True Count break even

[1357111317]

Now I have read that if you play basic stratagy perfectly you will win 42% of the hands but with doubling down, splitting etc your total win rate(amount of money won vs money bet) will be roughly 49% (My casino is split and double after split, pays 3:2 and hit of soft seventeen). What does the true count have to be so that your total win rate will be 50% or higher?

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by 1357111317

What does the true count have to be so that your total win rate will be 50% or higher?

I believe the true count has to be +17 before you start winning more often than you lose. I'd guess it'd have to be +20 or higher before your win percentage breaks 50%.

[DonR]

As far as I know, and guys correct me if I am wrong, player's advantage goes up roughly by 0.5% with every increase in true count of 1. TC 0, gives the house an advantage of 0.5%. At Tc +1, you are roughly playing at 50-50 chance (with perfect basic strategy)...and so on.

[jaredmt]

you dont need to win most hands. you just have to win the right ones like doubles/splits/blackjacks and u gain ur advantage that way

but as DonR said, you're edge is even with the casino when TC = +1

[notorious546]

ya 17+?
can anyone explain that to me?
i understand the true count +1 thing.. adding .5% to out advantage

thanks!

[creeping panther]

Originally Posted by 1357111317

Now I have read that if you play basic stratagy perfectly you will win 42% of the hands but with doubling down, splitting etc your total win rate(amount of money won vs money bet) will be roughly 49% (My casino is split and double after split, pays 3:2 and hit of soft seventeen). What does the true count have to be so that your total win rate will be 50% or higher?

There is a problem about trying to put these percentages into granite. There is always fluctuations both ways, usually the higher the count the greater chance the dealer will have a face or 10 up, even an ace, you must steel yourself to this inevitability and be able to deal with it. You need alot of skillz to win in this game, mental, physical, emotional, tactical, along with a good "count". If you have a tc of +5 and up you have to go into full attack mode and pray you are on your game and that you then get the cards you will NEED with the big bets out It can get very dicey, fast,, with nothing for sure, not in reality. It is not easy, it is not like in the movies.



CP

[1357111317]

Originally Posted by jaredmt

you dont need to win most hands. you just have to win the right ones like doubles/splits/blackjacks and u gain ur advantage that way

but as DonR said, you're edge is even with the casino when TC = +1

Yeah thats what I meant, the break even point in terms of money not hand winning percentage.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by 1357111317

Yeah thats what I meant, the break even point in terms of money not hand winning percentage.

Okay, that's very different. Depending on the rules, the advantage will shift to you somewhere around TC +1.

Keep in mind though that even at TC +5 you will lose more hands than you win! The reason why you have the advantage is that you split more, you double more, and more of your splits and doubles will work.

Most of the time you win 42-44% and lose 48-50% of your hands, but your average win will be greater than your average loss. You get the advantage mostly because your average winning bet goes up, and only a little bit because your win percentage goes up.

[jack,jackson]

Originally Posted by callipygian

Okay, that's very different. Depending on the rules, the advantage will shift to you somewhere around TC +1.

Provided he spreads about 1:2, right? Meaning if he spread 1:2 in (all)positive counts then it would basically be a break-even game.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by jack,jackson

Provided he spreads about 1:2, right? Meaning if he spread 1:2 in (all)positive counts then it would basically be a break-even game.

I'm not 100% sure, but off the top of my head, no, because 0 is the most common TC and your advantage is negative.

You have the advantage at TC +1 (or +2 in some cases) whether or not you bet more or not. If you Wong in at +1/+2, you can get an advantage without ever spreading your bet because you only play when you have the advantage.