When to stop a winning session?

[DonR]

One of the biggest dilemmas for me is when to stop a winning session. I know I'm not going to do it on a positive count in a shoe, but generally, how much winning is enough?

I'm typically playing $10 or $15 tables ($5, if I can find them, which is not very easy). So, quite a few times in the past, I would get lucky and be up $100, or $150 in an hour or less (say around 10 betting units). If I keep on playing, a lot of times I've seen that money disappear completely, or go down to only around 2-3 betting units.

So, what is the right time to stop your winning session and call it a day, in relation to all the relevant factors (betting unit size, betting spread, and so on)?

In my case, I am playing 8 deck shoes, penetration is usually 70%-75% (sucks), dealer stands on soft 17 and in most cases I bet $10, as a base unit, with rather modest spread of about 1-4 or 1-5.

Any ideas guys of what would be a good time to leave with your winnings, if any?

Of course, quite a different story is when to leave when losing, but that's a different ball game all together.

[Sonny]

If you're playing with an advantage, why would you want to quit early? The longer you play, the more money you expect to make. Unless you're getting heat or the conditions have changed, keep playing.

-Sonny-

[DonR]

What is the expected win rate per hour, for an AP? I think I may have seen a formula that takes all the factors into consideration, but now I can't find it.

[Sonny]

For the game you described, a 1-5 spread is probably a break-even situation unless you are Wonging. A better play-all spread would be at least 1-16, maybe 1-20 or whatever you think you can get away with. If you are backcounting a 1-5 spread might earn you a unit or less per hour. The book Blackjack Attack covers all of these topics in great detail, and it has an entire chapter full of EV charts for just about any game.

-Sonny-

[DonR]

Thank you, Sonny.

[EasyRhino]

If playing a break even or losing-proposition game, I'd say leave as early as possible.

If playing a winning game, then I'd say stay as long as you want until your performance starts to degrade (fatigue or booze) or if you overstay your welcome (heat, or winning too much).

If heat is an issue, keep the session under an hour, or alternately time it by the number of shoes where you going from low bets to very high bets. Maybe only do that once or twice, then split.

Heat is not as often an issue at lower stakes.

[matt21]

Originally Posted by DonR

One of the biggest dilemmas for me is when to stop a winning session. I know I'm not going to do it on a positive count in a shoe, but generally, how much winning is enough?

I'm typically playing $10 or $15 tables ($5, if I can find them, which is not very easy). So, quite a few times in the past, I would get lucky and be up $100, or $150 in an hour or less (say around 10 betting units). If I keep on playing, a lot of times I've seen that money disappear completely, or go down to only around 2-3 betting units.

So, what is the right time to stop your winning session and call it a day, in relation to all the relevant factors (betting unit size, betting spread, and so on)?

In my case, I am playing 8 deck shoes, penetration is usually 70%-75% (sucks), dealer stands on soft 17 and in most cases I bet $10, as a base unit, with rather modest spread of about 1-4 or 1-5.

Any ideas guys of what would be a good time to leave with your winnings, if any?

hey Don - i have also had to learn this lesson and asked a similar question a little while back. One thing that i do like is being able to record a winning session in my log - and i know that it's not a nice feeling to have given back all your winnings.

Having looked over my play, i now often leave after being up 20-30 units or more. Often I am down to begin with (sometimes by 40+ units) and will then often play until i reach break-even point or thereabouts. Also I would leave if the playing conditions are no longer any good. A gain or loss of 10 units is more or less a break-even session for me.

also, being up 10 units should not be a rare occurence. it should be relatively common for you to be up or down 10 units after only 1-2 shoes. so i dont think you should be considering stopping play if you are ahead by just 10 units.

finally, if you are not wonging, then it sounds like you are playing a losing game. i dont think you have +EV in a 8D/70-75pen/1-5 spread.

hope that helps a little.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by DonR

One of the biggest dilemmas for me is when to stop a winning session. I know I'm not going to do it on a positive count in a shoe, but generally, how much winning is enough?

I'm typically playing $10 or $15 tables ($5, if I can find them, which is not very easy). So, quite a few times in the past, I would get lucky and be up $100, or $150 in an hour or less (say around 10 betting units). If I keep on playing, a lot of times I've seen that money disappear completely, or go down to only around 2-3 betting units.

So, what is the right time to stop your winning session and call it a day, in relation to all the relevant factors (betting unit size, betting spread, and so on)?

In my case, I am playing 8 deck shoes, penetration is usually 70%-75% (sucks), dealer stands on soft 17 and in most cases I bet $10, as a base unit, with rather modest spread of about 1-4 or 1-5.

Any ideas guys of what would be a good time to leave with your winnings, if any?

Of course, quite a different story is when to leave when losing, but that's a different ball game all together.

If you're playing with an advantage, why would you want to quit early? The longer you play, the more money you expect to make. Unless you're getting heat or the conditions have changed, keep playing.

-Sonny-

Sonny's right. kind of goes with out saying around here. Sonny IMHO knows his stuff.

i know your situation only too well.
if i'm not mistaken your sort of starting out and maybe haven't a real lot of experience. and i think your going up against crap games and that perhaps is about all you have available. and maybe wonging in and out is 'exceedingly difficult' for you in these games.
you ask:

Quote:
DonR What is the expected win rate per hour, for an AP? I think I may have seen a formula that takes all the factors into consideration, but now I can't find it.

this you need to know. and you want to try and have an idea of how your action is stacking up against such standards as you are asking about above.
ie. you want to have an idea of what to expect if you was a perfect card counter playing the same game you are playing. then you want to be able to compare the results of your action ie. hands played or hours played what are your results and what are the expected results of an ideal card counter with respect to standard deviation and expected value.
the following link has a spread sheet in the bottom of the post that can be very useful in figuring out that kind of stuff:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...57&postcount=6
it's called wwIIhilo.zip. i need to caution you how ever that the spread sheet would need to be configured for your game parameters. parameters such as standard deviation and W/L%. note: that in the link provided are game simulation results. you can get the parameters needed to adjust the spread sheet from such a simulation that is set up for the games you are going up against.

so again Sonny's advice on the question of when to quit is IMHO correct.
the standard answer is to not quit if you are lucky enough to be playing against a positive count, but you should quit if your trip bankroll is down so far that you would not be able to split and double down properly according to basic strategy or you would not be able to raise your bets according to your bet spread and ramp. also you'd quit if you was tired, fatiqued, angry, upset stuff like that. but really you can quit anytime you want to, it's no big deal. maybe it's just the idea you want to get in as much premium playing time as you can because of things like having to travel, room and board costs, things like that.

now i'm gonna get controversial here. a whole lot controversial and say that stop/win and stop/loss measures aren't necessarily a bad thing. such measures can definately be a drag on the profit margin of a professional player that plays a whole lot of blackjack. thats because the more hands you get in playing against an advantage the more you win regardless of those ups and downs you mentioned above in your orignial post. i'll go out on a limb and say guessing that you don't and probably wont play near the rate of play that a professional plays. probably not even close to say four to six hours a day five days a week, what ever. the point being using a goal based approach with stop/win and stop/loss measures probably woudn't have a significant negative effect at your level of play.
so but anyway if you put to use a simulation of the games you play and if you learn to use and understand the spread sheet that i mentioned then at least you can gauge how your doing when you play. then you would have a foundation of how you want to play and how your are actually doing. that being the case you can if you so desire use such knowledge to make decisions with regard to stop/win and stop/loss goals or just knowing your self and how much you play and what makes you happy sort of thing you can more easily decide the question of when to quit that best fits you.

just a little more on these issues with respect to what i think might be an issue that you face. that being i'm thinking you probably play all more so than using the advantage of wonging in and out.
you did mention how "I'm typically playing $10 or $15 tables ($5, if I can find them, which is not very easy). So, quite a few times in the past, I would get lucky and be up $100, or $150 in an hour or less (say around 10 betting units). If I keep on playing, a lot of times I've seen that money disappear completely, or go down to only around 2-3 betting units."
so lets say you have some stop/win and stop/loss goal target (maybe the ideal counters expected value, or some standard deviation up, what ever). well what ever one other thing you can expect playing all those eight deck games is to be sitting through a lot of zero and negative true count hands. probably about 70% of your playing time over the long haul. so heck say you hit some goal and suspend play for ten minutes, a day, a week what ever but it shouldn't be to hard to stop when it's a zero or negative count. do it. lol. so you combine a little voodoo with a smart thing i.e. wonging out and heck maybe next time you sit down you actually manage to wong in maybe. just some food for thought.
a few links where i rant a bit on these matters: (lol, i see one of the rants was in your ear)
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...3&postcount=21
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...&postcount=139

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by DonR

One of the biggest dilemmas for me is when to stop a winning session.

Stop when its over. zg

[DonR]

Thanks, guys! Sagefr0g, thank you for the link to that spreadsheet. I am having a little bit of a problem, because I have an older version of Excel, which will not open xlsx extensions, but I'll get the File Format Converter from Microsoft's site, so I should be all set.

I'm trying to turn things to my favor. Right now, I am about breaking even, on the average (or still losing by a small margin). That's why I appreciate all the help from you guys, in my quest to try to become a better player than I am now. I know I'm never going to be a true pro, but I'd still like to improve as much as I can.

Two things seem to be extremely important: wonging in and out, and proper bet spreads (obviously much wider than what I'm using now). There's a bunch of things that do not help, like limited number of casinos and tables, crappy rules, and all of that stuff, but I am pretty sure that I can still do better than what I'm doing now.