my voodoo system... anybody interested?

[ohbehave]

I also count but I've done better both at the casino and on blackjack trainers with this system, however my experience is somewhat limited in live play. Would 5 or 10 of you be interested in not just saying it doesn't work but put it to the test and run a thousand hands on any online trainer you choose (use a realistic trainer... i.e. not one that shuffles after each hand).

Its a variation of Labouchere, the elimination system. If your not familiar with Labouchere check www.ace-ten.com/intermediate/effective.html Here are the specifics.

approximately 1000 hands, replenish BR if necessary
use strict basic strategy only, 6D, DA2, DAS, NRA, NS
starting BR $1000
$5 units
starting series of numbers is 1,2,3,4

the goal is to complete each series however I've put in bailout limits so some series will not be completed

THE RULES
1) maximum bet is 15 units ($75)
2) if you reach max bet, win or lose, your next bet must start a new series
3) if you lose 3 consecutive hands you must start a new series

Record your net win or loss after approximately 1000 hands. I know its not statistically significant but its a start without being overly burdensome. Should only take a couple of hours to complete the trial.

[Sonny]

The links in the sticky thread at the top of this forum will help you understand what kind of results to expect from a system like this. Here is a good one to start with:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...rogression.htm

-Sonny-

[ohbehave]

Fair enough. I'm not claiming this is a winning strategy. I totally agree that the Labouchere system carried out to the letter will end in the loss of just about any size bankroll. I am though trying to accumulate enough hands played to try to have something statistically significant in regards to this variation.

I'm not aware of a simulator that can replicate this strategy and as far as I know no one has done it exactly as I've outlined. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work, end of story.

C'mon guys. This is the voodoo forum. Lets have some fun. 10 of you try it out and post your results. I'm working on mine.

[ohbehave]

Just to be clear. Your inital bet at the beginning of a new series will be $25 (1+4=5 units). Max initial bet allowed in any series is $75.

Doubles and splits do not affect the amount bet on the following hand and do not count toward max bet, you are only concerned about your initial bet as far as the series is concerned.

[ohbehave]

Here are the results from 1039 practice hands performed today:

I used the software located at www.blackjackforumonline.com

Beginning bankroll...............$1000
Ending bankroll...................$2639
Net profit..........................$1639

Profit per hand....................$1.58
Average bet......................$33.20
ROI per hand......................4.76%

Lowest bankroll.........approx. $470 (incorrect-see edit below)
# times bankroll replenished........0

220 series performed
165 series completed
55 series not completed
Series completed percentage...75%

These results are consistent with both previous practice hands performed, of which I have logged several thousand, and approximately 25 hours of live casino action which included both $1 and $5 unit play in which I have quadrupled my initial bankroll.

I have been reluctant to continue live casino play because I'm still not sure this strategy is valid for the long term.

Obviously, the number of practice hands and number of casino hours are not large enough to satisfy most players that this is a valid strategy, however it may lend some credence to further study of the system.

I urge all of you to do the same as I've done and report your results. I think this will be the quickest way to reach a valid sample size.

I will be glad to answer any questions concerning how to play the strategy.

Edit: The bankroll actually never fell below $1000. The reason for the $470 lowest bankroll is because several times I restarted the software and kept a running tally of the profit even though I did not ever require replenishing the bankroll. Once after a restart of the software the roll dropped to about $470. However, if I had never restarted the software it would have never fallen below the initial $1000 amount.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by ohbehave

I totally agree that the Labouchere system carried out to the letter will end in the loss of just about any size bankroll. I am though trying to accumulate enough hands played to try to have something statistically significant in regards to this variation.

Why would this variation be any different? The house edge is still the same, right? You haven't changed anything.

-Sonny-

[ohbehave]

I'll try to answer your question as best I can but I've struggled with it myself. In theory, with an infinite bankroll the Labouchere system works.

A completed series, unless there are doubles and/or splits gone bad, will result in a net increase in units.

So, the problem comes when either 1) the series is not completed, or 2) the bankroll is depleted due to the bet requirement becoming too high.

What I've done is limit the betting requirement so to eliminate 2 problems.
1) depleting the bankroll, and
2) the system does not get so complicated that it cannot be carried out in the casino

Now, next issue. How does it still come out ahead. I don't totally know, nor can I yet say it will in the long run. But...

With this system the goal is to COMPLETE THE SERIES. The goal is NOT to win an individual hand. I cannot stress those 2 statements enough.

You have several opportunities in each series to complete it. You do not have to win every hand. This is paramount. You cannot get focused on individual hands. COMPLETE THE SERIES or end it only after 3 consecutive losses or when max bet is reached.

Two observations are that the max bet is only rarely reached (maybe 3 or 4 times out of that 1000 hand trial) and that a completed series percentage of around 75% is typical, not extraordinary. If your completed series percentage drops in the 60% range you will be losing a lot of money. Sometimes that happens, but so do completed series of 90% in which case you are killing.

You can win when the count is low or high. But as long as you achieve a win rate of approximately 41-42% you will be making money. Fortunately that is the typical win rate of a BS player.

Now, having said all that, if your still with me..........

Are you willing to run 1000 hands?

Try this, if you will... Run 1000 hands with your best counting method and a $5 unit. Then run 1000 hands with the system I've outlined and post your results.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Why would this variation be any different? The house edge is still the same, right? You haven't changed anything.

-Sonny-

sensible question.
here's another question maybe not so sensible.
there's supposed to be these progressions, maybe Oscar's Grind would be an example. but anyway some of these progressions you end up having small wins say 85% of the time and then big busts 15%. so big it's ruinous sort of thing.
but the question is what is it about such a progression that it can skew the the number of win sessions to be 85% or so instead of the maybe 42% expected for a flat better? why does that even happen, or whats the mechanics underlying such skewedness?

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

but the question is what is it about such a progression that it can skew the the number of win sessions to be 85% or so instead of the maybe 42% expected for a flat better?

It’s based on the probability of events. If you flat bet, you have to win more hands than you lose in order to make a profit. When you Martingale, you only need to win the last hand in order to make a profit. It doesn’t matter how many hands you lose as long as you win that last one. The probability of losing many hands in a row is small so you are very likely to hit a win before you bust out. That’s why a progression player will make a profit most of the time. The problem is that he will eventually hit those “impossible” losing streaks that bust him. All of these streaks are built into the house advantage so no matter what progression system you use, you will run into a streak that destroys it.

-Sonny-

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by ohbehave

In theory, with an infinite bankroll the Labouchere system works.

Only for a finite time period. If you play for an infinite time you will eventually hit an infinite losing streak and go broke.

In the real world you have a finite bankroll and the house has the advantage. If you keep playing you will end up with no bankroll. It doesn’t matter how you randomly vary your bets. It doesn’t matter how you modify a progression system. It will always fail because the house has the advantage. Until you fix that problem you will not have a winning system. This is a fact. There are dozens of articles above that give conclusive proof of this. The end result is already known and has been for centuries. You are more than welcome to share your personal results and experiences, but we can already tell you how it will end. Even though your system sounds like a lot of fun to use, it’s very important that you understand it is not a winning system.

I don't want to discourage you from posting, I just want to make sure that you have realistic expectations.

-Sonny-