EV per hour

[1357111317]

What kind of EV per hour should i expect on average (in terms of betting units not money) with this stratagy/game:

HiLo with the Illustrious 18
4-1 betting spread
6 deck 83% pen Hit on soft 17 Double after split and split after split 3:2 blackjack.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by 1357111317

What kind of EV per hour should i expect on average (in terms of betting units not money) with this stratagy/game:

HiLo with the Illustrious 18
4-1 betting spread
6 deck 83% pen Hit on soft 17 Double after split and split after split 3:2 blackjack.

(1) You'll need to be more specific on what a "4-1 betting spread" means.

Fill out this chart:
TC Units Bet
--- ---------
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5

Someone who bets 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,4 is going to have a different EV than someone who bets 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,4,4,4,4.

[1357111317]

Ok 4 units is my max bet ( Yeah I know thats low I have a 100 unit bankroll currently) I will bet 2 on +2TC bet 3 on +3TC and bet 4 on +5 and up TC

[rukus]

Originally Posted by 1357111317

Ok 4 units is my max bet ( Yeah I know thats low I have a 100 unit bankroll currently) I will bet 2 on +2TC bet 3 on +3TC and bet 4 on +5 and up TC

with 100 units, maybe dont play anything less than +1 if table conditions allow. you'll take a hit in hourly EV in terms of units but might be able to make up for it by using a slightly bigger betting unit while reducing ROR on a 100 unit BR. additionally, that 1-4 spread will then be all the more powerful. should not waste your time playing all with only a 1-4 spread probably.

[Sonny]

You will win around 0.3 units per hour. That’s $3/hour if your betting unit is $10. With a 100-unit bankroll you have a RoR of around 89%. That's only a 1-in-10 chance of not going broke. If you only play positive counts then your win rate goes up to about 0.7 units per hour with a RoR of around 26%.

-Sonny-

[1357111317]

I plugged some of those numbers into that spreadsheet you made a while back and I dont think they quite add up to what you just told me. In that spreadsheet is the RoR the chance you will go broke or the chance you won't go broke?

[Sonny]

The RoR is the chance of going broke. You can take 1-RoR to get the chance of not going broke. The numbers above are from CVCX Online so the results might be slightly different than your results (although it shouldn't be by much). If you are Wonging in at +2 (which you might be) then your results will be much different. In that case my spreadsheet gives an EV of 0.83 units per hour with a RoR of 35.47%, but that's for a generic 6D game with surrender. A game without surrender will have a lower EV and higher SD hence a higher RoR.

-Sonny-

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by rukus

with 100 units, maybe dont play anything less than +1 if table conditions allow. you'll take a hit in hourly EV in terms of units but might be able to make up for it by using a slightly bigger betting unit while reducing ROR on a 100 unit BR. additionally, that 1-4 spread will then be all the more powerful. should not waste your time playing all with only a 1-4 spread probably.

I hate betting other people's money but I'd stick with the above advice. The key is if you are allowed MSE or not.

If it is allowed maybe even consider a 1-3 spread, 1 unit at 2&3, 1.5 units at 4, 2 at 5&6, and 3 at >6.

Maybe you make .5 units for every 100 hands seen but at least ROR is semi-reasonable. 13% or so maybe?

The good news is you wouldn't be playing very many physical hands an hour, you'd be counting your as* off, and hopefully having fun with the chance to re-adjust every so often.

I'm kinda assuming maybe u got $1K with a $10 min.

[newb99]

Originally Posted by Sonny

You will win around 0.3 units per hour. That’s $3/hour if your betting unit is $10. With a 100-unit bankroll you have a RoR of around 89%. That's only a 1-in-10 chance of not going broke. If you only play positive counts then your win rate goes up to about 0.7 units per hour with a RoR of around 26%.

-Sonny-

The RoR here seems very high for a 100 unit bankroll and spreading 1-4 ??? Is this probability based on playing without time limitations and that the bankroll is non-replensihable ?

Newb99

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by newb99

Is this probability based on playing without time limitations and that the bankroll is non-replensihable ?

Right. I used the standard non-replenishable RoR formula. A 1-4 spread is almost useless for a play-all shoe game and 100 units is not nearly enough bankroll. You might be able to get away with a 1-4 spread if you’re wonging, but for play-all you should try to get at least a 1-12 spread or more. Usually a 600- or 800-unit bankroll will give you a small-ish RoR for that style of play.

-Sonny-