unbelievably bad luck

[wvbjplayer]

Could somebody please calculate the odds of my losing $6,800 in approx 100 hours of play, with an average bet of $50, using hi-lo and playing perfect BS? Also the standard deviation.

Thanks much in advance,
wvbjplayer

[ThodorisK]

6800/50= 136 bets in 100 hours? It's enough to make you run away from this casino as it is quite probable you were cheated.

Anyway, check out these calculators: http://www.card-counting.com/blackjack-calculators.htm

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by ThodorisK

6800/50= 136 bets in 100 hours? It's enough to make you run away from this casino as it is quite probable you were cheated.

Anyway, check out these calculators: http://www.card-counting.com/blackjack-calculators.htm

Re check the post. 50 is the average bet not total hands played. Simple early morning error.

[ThodorisK]

Amount lost / average bet = No of bets lost.
i.e. that's the size of the fall in No of bets.

What are you talking about?

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by ThodorisK

Amount lost / average bet = No of bets lost.
i.e. that's the size of the fall in No of bets.

What are you talking about?

He simply asked for the odds of losing X dollars in Y hours at Z bet, also SD. Not N0, SCORE, or anything else.
but then again I am no math wiz so maybe your talking above my understanding.


I dont use hi lo , so if he plays using hi lo, run a sim for him. You will also needs the rules and bankroll

[ThodorisK]

What higher maths are you on about? I just counted his fall in number of bets.

[matt21]

Originally Posted by wvbjplayer

Could somebody please calculate the odds of my losing $6,800 in approx 100 hours of play, with an average bet of $50, using hi-lo and playing perfect BS? Also the standard deviation.

Thanks much in advance,
wvbjplayer

hi there, i am happy to run this for you.
but i need to know:
1. your bet ramp in order to run a sim (how much were you betting at each true count, and details of any wong-in/wong-out points).
2. The game rules
3. You also need to provide an approx number of rounds played per hour.
4. Finally what is the typical pen level in your game
5. Confirm that you are not using any index plays (you said you play perfect BS)
6. Starting bankroll

However, even before i put this through a sim - if your average bet is $50, then you are probably using a $25 standard unit - which would means that you are 272 units down in 100 hours of play. I can tell you right away that is a very possible result and mostly likely within the reach of just 1 standard deviation.

In my sample of 400 hours (although the rules and playing conditions may well differ from yours!) - I had 1 run of +256 units in only 50 hours, a loss of 439 units in 124 hours, and a win of 257 units over the last 130 hours. So the variances (whether positive or negative) are not vastly different from your 100-hour result.

Anyways if you are happy to provide the above info, then i will try to run it through a sim for you and let you know ROR, odds and SD

[ThodorisK]

These swings in so little time are within 1 sd? I dont believe that even if you all agree with it.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by ThodorisK

These swings in so little time are within 1 sd? I dont believe that even if you all agree with it.

I think you are mistaken and without understanding... but for benefit of doubt, what was your typical topBet amount and estimated frequency thereof? zg

[matt21]

Originally Posted by ThodorisK

These swings in so little time are within 1 sd? I dont believe that even if you all agree with it.

Hi ThodorisK
For my play-all playing conditions, one standard deviation for 100 hours (playing 100 hands/hour) is close to 300 units. so yes, all of these results are within (or close to) 1 std dev - well except maybe for the first 50 hours - on that one i was just extremely lucky - thank God it was positive variance!!