My Game, Odds & Leaving

[Romes]

Hey everyone, I play on the weekends at Argosy Casino near Southern Ohio and they have a double deck game that I play. The table rules and information are as follows:

Double Deck
55%-60% Penetration
Dealer Stand on 17
Double only on 10/11
Late Surrender
Only split once (any pair)

I used the advantage calculator with these rules and it listed as playing basic strategy with these rules as -0.501%. My question is pretty simple. I use the Hi-Low system with an 8-1 betting spread. Normally I bet 1 hand 1 unit, but when I bet bigger I like to bet two hands of 4-1 spreads, effictively giving me an 8-1 spread. Also I really enjoy double deck games (and single if you can find one) because I have a pretty good photographic memory and I usually count how many of each card is actually left (maybe not 100% perfect all the time but I bet I do know more than just the traditional true count). So based on what I've told you what are my game's odds for winning?

Also, I was wondering the typical "when should I leave" question for this game as well. I'll just use real numbers, I don't care. The game is $25 min and I buy in for $500 (w/ $500 in pocket if need so 1k basically). I generally shoot for $325 before I quit (300 profit, 25 gas). This is small enough to basically stay under the radar. However, in my luck of not having a losing session since i started 3 months ago (after weeks of training at home) on my last trip I actually received some heat. A couple phone calls and then 3 pit bosses were standing around my table staring at me as I played. I haven't went back for a few weeks to let it smooth over a little. Anyways, when is a good time for me to leave this game, or a good number to shoot for?

Thanks in advance for your input and help.

[cardcounter0]

Go down the river to the Grand Vic for a while.

Too bad you missed Belterra's DD game before I burned it. S17, DOA, NDAS. Then they changed it to D9,10,11. Then after another month or two of my play, the high limit room had nothing but 6 deck shoes.

[21forme]

I played there once, while in the Cinci area. The shoe games are much better than that horrid DD game. Avoid the CSMs.

On a positive note, they have one of the best Spanish 21 games around - 6 deck, S17.

[Romes]

Originally Posted by 21forme

I played there once, while in the Cinci area. The shoe games are much better than that horrid DD game. Avoid the CSMs.

On a positive note, they have one of the best Spanish 21 games around - 6 deck, S17.

I haven't looked into Spanish 21 a whole lot (yet), but it seems like a game that isn't that good. Taking all the 10's out of 6 decks starts the count off at -24. Wouldn't that be pretty bad?

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Romes

Taking all the 10's out of 6 decks starts the count off at -24. Wouldn't that be pretty bad?

Yes, but they usually add some special rules that make the game playable again. Things like double down rescue, doubling on any number of cards, and automatic win with 21 make the game more reasonable.

-Sonny-

[21forme]

Originally Posted by Romes

I haven't looked into Spanish 21 a whole lot (yet), but it seems like a game that isn't that good. Taking all the 10's out of 6 decks starts the count off at -24. Wouldn't that be pretty bad?

For a basic strategy player, a shoe game S17 Sp21 is about 0.3% better than a shoe game of S17 BJ. Counting is better, too. Yes, the count starts at -24, but you already have an advantage at a TC of -3. There are a number of different rules, such as a player 21 beats a dealer 21, you may surrender after a double down, 3:2 on 5 card 21, 2:1 on 6 cards 21, etc. Go to wizardofodds.com for full rundown on the game including BS charts.

[Romes]

Originally Posted by 21forme

For a basic strategy player, a shoe game S17 Sp21 is about 0.3% better than a shoe game of S17 BJ. Counting is better, too. Yes, the count starts at -24, but you already have an advantage at a TC of -3. There are a number of different rules, such as a player 21 beats a dealer 21, you may surrender after a double down, 3:2 on 5 card 21, 2:1 on 6 cards 21, etc. Go to wizardofodds.com for full rundown on the game including BS charts.

Thanks to both you and Sonny. I'm definitely going to check it out because as I recall when looking at the game it had all of those rules to make the game better. S17, any # of splits on any cards, double any cards, double surrender, etc. All those rules sounded awesome but I wasn't sure if it was worth playing or not. Figured I'd ask you guys before stepping into unknown waters. Thanks again for the input/site!

[creeping panther]

Originally Posted by cardcounter0

Go down the river to the Grand Vic for a while.

Too bad you missed Belterra's DD game before I burned it. S17, DOA, NDAS. Then they changed it to D9,10,11. Then after another month or two of my play, the high limit room had nothing but 6 deck shoes.

If I remember correctly it was a retired machinist, an older gent who burned the game out, but I may be wrong.

Also burning out a game is nothing to be proud of. You do seem to delight in bragging about it. In some areas it can be a dangerous thing to do.

CP

[creeping panther]

Congrats on you fine record

Sad thing is I think you will soon be toast

Stay away for a few months, like 6 or more and use no players card when you go back. You really can't expect them to continue to let you play unmolested with the record you have built of constant winning.

Best to you,
CP