Point I like to make is that a solid BS player, watching the “trend” of the – and + count status, does have an advantage. Especially if coupled with patience. B/c I did read somewhere that, 80% or 90% of the guest at a casino is up at some point on the trip, but 99% goes home down.

Also for each shoe, I started with $1K. For the count games several times, I had to replenish but not for non-count games. I may have over/under bet on the count games – thinking I had more control since I had some predictablity, whereas, for the no-count, I didn’t mess around. Thus, a safe startegy is to augment the BS with some count to get a handle on the remaining bias in the shoe and if the wind is at your back, then to up the bet with confidence?

(xls spread sheet available by email)

[EasyRhino]

You need to run a few million hands before you can get a real feeling of statistical reliability.

In addition, fully orthodox card counting only results in like a 1% advantage, and that is in no way noticeable or "feelable" over the short or medium term.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by micbravo

I been running lots of practices on the BJ Trainer – about 100 games so far. My research is to see if BS coupled with a - ballparking the count – method, and patience gives an appreciable advantage.

I did 6D and 8D (about 30% pen) with and w/o counting with S17, late surrender. I did it 2 ways: about 75 with BS and ballpark counting, and varying the bets up to $300. And 25 w/o counting but BS only, with flat betting. I did both with $50 minimum bets, starting bank for each shoe $1,000. Minimum bets $50.

Interesting result is that for the 25 no-count games, I ended up 8% (19 games, 6D) and 38% (4 games, 8D) profit – equal to/better than my counting attempts. Point I like to make is that a solid BS player, watching the “trend” of the – and + count status, does have an advantage. Especially if coupled with patience. B/c I did read somewhere that, 80% or 90% of the guest at a casino is up at some point on the trip, but 99% goes home down.

Also for each shoe, I started with $1K. For the count games several times, I had to replenish but not for non-count games. I may have over/under bet on the count games – thinking I had more control since I had some predictablity, whereas, for the no-count, I didn’t mess around. Thus, a safe startegy is to augment the BS with some count to get a handle on the remaining bias in the shoe and if the wind is at your back, then to up the bet with confidence?

(xls spread sheet available by email)

Vooooooooooo....Doooooooooooooooo! zg