playing free table play coupon

[ohbehave]

I have a $75 one-time bet coupon I have to use by friday.

My preference would be to sit at a $5 table and play it when the count was favorable. However, this property doesn't have $5 tables except on rare occasion. So I'm trying to decide how to play the coupon.

Sit at a $10 table that I'm not really comfortable doing yet or play a different game. I'm thinking either the dealer bet at baccarat or red/black on roulette.

How would you play it in my situation?

[standard toaster]

odds bet in craps is your best bet
its the best bet in the house and should always be your one time hit

[Sonny]

Is the coupon only good on even money bets? If so, go with the odds bet like ST mentioned above. If not, betting a single number at roulette will give you most of the value from the coupon.

-Sonny-

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Is the coupon only good on even money bets? If so, go with the odds bet like ST mentioned above. If not, betting a single number at roulette will give you most of the value from the coupon.

-Sonny-

i'd love to hear the reasoning behind that, in simple enough terms that even i could understand.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

i'd love to hear the reasoning behind that, in simple enough terms that even i could understand.

Basically the casino is giving you a free shot. You generally want to look for the opportunity that has the highest positive variance. It costs you nothing to play so you might as well shoot for the stars! Think of it this way: Would you rather flip a coin for a chance to win $1 (but lose nothing) or would you rather have a free lottery ticket? Depending on the payout structure, the lottery probably has the better EV.

-Sonny-

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Basically the casino is giving you a free shot. You generally want to look for the opportunity that has the highest positive variance. It costs you nothing to play so you might as well shoot for the stars! Think of it this way: Would you rather flip a coin for a chance to win $1 (but lose nothing) or would you rather have a free lottery ticket? Depending on the payout structure, the lottery probably has the better EV.

-Sonny-

thank you Sonny. not trying to be argumentative just a further consideration.
i mean i know with coupons there is some maths advantage (per Grosjean).
kind of it's beyond me the how and why of it. and i guess above you tryed and simplified the reasoning to where i could understand it (i appreciate that). i don't doubt the maths even if i haven't went to the point of understanding it.
thing is consider this argument which is how i used to look at it. please if you willl point out the flaw in my reasoning and maybe i'll see the light, lol.
like when i had a lot of opportunities to play match plays, i always chose blackjack. basically for the simple reason that the house edge was lowest for blackjack compared to any other game in the house. i didn't look at losing the coupon as costing me nothing, i looked at it as my money, lol. (at the time i had a rather steady flow of them). back in the day, i was able to get a total of $200 per month in match play tokens that came in $25 increments. well anyway what i'd do is try and bet a token or two when the advantage was high. so but anyway if i imagine betting one of those tokens on some number on the roulette wheel or on odds in craps i find it difficult to separate the act of doing so with match plays as opposed to using 'my' paid for chips.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

i didn't look at losing the coupon as costing me nothing, i looked at it as my money, lol.

That’s the issue right there. The coupon isn’t money. By itself it isn’t worth anything. It’s just a piece of paper. You have to look at its value. It only has value when you use it. The way you decide to use it will determine its value.

If some guy offers to buy it for $5 then its present value is $5. If you plan to use the coupon at blackjack then you will lose it a little more than half the time. That gives the coupon a value of about half of its denomination (around $12.50 for a $25 coupon). If you bring that same coupon to the roulette table and bet on a single number then its value jumps to about 92% of its face value (about $23 for a $25 coupon). You’ve almost doubled the value of your coupon! Instead of losing half of it you are keeping almost all of it. That means 92% of that coupon really is “your” money until the ball lands.

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

…if i imagine betting one of those tokens on some number on the roulette wheel or on odds in craps i find it difficult to separate the act of doing so with match plays as opposed to using 'my' paid for chips.

The difference is that you didn’t pay for the coupon, and you can’t just cash it in. When you buy a $25 chip it has an assumed $25 value because you can (presumably) redeem it at any time for $25 in cash. If you lose it at roulette, you just lost $25 of your money. The coupon did not cost anything and it cannot be cashed in, it must be wagered. Therefore its value is determined by how you use it.

-Sonny-

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

i always chose blackjack. basically for the simple reason that the house edge was lowest for blackjack compared to any other game in the house.

Here is the flaw in your reasoning.

The house edge for blackjack is low, but it is not because you win very frequently. It is because you tend to win more when you win. If you were forbidden from doubling or splitting, the house edge on blackjack would be very large - 7% or so. It is because you can put more money down on good hands that your house edge shrinks to 0.5%.

If you put down $1 on a hand of blackjack, you're going to lose that $1 about 49% of the time, and only win money about 43% of the time (the remainder is pushed). So if you lose your coupon whether you win, push, or lose (which is often the case), blackjack only gives you a 43% value. If you get to keep the coupon if you push, you'll have a 0.43/(1-0.06) = 46% value.

Compare that with craps, for which the house edge is larger, but the low house edge is because of a very high winning percentage - the probability of pushing is only 3% on don't pass, so you have a winning percentage of 48% and a losing percentage of 49%. Your coupon now has 48% of its face value if you lose it on a push, and 49% of its value if you keep it on a push.

If you're restricted to even-money bets only (which I believe are the most popular by far), don't pass in craps is the best bet because it has the highest winning percentage. Blackjack presents multiple problems:

(1) If you get a blackjack with an even money coupon, you may only get paid even money on it.

(2) Basic strategy for doubling and splitting change with coupon play (see Grosjean's treatise on coupons and funny chips for details).

(3) Your winning percentage is lower than that of craps.

[FLASH1296]

... betting on "bank" at baccarat.

That is because the bank bet wins nearly 52% of the time.

The edge that the house has is a remarkably low 1.16%, and that is due entirely to the 5% "commission" taken from your winnings. If you bet $75 and win you will receive $75 minus the 5% commission, so your net gain is $71.25

So ... If your goal is to find the most likely winning play, this is the clear choice as no other casino bet wins over 50% of the time.

[FLASH1296]

This excellent work by mathematician/pro-gambler James Grosjean, may be download from me:

"Beyond Coupons"

http://www.mediafire.com/?ey6uettmk3l

Here are two other interesting things to read:

"Scavenger Blackjack"

http://www.mediafire.com/?99sgyzlnnef

"Blackjack_Interview with Al Francesco"

http://www.mediafire.com/?bycjnzd4nmx