DD - keeping track of all cards remaining

chichow

Well-Known Member
#1
Aside from lucky ladies etc, DD only has 104 cards.

Say you could keep track of all cards remaining?

e.g. (5) Two cards / (6) Three cards / 2 (Four cards) etc.

How much of an advantage does that information provide?

How would you use this information along with penetration?

How much of an advantage does it provide along with a Hi-Low balance count.

Thanks!
 

iCountNTrack

Well-Known Member
#2
Perhaps theoretically, this might be give you an advantage, but do you think that is practically doable to calculate all the different hands probabilities, while playing. hmmm I don't think so.
 

HarryKuntz

Well-Known Member
#3
chichow said:
Aside from lucky ladies etc, DD only has 104 cards.

Say you could keep track of all cards remaining?

e.g. (5) Two cards / (6) Three cards / 2 (Four cards) etc.

How much of an advantage does that information provide?

How would you use this information along with penetration?

How much of an advantage does it provide along with a Hi-Low balance count.

Thanks!

This is how decent BJ computers work as well using advanced counting systems to pull a higher advantage than normal counting methods. However, I think you would need to be a genius to be able to do all the math in your head as well as keep all the different counts and unfortunately the use of computers is illegal in the US.
 

ccibball50

Well-Known Member
#4
I disagree. I think that anyone with a decent mind could memorize all the cards. It would take a few years to perfect, but it is possible. Then you could just memorize the math. For example the you know the dealer has a 37% chance of busting and you if you hit and get an 8 or higher, then you buts. well if you know exactly how many 8s and higher there are then you know the probability of busting and can make a much better decision on wehter to hit or not.
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#5
computer like play

If you play like a computer I would think you would cause yourself alot of grief. It's hard enough not to draw attention to your play without going to the extra effort to play perfectly. I do agree with you though about the advantage without knowing the true advantage. There have been threads that deal with this subject on this site. blackchipjim
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#6
ccibball50 said:
For example the you know the dealer has a 37% chance of busting and you if you hit and get an 8 or higher, then you bust. well if you know exactly how many 8s and higher there are then you know the probability of busting and can make a much better decision on wehter to hit or not.
But you also have to calculate the probability of getting a two-card total of eight, a three-card eight, etc. like this:

4,4
3,5
2,6
A,7
A,A,6
A,2,5
A,3,4
3,3,2
2,2,4
A,A,A,5
A,A,2,4
A,A,3,3
A,2,2,3
2,2,2,2
A,3,2,A,A
.
.
.
and many, many more.

Then you have to calculate the same for every other total as well. That's not something you can do in your head or memorize, especially at casino speed. Memrizing the cards is the easy part. Processing the data is the trick. Before you know it, you're in the middle of Snyder's Folly:

"Well," I explained, "I know you've got eleven tens, three aces, four deuces, one 3, four 4s, two 5s, two 6s, two 7s, one 8, and three 9s remaining. I know this because my count is 9 Farley 3 and I'm sitting with my weight on my right cheek. But I can't make my insurance decision till I tally up all these damn numbers and figure out the ten ratio."

"Then what good is Snyder's Folly?" Sam asked. "It's a waste of time. You're side counting for no reason. You're not using the count data!"


http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/sdcnt.htm

-Sonny-
 

ccibball50

Well-Known Member
#7
You are correct, but if you hit and get a a 2 for example. Now the problem has changes. 6 and higher will bust you and you need to know how many 6s and higher are in the deck.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#8
ccibball50 said:
You are correct, but if you hit and get a a 2 for example. Now the problem has changes. 6 and higher will bust you and you need to know how many 6s and higher are in the deck.
Right. Now you have to go through all of those calculations again using one less two. You have to recalculate the probabilities for every dealer total, the probabilities of every player total for a single hit card (to consider doubling), the probabilities of every player total for multiple hit cards and calculate the EVs for each option. You may have to factor in splits as well. Whew! :eek:

I'm sure it can be simplified to some degree by using approximation formulas, but that's still a lot of work to have to do in a split second.

-Sonny-
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
#9
Sonny said:
Right. Now you have to go through all of those calculations again using one less two. You have to recalculate the probabilities for every dealer total, the probabilities of every player total for a single hit card (to consider doubling), the probabilities of every player total for multiple hit cards and calculate the EVs for each option. You may have to factor in splits as well. Whew! :eek:

I'm sure it can be simplified to some degree by using approximation formulas, but that's still a lot of work to have to do in a split second.

-Sonny-
A computer can account for each and every card played. Today's computers can do a calculation or series of calculations pretty quickly. A human would never be able to do this. However, there are cases of intellectually disabled people who exhibit extraordinary abilities in highly specialized areas such as math, music, or whatever something like the character in the movie Rain Man. Known as idiot savants, these people sometimes have uncanny abilities.
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#10
human capabilities

I saw a guy on tv once awhile back and could do running math as fast you could read the equation. I was amazed with his ability to do all on any and all equations with 100% accuracy. If you could train this guy to do cards he would be the closest non fiction person I know of. blackchipjim
 

ccibball50

Well-Known Member
#11
Just so everyone will know. there is a guy who is supposed to be the worlds best blackjack player. He can take a six deck shoe and tell you every card and suit that has been played at any point in the deck. THis is possible, but not likely. However, One deck can be done and no you will not be able to know every possible equation, but you get to a point to where you memorize the equations and dont have to do the math, so the next time you get deeper. I agree no one will be able to come up with the exact percentage everytime, I am just saying I believe it is possible to have a substantial edge doing this. More substantial than any normal count system.
 

Randyk47

Well-Known Member
#12
My ex was a master bridge player and could remember what cards had been played and which ones were still in the deck. I never saw her do it with a shoe but she certainly could track DD. Once she told me she could do that I really tried to get her to count but she was happy just to have a general idea that the remaining deck was negative or positive. It did give her an advantage and she'd have some great runs but she was a conservative player and never took full advantage of her ability. At least two pit bosses, one in Bally's and one in Bill's (then Barbary Coast), knew she could do it but they never backed her off. Of course she'd play one or two units on a typical bet and would only jump her bet up to three or four units when she thought the remaining deck was in her favor so it wasn't like she was drawing a lot of attention.
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
#13
Randyk47 said:
My ex was a master bridge player and could remember what cards had been played and which ones were still in the deck. I never saw her do it with a shoe but she certainly could track DD. Once she told me she could do that I really tried to get her to count but she was happy just to have a general idea that the remaining deck was negative or positive. It did give her an advantage and she'd have some great runs but she was a conservative player and never took full advantage of her ability. At least two pit bosses, one in Bally's and one in Bill's (then Barbary Coast), knew she could do it but they never backed her off. Of course she'd play one or two units on a typical bet and would only jump her bet up to three or four units when she thought the remaining deck was in her favor so it wasn't like she was drawing a lot of attention.
I would say that bridge is a far easier game to know what exactly has been played as is blackjack. Also it is far easier to use this info in bridge than in blackjack. In bridge the cards generally are played such that 4 of a suit are played on each round. If you can remember the denominations of the cards as well as the suit count you are well on you way. In blackjack the cards are played in no particular order so to systematically keep track of the cards is far more difficult. In bridge most useful probabilites are recurring. For example if you are declarer and have 8 trumps between you and dummy, there are 5 trumps outstanding between you 2 opponents. These cards can be split 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, or 5-0 and the odds on these splits can be computed. Once the odds are known, they are the same every time this situation is encountered. Blackjack math is a lot more cumbersome. One recurring situation is every time the shoe is shuffled and for a full shoe you know that basic strategy is the best you can do. As more and more cards are played, though, most any composition can be present. In order to play perfectly a new "basic (best) strategy" needs to be computed after each card is played. The math of blackjack is not difficult but there are far too many possiblities to do the math while you play in order to come up with the perfect play. By contrast, a lot of times in bridge the perfect play is self evident. I have played bridge and don't consider myself that good. I have had deals where I could express exactly what has been played. Some deals are easier than others and I couldn't do it every time. However in blackjack I could never do this and even if I could, I couldn't instantaneously make use of the info in a casino.
 

Randyk47

Well-Known Member
#14
All you say is true but we're not equating the two games so you've missed the point. It's a memory trick and if used to its full ability would give the player an edge. My ex never thought much of it and it had only a little impact on her play. It was interesting to have her tell me there are such and such cards left in the deck. Her basic strategy was almost flawless, that was one aspect she'd let me train her on and we practiced for hours before a trip to Vegas. Might add that advanced chess players, experts and above, are known to have almost the same skill. It's simply a matter of memory and training their memory. Of course translating the skill to blackjack is another problem but some have done it well.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#15
Memorizing the cards is the least of your worries in this scenario. It's figuring out when basic strategy differs that is the hard part.

Let's say you're playing a game in which you know the following cards remain: one A, two 2's, two 3's, zero 4's, two 5's, one 6, three 7's, zero 8's, two 9's, and four 10's. You have hard 14 vs. dealer 5, what do you do? (Hit!)

Now let's say that you had one A, two 2's, two 3's, zero 4's, two 5's, one 6, two 7's, one 8, two 9's, and four 10's. Hard 14 vs. dealer 5, what do you do? (Stand!)

Even on a single deck game and 50% penetration, there are approximately 2,500,000,000,000,000 combinations of cards (Sum{n = 1 to 26, C(52,n)}) that can come up. For each one of those combinations, you will have to memorize a basic strategy chart. Even if you say that 99.9% of the hands correlate with a simple count and that 99.9% of the entries (e.g. TT vs. 6) are invariant across different combinations, that's still 2,500,000,000 charts to memorize.

Edit: for a double deck game with 50% penetration, you're looking at 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations of cards. For a 4-deck game with 50% penetration, it's 220,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations. For an 8-deck game with 50% penetration, it's 88,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations.
 

chichow

Well-Known Member
#16
Ok so its not just knowing the cards, it is the fact on how

the composition of the remaining cards should affect play.

But it still would help EV right? as it is additional information...

For example, if I am in a double down situation where with a Hi-Lo count it maybe marginal to double down, but I have 11 showing and I know that there are no more aces but a lot of 10s, then I am more inclined to double down, right?

so again, how much EV is there to be gained. Realistically now, keeping 5 different counts is not that bad using the hand foot etc method. I don't think it is that much of a stretch to approximate double the amount of counts with the counts limited to +8 for each number (1/2/3/4/5etc)
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
#17
chichow said:
Ok so its not just knowing the cards, it is the fact on how

the composition of the remaining cards should affect play.

But it still would help EV right? as it is additional information...

For example, if I am in a double down situation where with a Hi-Lo count it maybe marginal to double down, but I have 11 showing and I know that there are no more aces but a lot of 10s, then I am more inclined to double down, right?

so again, how much EV is there to be gained. Realistically now, keeping 5 different counts is not that bad using the hand foot etc method. I don't think it is that much of a stretch to approximate double the amount of counts with the counts limited to +8 for each number (1/2/3/4/5etc)
You're talking about using side counts in conjunction with a main count. I dabbled with trying to do this a while back. Here's how I went about it. At the time the only program I had written was for an infinite shoe. I used to like the ten count. It gives perfect insurance decisions. A couple of it's shortcomings are that it counts the ace as a negative card and it also makes a nine a negative card.

1. I created a graph. The x-axis referenced all of the possible true counts (-52=all non-tens to +104=all tens.) The y-axis represented the number/deck of a side counted card or cards. (If it was a single card the range of the y-axis would be 0 to 52. A y value could never be negative. I never did this for groups of cards because it was difficult enough just getting started with single cards.)

2. I computed indices for differing values of the side counted card. The result was a graph of indices over the possible range of the side counted card from 0 of that card present to 100% of that card present.

I remember doing this for both ace and nine. I remember plotting by hand all of the possible player hands when side counting the nines. Some of the graphs were basically linear. Others had some interesting shapes. I remember that the index of this count for 12 v 10 was about +24 when 4 nines/deck are present and about +6 when 0 nines/deck are present.

For aces I tried computing indices for 0, 4, and 8 aces per deck and tried using this in a casino. I found I could keep track of aces OK for double deck or single deck. I tried a little six deck just for the experience and found it to be more difficult to be confident in the side count. Overall I wasn't sure that what I was doing was helping or hurting. Also since I was using info from an infinite shoe calculation I wasn't sure how effects of removal affected finite shoe indices and probabilites.

I would say that side counts could help with the disclaimer that there is the danger that they also could hurt if mismanaged, and the danger of mismanagement could be high.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#18
chichow said:
But it still would help EV right?
Yes, it would help EV. Whether it would help EV enough to offset the house edge is the big question (I might try and do some sims later). In general, what you will find is that using any of the traditional counts (Hi-Lo, KO, etc.) will give you 90% of the benefit of multiple counts, at 0.00000000001% of the effort. That is why people use them.

For double deck and single deck, there may be few enough combinations such that you CAN offset the house edge. But I'd bet against it.

chichow said:
Realistically now, keeping 5 different counts is not that bad using the hand foot etc method. I don't think it is that much of a stretch to approximate double the amount of counts with the counts limited to +8 for each number (1/2/3/4/5etc)
Again, keeping track of the count is NOT hard at all. You could probably track all 10 card values with separate counts pretty easily.

The question is what you're going to to when you have a count of Ace -1 Two +2 Three -1 Four 0 Five -3 Six +1 Seven +1 Eight -1 Nine 0 Ten +1 and you pull a hard 12 vs. 4. Hit, stand or double?
 

chichow

Well-Known Member
#19
Let me start by what some people do now (meaning people that I know and that's far enough).

One person is keeping a Hi-Low count
Another person is keeping a running count of average number of cards with (4) sets: 2-5 / 6-9 / 10's / A's.

The situation above helps because the Hi-Low I believe overweights the 6 among other things. So by combining the Hi-Low and the running (4 set) average has really helped play.

So with a true count of all cards (no negatives needed since there are only 8 of each type of card in DD), I am wondering how much more will that help.

Of course it will help in situations where you know for example:

Player has 11. You know many 10's left and no A's left.
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
#20
chichow said:
Let me start by what some people do now (meaning people that I know and that's far enough).

One person is keeping a Hi-Low count
Another person is keeping a running count of average number of cards with (4) sets: 2-5 / 6-9 / 10's / A's.

The situation above helps because the Hi-Low I believe overweights the 6 among other things. So by combining the Hi-Low and the running (4 set) average has really helped play.

So with a true count of all cards (no negatives needed since there are only 8 of each type of card in DD), I am wondering how much more will that help.

Of course it will help in situations where you know for example:

Player has 11. You know many 10's left and no A's left.
Sounds good if it can be done with a reasonable efficiency.
 
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